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August 12, 2014
Commodity Program Papers
with their marketing
and risk management decisions. Therisk of loss in trading futures … 2010/11 was $5.70. The MYA 2009/10 price was
below the statute … setting 2014
Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) on wheat …
June 20, 2016
Financial Management
A farm’s net income measures its ability to cover the cost of crop inputs, fuel, and wages along with
costs of land and equipment assets. Over time farms must maintain a positive net income to remain in business
and cover family living expenses. Additionally, a farm’s viability is affected by how its net income compares to
other operations. Crop production is a competitive industry. Farms compete indirectly with one another through
crop markets and directly over land. More profitable farms are more capable o …
September 15, 2021
Fed Cattle Pricing
DISCOVERY, DIVERGENT INCENTIVES, RISK MANAGEMENT,
AND FUTURE … well-informed trade; better manage
risk; and inform policy and regulatory … Marketing Cost, Flexibility, & Risk Management; 3)
Market Information …
January 14, 2016
Southern Plains, Weekly
Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015
Data Source … and Very Poor, Weekly
Avg. 2009-13 2014 2015
Data Source … 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
$ Per Cow
ESTIMATED …
September 6, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
State University that these USDA projections for “new crop” MY 2016/17 have a 55% probability of
occurring.
Four Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
To represent possible alternative outcomes from the USDA’s August 10th projection, four potential KSU‐
Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU Scenario 1) “Lower U.S. Production” Scenario (25% probability) assumes for “new crop” MY 2017/18
that the following occurs. This scenario assumes that there will be 46.657 ma planted, 83.72% harvested‐to‐
planted, 37.500 ma harvested, 44.0 bu/ac yield, 1.650 bb production, 2.984 bb total supplies, 975 mb exports,
150 mb feed & residual use, 2.141 bb total use, 843 mb ending stocks, 39.37% stocks/use, & $5.20 /bu U.S.
wheat average price.
KSU Scenario 2) “Lower U.S. Wheat Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes the following for “new
crop” MY 2017/18: Production of 1.739 bb (same as the USDA), 3.074 bb total supplies, 800 mb exports, 150
mb feed & residual use, 1.966 bb total use, 1.108 bb ending stocks, 56.36% stocks/use, & $3.75 /bu U.S. wheat
average price;
KSU Scenario 3) “Higher U.S. Wheat Exports” Scenario (5% probability) assumes the following for “new
crop” MY 2017/18: Production of 1.739 bb (same as the USDA), 3.074 bb total supplies, 1.200 bb exports, 150
mb feed & residual use, 2.366 bb total use, 708 mb ending stocks, 29.92% stocks/use, & $6.00 /bu U.S. wheat
average price;
KSU Scenario 4) “Wildcard Foreign Events” Scenario (5% probability) assumes the following for “new
crop” MY 2017/18: Production of 1.739 bb (same as the USDA), 3.074 bb total supplies, less than 700 mb
exports, 150 mb feed & residual use, less than 1.800 bb total use, more than 1.300 bb ending stocks, greater
than 65% stocks/use, & less than $3.00 /bu U.S. wheat average price;
…
December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between MARCH 2017 and JULY 2017 CME Kansas
Wheat futures contracts on Wednesday, December 28th was $0.22 ½ per bushel (i.e., $4.32 for JULY 2017 less
$4.09 ½ for MARCH 2017 Wheat), or $0.05625 per bushel per month. This compares to commercial storage
charges in Kansas grain elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before interest or
additional handling costs or other discounts are accounted for.
Given these futures carrying charges, commercial storage of wheat from MARCH 2017 to JULY 2017 would
at least break even and/or cover costs (i.e., carry of $0.05625 /bu/mo is greater than $0.04‐$0.05 /bu/mo
storage cost) IF local cash wheat basis levels would at least stay unchanged and not weaken further over the
March‐July 2017 period. Along these same lines of reasoning, it may be profitable to actually place a stor …
April 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
DECEMBER (DEC) 2017 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures traded as high as $5.90 ¼ on
April 20, 2016, and $5.90 on June 8, 2016 before declining approximately $0.90 per bushel by early
July. Then, following lows of $4.74 per bushel on August 31st, $4.72 ½ on October 12th, and $4.59 ½
DEC 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
February 18, 2016 – April 18, 2017
Close = $4.74 ¼ on 4/18/2017
MAY 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
February 18, 2016 – April 18, 2017
Close = $4.19 ¼ on 4/18/2017
Page | 4
on December 1, 2016, DEC 2017 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures prices traded up to a high
of $5.30 ¾ on February 16, 2017. From that February 16th high, DEC 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat
futures then traded lower – down to a low of $4.68 ½ on March 31st and $4.69 on April 18th before
closing at $4.74 ¼ that same day (Figure 1).
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between MAY 2017 and JULY 2017 CME Kansas Wheat
futures contracts on Tuesday, April 18th was $0.12 ¾ per bushel (i.e., $4.32 for JULY 2017 less $4.19 ¼ for MAY
2017 Wheat), or $0.06375 per bushel per month. This compares to commercial storage charges in Kansas grain
elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before interest or additional handling costs or
other discounts are accounted for.
Given these futures carrying charges, commercial storage of wheat from MAY 2017 to JULY 2017 would at
least break even and/or cover costs (i.e., carry of $0.06375 /bu/mo is greater than $0.04‐$0.05 /bu/mo storage
cost) IF local cash wheat basis levels would at least stay unchanged and not weaken further over the May‐July
2017 period. Along this same lines of reasoning, it may be profitable to actually place a stor …
March 1, 2015
USDA METSS Project
the UK (Figure 1). Between 2009 and 2014, UK’s PPP has … expenditure on U.S. goods, an event that increases during recessionary … economic stimulant. When these events shift the demand for U.S …
November 1, 2012
necessarily seeking to maximize profits as core goal …
• Returns … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/FinishingReturns/default.asp)
Representative Barometer for Trends in Profitability
August 12’: -$253.16/steer … Monthly
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mil. Pounds
Japan
Canada
Mexico
South
Korea
I-N-35
10/12/12Livestock …
September 27, 2012
necessarily seeking to maximize profits as core goal …
• Returns … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/FinishingReturns/default.asp)
Representative Barometer for Trends in Profitability
July -12: -$265.35/steer … Monthly
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mil. Pounds
Japan
Canada
Mexico
South
Korea
I-N-35
09/12/12Livestock …