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May 2, 2019
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 … Stockers
http://www.beefbasis.com/ForecastingTools/ValueofGain/tabid/1132/Default.aspx
• Joplin, MO 5/1/19 … Stockers
http://www.beefbasis.com/ForecastingTools/ValueofGain/tabid/1132/Default.aspx
• Joplin, MO 5/1/19 …
August 18, 2017
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
Mil. Head
HEIFERS … 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
$ Per … USE: K-State Feeder Cattle Risk Mgmt Tool.xlsx
http://www.ag …
March 5, 2010
last year
5% below 2004-2008 average
Driven by reduced … last year
4% below 2004-2008 average
Improved export … year
12% below 2004-2008 average
BUT: Stocks …
June 15, 2010
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Mil. Pounds
Japan
Canada
Mexico
South
Korea
I-N-35
06/11/10Data … DEC
Mil. Head
Avg.
2004-
2008
2009
2010
C-N-10
05/21/10
Livestock … 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
$ Per Cwt
Steer
Price
Breakeven
Projected
Breakeven
C-P-21
06/01/10
Latest …
April 19, 2012
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
$ Per Cow
C-P-66
03/21/12Livestock … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/budgets/production/default.asp)
Scenario1: FARPI Adjusted … • Accounting and economic profit divergence
– Value of …
September 28, 2023
OUTLOOK
http://www.agmanager.info/about/
contributors/individual/tonsor.asp
Take-Home Summary
1.Supply … 28.92
25
27
29
31
33
35
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023
Mil … 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 …
March 26, 2013
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/budgets/production/default.asp#Beef Cattle
January Cattle … 3/25/13’
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/cattle/prices/default.asp
8
As of: 2/11/13’
http … 2/11/13’
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/cattle/prices/default.asp
Drop of $10-15/cwt
between …
June 21, 2022
2022
http://www.agmanager.
info/about/contributors/
individual/tonsor.asp
Quarterly Forecasts (LMIC … Center
C-N-40
01/31/22
https://www.agmanager.info/sites/default/files/pdf/KSU
_FactSheet_CattleCycle_01-31-17.pdf
C-P-54
06/14/22
$193.17
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
JAN …
March 1, 2013
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/budgets/production/default.asp#Beef Cattle
Economic … http://www.beefbasis.com/ForecastingTools/ValueofGain/tabid/1132/Default.aspx
Economic Outlook … http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/outlook/newsletters/FinishingReturns/default.asp
• Excess capacity concerns …
October 1, 2019
2019 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
$ Per Cow
ESTIMATED … VOG: $95.62/cwt–Compare to COG & Assess “stomach” for volatility
USDA LRP Changes July 1
(https://www.rma.usda.gov/News‐Room/Press/Press‐Releases/2019‐News/USDA‐Announces‐Enhancements‐to‐Livestock‐and‐Dairy‐Insurance‐Programs)
https://www.agmanager.info/k‐state‐feeder‐cattle‐risk‐management‐tool
https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs‐and‐services/disaster‐assistance‐program/livestock‐indemnity/index
The Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018 (the 2018 Farm Bill) authorized the Livestock Indemnity Program (LIP) to provide benefits to eligible livestock owners or contract growers for livestock deaths in excess of normal mortality caused by eligible loss conditions, including eligible adverse weather, eligible disease and attacks by animals reintroduced into the wild by the federal government or protected by federal law, including wolves and avian predators. In addition, LIP provides assistance to eligible livestock owners that must sell livestock at a reduced price because of an injury from an eligible loss condition.
https://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs‐and‐services/disaster‐assistance‐program/livestock‐indemnity/index
“Yes …