Search
Displaying 611 - 620 of 694
Summary Book - All Counties
68
V. LIVESTOCK ENTERPRISE ANALYSIS
Cow-Calf … 87
Cow-Calf Management Survey … 4,546
Sheep3
Swine4
Poultry and Eggs5
Other Livestock/Hedging6 396
Custom Feeding7 …
Summary Book - All Counties
80
V. LIVESTOCK ENTERPRISE ANALYSISLivestock Enterprise Comparison (NW … 87
Livestock Enterprise Comparison (State … 99
Cow-Calf Management Survey …
Summary Book - All Counties
80
V. LIVESTOCK ENTE RPRISE ANALYSIS
Lives … 97
Cow-Calf Management Survey … 6
Poultry and Eggs5
Other Livestock/Hedging6 525
Custom Feeding7 …
May 2, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… s that could affect the U.S. corn market in 2017 include the following: First, the pace and timing of
U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which had been placed in storage after fall harvest and
likely has been held for sale through the winter into at least early spring 2017. Second, anticipation of
continued strong use of 2016 crop U.S. corn for domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock feeding
through spring‐summer 2017. Third, at least moderate continued strength in U.S. corn exports – at least until
what is forecast to be a sizable 2nd crop of corn from South America becomes available on global markets
during Summer 2017. And fourth, the always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or
financial system disruptions that could impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017. World
geo‐political events have the potential to provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets – with
the impact on the direction of U.S. and World corn markets being difficult to anticipate depending on which
countries may be involved and their role in global corn export trade.
Page | 2
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18. With early USDA projections of 2017 U.S. corn
plantings of 89.996 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 4.0 ma). Harvested acres of approximately 82.4 ma (down
4.35 ma) are forecast, with projected yields of 170.7 bu/ac (vs the record high of 174.6 in 2016), leading to a
2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to be 14.065 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.435 bb – down 505 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.220 bb – down 400 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.215 bb (15.58% S/U) – down from 2.320 bb (15.87% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected by the USDA to average $3.50 /bu – up from a midpoint estimate of $3.40 /bu
from “current” MY 2016/17 – but within the range of $3.25‐$3.55 /bu for this marketing year. This scenario is
given a 55% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.
Alternative KSU Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐
demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood
of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than projected by the USDA in the February 23‐24, 2017
Agricultural Outlook Forum for “next crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.556 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes:
88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.556 bb production, 15.926 bb total
supplies, 14.185 bb total use, 1.741 bb ending stocks, 12.27% S/U, & $3.85 /bu U.S. corn average price for
“next crop” MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “165.0 bu/ac – 13.370 bb” Scenario (15% probability) assumes:
88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 165.0 bu/ac yield, 13.370 bb production, 15.740 bb total supplies,
14.080 bb total use, 1.660 bb ending stocks, 11.21% S/U, & $4.05 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “150.0 bu/ac – 12.155 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
88.500 ma planted, 81.031 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.155 bb production, 14.525 bb total supplies,
13.460 bb total use, 1.065 bb ending stocks, 7.91% S/U, & $4.75 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY
2017/18;
World Corn Supply‐Demand: Record high World corn production of 1,053.8 million metric tons (mmt) is
projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 9.4% from 963.3 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 3.7% from 1,016.0 mmt
in MY 2014/15. Record high World corn total supplies of 1,265.6 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17,
up from 1,173.1 mmt in MY 2015/16, and from 1,190.8 mmt in MY 2014/15.
World corn exports of 154.4 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 28.7% from 120.0 mmt in MY
2015/16, and up 8.6% from 142.2 mmt in MY 2014/15. Projected record high World corn ending stocks of
223.0 mmt (21.4% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 211.8 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2015/16, and
from 209.8 mmt (21.4% S/U) in MY 2014/15.
Although World corn ending stocks are projected to be a record high in “current” MY 2016/17 at 223.0 mmt,
World corn percent ending stocks‐to‐use are forecast to actually decline marginally to 21.4%. Strong World
demand for corn at low prices is expected to continue – especially in the United States, Argentina, Mexico,
Southeast Asia, China, Ukraine, and other Former Soviet Union countries (less Ukraine). An ongoing, strong
demand base for corn could help cause sharply increased corn market volatility in the summer of 2017 IF any
serious threats emerge to the 2017 U.S. corn crop.
Page | 3
I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
April 11th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On April 11th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its April 2017 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2014/15, 2015/16, and “current crop” 2016/17 marketing years (MY) for corn.
The “current” MY 2016/17 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2016 and will last through August 31, 2017.
On March 31st, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) (https://www.nass.usda.gov/) released
it’s Prospective Plantings (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/ProsPlan/ProsPlan‐03‐31‐2017.pdf) and Grain Stocks
(http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/GraiStoc/GraiStoc‐03‐31‐2017.pdf) reports. These USDA reports were preceded by
the USDA 2017 Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Virginia on February 23‐24, 2017
(https://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/). At this forum the USDA provided an initial set of supply‐demand and price
forecasts for U.S. corn and other crops for the upcoming 2017/18 marketing year. “Next crop” MY 2016/17 for
U.S. corn will begin on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31, 2018.
Following its normal procedures, the next supply‐demand and price forecasts for “next crop” 2017/18
from the USDA will be released in the May 10, 2017 USDA WASDE report.
CME MAY 2017 & DECEMBER 2017 Corn Futures Trends
MAY 2017 CME Corn Futures
Following a low of $3.32 1/2 on August 31, 2016, MAY 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices trended up to a high of $3.75 ¾ on October 20, 2016 (Figure 1). Following that high, MAY 2017
corn futures prices declined to a low of $3.49 ¼ on December 1, 2016, before moving to an eventual high of
$3.87 ¼ on February 16, 2017. Since then, MARCH 2017 corn futures first trended lower to $3.67 ¼ on
February 27th, and then to a high of $3.86 ¼ on February 28th before closing at $3.82 on March 1, 2017
DECEMBER 2017 CME Corn Futures
In a similar trading pattern to MARCH 2017 Corn futures, following a low of $3.58 1/2 on August 31, 2016,
DECEMBER 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures prices trended up to a high of $3.95 ½ on
October 20, 2016 (Figure 1). Following that high, DECEMBER 2017 corn futures prices declined to lows of
$3.74 ¼ on November 15th and $3.74 ½ on December 1, 2016, before moving to an eventual high of $4.03 ¾ on
February 16, 2017. Since then, DECEMBER 2017 corn futures first trended lower to $3.88 on February 27th,
and then to a high of $4.04 on February 28th before closing at $4.01 ¼ on March 1, 2017.
CME Corn Futures 2017 Contract Spreads
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between MARCH 2017 and JULY 2017 corn futures on
Wednesday, March 1st was $0.16 ¾ per bushel (i.e., $3.89 ¼ for JULY 2017 Corn less $3.75 ¾ for MARCH 2017
Corn), or $0.0419 per bushel per month. This compares to commercial grain storage charges in Kansas grain
elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before accounting for interest or additional
handling costs or other discounts. The MARCH 2017 Corn futures contract was entering the early stages of its
Page | 4
contract delivery period at that time, with grain elevators “rolling” to the MAY 2017 Corn futures contract for
local basis determination purposes. The spread from the MAY 2017 to JULY 2017 Corn futures contracts was
$0.07 ¼ ($3.89 ¼ ‐ $3.82) or $0.03625 per month.
Figure 1. MAY 2017 & DECEMBER 2017 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts (as of May 2, 2017)
ne …
May 28, 2010
Energy
various forms is used in livestock feed rations as a competitive … Projections of grain and livestock supply, use and
agricultural … analysis. United
States corn and livestock supply-use projections were …
May 28, 2010
Cash Prices & Marketing Strategies
various forms is used in livestock feed rations as a competitive … Projections of grain and livestock supply, use and
agricultural … analysis. United
States corn and livestock supply-use projections were …
August 23, 2021
Monthly Meat Demand Monitor (Prior Years)
MDM is a monthly online
survey with a sample of over 2,000 … report, insights from the MDM surveys conducted between January … report. Data from over 12,000 survey respondents are used
to …
April 30, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand – Focus on “New Crop” 2015/16 Projections
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
In the March 31, 2015 USDA Prospective Plantings report the USDA projected that 2015 U.S. corn total
planted acreage would be 89.199 million acres (ma), down 2.398 ma (down 1.5%) from 90.597 ma in 2014,
down 6.166 ma (‐6.5%) from 95.365 ma in 2013, down 8.092 ma (‐8.3%) from 97.291 ma in 2012, and down
from 91.921 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 3).
Assuming the average harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. corn over the 2007‐2014 period of 91.6%,
2015 U.S. corn harvested acreage would be 81.706 ma, down 1.430 ma (‐1.7%) from 83.136 ma in 2014, down
5.745 ma (‐6.6%) from 87.451 ma in 2013, down 5.659 ma (‐6.5%) from 87.365 ma in 2012, and down from
83.981 ma in 2011.
The 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 171.0 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is a record high and unchanged from
the January‐March USDA reports, but is higher than the 166.8 bu/ac estimate in the 2015 USDA Agricultural
Outlook Forum estimate given on February 19‐20, 2015 in Arlington, Virginia (Table 1 and Figure 4). This early
2015 USDA projection of 166.8 bu/ac is up from 158.1 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of
123.1 bu/ac., 147.2 bu/ac in 2011, 152.8 bu/ac in 2010, and and up from the previous record high of 164.7
bu/ac in 2009.
Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (89.199 ma – from the USDA),
harvested acreage (81.706 ma – a KSU assumption based on recent historic percent harvested‐to‐planted
acres), and yield (166.8 ma – USDA), 2015 U.S. corn production would be 13.629 billion bushels (bb) – down
from the record high of 14.206 bb 2014, and the previous record high of 13.829 bb in 2013 – but up from
10.755 bb in 2012, 12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 bb in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009 (Table 1).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are a record high 15.472
bb – resulting from beginning stocks of 1.232 bb, projected 2014 production of 14.216 bb, and projected
imports of 25 million bushel (mb) (Table 1 and Figure 5). For “new crop” MY 2015/16, Total supplies are
expected to be “equal‐or‐marginally higher at 15.481 bb – resulting from beginning stocks of 1.827 bb,
projected 2015 production of 13.629 bb, and projected imports of 25 million bushel (mb) in “new crop” MY
2015/16 (Table 1). Total supplies of near 15.5 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop” MY would
both be record highs relative to recent years, being comparable to 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY
2008/09, 14.774 bb in MY 2009/10, 14.182 bb in MY 2010/11, 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.904 bb in “short
crop” MY 2012/13, and 14.686 bb in MY 2013/14.
Page | 5
The implicit USDA forecast of beginning stocks of 1.827 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 (equal to ending
stocks from “current year” MY 2014/15) are up substantially from 1.232 bb in beginning stocks in “current
crop” MY 2014/15, 821 mb in MY 2013/14, 989 mb in MY 2012/13, and 1.128 bb in MY 2011/12, and at least
moderately larger than 1.708 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.673 bb in MY 2009/10, and 1.624 bb in MY 2008/09. This
amount of beginning stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 of 1.827 bb is up considerably from the low of 426 mb
that occurred in MY 1996/97, and the highest since 1.967 bb in MY 2006/07 and 2.114 bb in MY 2005/07
(Table 1 and Figure 5).
Imports of 25 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be down from 36 mb in MY 2013/14 (the
2nd highest on record), and are also down sharply from the record high of 160 mb in the drought‐stressed
2012/13 marketing year. The KSU projection of 25 mb in imports in “new crop” MY 2015/16 would be equal to
the amount in “current crop” MY 2014/15. These amounts of U.S. corn imports are comparable to 29 mb in
MY 2011/12, and 28 mb in MY 2010/11.
U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.200 bb in
“current crop” MY 2014/15 is unchanged from March, but down 50 mb from 5.250 bb in February, but still up
from 5.175 bb in January and from 5.150 bb in the December 2014 WASDE report. These adjustments in the
USDA projections since December 2014 are due to a) low corn input prices, b) at least moderate strength in
distillers grains co‐product prices, and c) increased projections of 2015 U.S. gasoline consumption released in
recent months (Table 1 and Figures 6‐7). This projection of 5.200 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from
5.134 bb in MY 2013/14, 4.641 bb in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12. The USDA projected that
5.225 bb of U.S. corn would be used in ethanol production in “new crop” MY 2015/16 at its Agricultural
Outlook Forum on February 19‐20, 2015 in Arlington, Virginia.
Figure 7 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State
University. Assuming 2.83 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn (equaling the calculated conversion
of U.S. corn into ethanol in January 2015), these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected annual rate
of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current crop” MY 2014/15 has ranged from 4.772‐5.374 bb on a
weekly basis since early September 2014 ‐ the beginning of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year. Over
the period of from September 1, 2014 through April 24, 2015, corn usage for ethanol production was been on
pace to reach 5.117 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15. This estimate of 5.117 bb is 83 mb less than the USDA’s
April 9, 2015 WASDE report estimate of 5.200 bb of corn to be used for ethanol production during “current
crop” MY 2014/15, with 34 of 52 weeks (65.4%) of the marketing year completed.
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is p …
March 15, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
El Nino‐La Nina transition”‐ related weather patterns in spring‐summer 2016 with
negative impacts on 2016 crop production, could each still impact corn market prices through summer‐fall
2016. Also, low feedgrain prices have resulted in lower input costs for U.S. and Foreign livestock feeding and
bioenergy us …
March 2, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
e following. First, the pace and timing of
U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which had been placed in storage after fall harvest and
likely has been held for sale through the winter into at least early spring 2017. Second, anticipation of
continued strong use of 2016 crop U.S. corn for domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock feeding
through spring‐summer 2017. Third, at least moderate continued strength in U.S. corn exports – driven partly
by the availability of exportable corn supplies from South America through spring 2017. And fourth, the
always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that could
impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017. World geo‐political events could provide an
unanticipated “shock” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets – with the impact on the direction of U.S.
and World corn markets being difficult to anticipate.
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18. With early USDA projections of 2017 U.S. corn
plantings of 90.000 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 4.004 ma), harvested acres of 82.400 ma (down 4.348 ma),
projected yields of 170.7 bu/ac (vs the record high of 174.6 in 2016), 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to
be 14.065 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies of 16.435 bb – down 505 mb from last year’s record
high). Total use is forecast at 14.220 bb – down 400 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.215 bb (15.58% S/U) – down from 2.320 bb (15.87% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected by the USDA to average $3.50 /bu – up from a midpoint estimate of $3.40 /bu
from a year ago – but within the range of $3.20‐$3.60 /bu for “current” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a
55% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.
Alternative KSU Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐
demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood
Page | 2
of alternative, lower U.S. corn yields and production than projected by the USDA in the February 23‐24, 2017
Agricultural Outlook Forum for “next crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.786 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes:
90.000 ma planted, 82.400 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.786 bb production, 16.156 bb total
supplies, 14.185 bb total use, 1.971 bb ending stocks, 13.89% S/U, & $3.65 /bu U.S. corn average price for
“next crop” MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “165.0 bu/ac – 13.596 bb” Scenario (15% probability) assumes:
90.000 ma planted, 82.400 ma harvested, 165.0 bu/ac yield, 13.596 bb production, 15.966 bb total supplies,
14.080 bb total use, 1.886 bb ending stocks, 13.39% S/U, & $3.70 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “150.0 bu/ac – 12.360 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
90.000 ma planted, 82.300 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.3605 bb production, 14.680 bb total supplies,
13.460 bb total use, 1.220 bb ending stocks, 8.92% S/U, & $4.55 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY
2017/18;
World Corn Supply‐Demand: Record high World corn production of 1,040.2 million metric tons (mmt) is
projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 8.3% from 960.7 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 2.4% from 1,015.6 mmt
in MY 2014/15. Record high World corn total supplies of 1,250.6 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17,
up from 1,170.5 mmt in MY 2015/16, and from 1,190.3 mmt in MY 2014/15.
World corn exports of 149.0 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 23.0% from 121.1 mmt in MY
2015/16, and up 4.8% from 142.2 mmt in MY 2014/15. Projected record high World corn ending stocks of
217.6 mmt (21.1% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 210.4 mmt (21.9% S/U) in MY 2015/16, and
from 209.8 mmt (21.4% S/U) in MY 2014/15.
Although World corn ending stocks are projected to be a record high in “current” MY 2016/17 at 217.6 mmt,
World corn percent ending stocks‐to‐use are forecast to actually decline marginally to 21.1%. Strong World
demand for corn at low prices is expected to continue – especially in the United States, Argentina, Mexico,
Southeast Asia, China, Ukraine, and other Former Soviet Union countries (less Ukraine). Ongoing, strong
demand could cause sharply increased corn market volatility in the summer of 2017 IF any threats to the 2017
U.S. crop emerge.
…