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July 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
n for these two
countries will be even higher in “new crop” MY 2014/15 – up to 145.0 mmt, which would be up 10.4% over the
three year period. This compares to U.S. soybean production of 82.6 mmt in MY 2012/13, 89.5 mmt in
“current” MY 2013/14, and a projected amount of 103.4 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/14 – up 25.3% over the
same three year period. Also, the key market demand “driver” of Chinese soybean imports were estimated to
be 59.9 mb in MY 2012/13, and 69.0 mb in “current” MY 2013/14, and are projected to be 73.0 mb in “new
crop” MY 2014/15 – up 21.9% over the same three marketing years.
It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least sustainability
of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels by the USDA is necessary for continuance of the
historically high World soybean prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year. Rumors persist of
slowing Chinese soybean import demand due to swine industry production problems or other broad,
systematic economi …
December 18, 2020
Grain Market Outlook
rate of 27.2 mb
shipped to meet the USDA projection of 2.200 … the U.S. dollar relative to other world currencies.
There …
October 1, 2023
2023 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
In Ourselves, and Helping Others
Photo: Copyright istock.com/roman023
MICHIGAN … effective communication with others.• Organize and promote … you going?• Who are you meeting?• What might you encounter?• …
General Sessions
markets is widely-cited by other academic researchers and … allow obligated parties to meet their individual
mandates … diesel, biogas, etc.), to meet the volumes
of total renewable …
August 20, 2013
Land Buying and Valuing
1250*(1.03) = $1287.50. On the other hand, it could be that Vm … instances of land prices (or other input prices)
being “too … exactly opposite of each other; a value of 1 indicates that …
August 1, 2011
Land Buying and Valuing
1250*(1.03) = $1287.50. On the other hand, it could be that Vm … instances of land prices (or other input prices)
being “too … exactly opposite of each other; a value of 1 indicates that …
October 1, 2015
USDA METSS Project
1)
where S is the nominal exchange rate, P is the U.S. price level and P* is the price level in the country of
interest, say Ghana. When the real exchange rate is appreciating, it means the U.S. price of the bundle
3
of goods in the basket is increasing relative to the Ghanaian price. Now, when the real exchange rates
appreciates, then the real value of the dollar has depreciated, suggesting a decline in its purchasing
power, relatively speaking.
To get to know how Q affects the poverty level, it is necessary to try to understand the factors that
influence changes in Q. The real exchange rate between the currencies of the two countries may
change when there is a change in the relative demand for U.S. goods as a result of preference shift,
leading to total expenditure on U.S. goods increasing. The shift may arise from two principal sources.
An increase in global private and public demand for U.S. goods is one source of such shifts. This shift is
exacerbated when the relative increase in demand for U.S. goods is much higher than the increase in
demand for Ghana goods. In an increasingly interconnected world, imports tend to account increasing
share of development countries’ consumption. Another source of the shift is an increase in U.S.
Government expenditure on U.S. goods, an event that increases during recessionary periods in attempts
to boost demand as an economic stimulant. When these events shift the demand for U.S. goods,
equilibrium can only be restored if the relative price of U.S. goods vis‐à‐vis Ghana goods rose. From
Equation (1), this implies a decline in Q, i.e., the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has increased
relative to the Ghana cedi. The corollary is true: that the purchasing power of the Ghana cedi has
declined and its purchasing power has fallen.
4
Figure 1: Purchasing Power Parities for UK and Euro Zone per US Dollar (2009‐2014)
Another source of change in the real exchange rate is a change in relative output supply in the U.S.
significantly exceeding that of Ghana. Output supply changes are a function of resource productivity‐
enhancing technologies, such as those for labor and capital. Tractors and other farm production
equipment are some of the visible productivity‐enhancing technologies that allow U.S. agriculture, for
example, to dwarf that of Ghana. One outcome of increasing productivity is increasing incomes and the
country with the highest relative productivity increase will also have the highest relative income
increase. Because the higher incomes often lead to increased consumption of imports, relative prices in
the U.S. need to fall to restore equilibrium. This fall in relative prices lead to an increase in Q and a fall
in the U.S. dollar in real terms. Conversely, Ghana’s relative productivity disadvantage suggests the
need for appreciation of the Ghana cedi in order to restore equilibrium, leading to an increase in
Ghana’s prices relative to those in the U.S., i.e., the Ghana cedi rises in real terms. The foregoing works
well if the goods and services in the basket of goods being compared between the two countries are all
traded. However, a fair proportion of goods in the basket of developing countries tend to be non‐
traded.
Purchasing Power Parity
0.765
0.770
0.775
0.780
0.785
0.790
0.795
0.800
0.63
0.64
0.65
0.66
0.67
0.68
0.69
0.7
0.71
2009 …
Summary Book - All Counties
2,183 FARM UNITS plus 581 OTHERS IN PARTNERSHIPS, ETC. = 2,764 … 33-49
Can My Farm Meet the Test … 1,118
Poultry and Eggs5 0
Other Livestock/Hedging6 2,625
Custom …
November 20, 2014
Commodity Program Papers
crop-share or flex-rent or other arrangement where risk is … The condition that farmers meet conservation compliance requirements …