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July 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… … une, and from 4.14% in MY 2013/14).
The USDA forecast that “new crop” MY 2014/15 average prices will be $9.50‐$11.50 with a midpoint of $10.50
– down $0.25 /bu from June. It is important to remember that the first actual survey‐based projection of 2014 …
October 1, 2015
USDA METSS Project
8
elimination, i.e., they are all the goods that are not food, housing nor durables. They include education,
health care, beauty care and grooming services, firewood, roofing thatch, household fuel and
transportation. It is obvious that for the study location, the durable goods category have the most
traded goods while the other product categories comprise essentially non‐trade goods.
Consumption expenditure data in Ghana cedi were collected from about 4,410 households in the study
area. To present the average daily household per capita expenditure in U.S. dollar denominated PPP
2005 …
August 23, 2021
Monthly Meat Demand Monitor (Prior Years)
MDM is a monthly online
survey with a sample of over 2,000 … report, insights from the MDM surveys conducted between January … report. Data from over 12,000 survey respondents are used
to …
August 1, 2024
General Sessions
OUTLOOK
http://www.agmanager.info/about/contributors/individual/tonsor.asp
Kickoff Beef‐Cattle SummarySupply Dynamics• … 2023 price was below 2018
What about specific city‐product markets (Using CPI, All Items deflator)?
Lots of Variation Across Products & City‐Markets: consider DALLAS
Obvious demand increases:
2019 (Ground Pork, B. Sausage, Bacon),
2020 (Loin, Ribs, Shoulder, Ground Pork, D. Sausage, Bacon, PORK),
2021 (None),
2022 (Ground Pork),
2023 (Ground Pork)
Obvious demand declines:
2019 & 2020 (None),
2021 (Ground Pork),
2022 (None),
2023 (Loin, B. Sausage)
Consumer Sensitivity to Pork Prices: A 2018‐2023 Comparison of 50 U.S. Retail Markets and 6 Pork Products? (March 2024)
‐2.38 Boise
‐0.76 Miami …
July 15, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
g stocks and ending stocks‐to‐use were also raised to 1.801 bb (up 75 mb)
and 13.5% (up from 12.9%), respectively. The USDA forecast that “new crop” MY 2014/15 average prices will
be $3.65‐$4.35 with a midpoint of $4.00 – down $0.20 /bu from June. As useful at these July report numbers
are, it is important to remember that the first actual survey‐based projection of 2014 …
June 20, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
an prices and reduced export prospects, b) larger
than expected U.S. corn domestic usage in response to low U.S. and World corn prices during January‐early
June, and c) worries about meterologist’s forecasts of hot weather during late June – August 2016 that could
damage 2016 U.S. corn production prospects. The 2016 USDA NASS Acreage report to be released on June
30th will provide updated projections of 2016 U.S. corn planted and harvested acres, and may be a source of
volatility for U.S. corn markets if results vary markedly from pre‐report market expectations.
Other market factors to consider that could affect the U.S. corn market in 2016 include: 1) declining U.S.
farmer resistance to selling 2015 crop corn at lower than hoped for 2016 cash corn prices to‐date as both
winter wheat or fall crop harvests approach requiring both commercial and on‐farm storage space, 2)
continued stronger‐than‐anticipated use of 2015 crop U.S. corn in ethanol production, livestock feeding or
exports resulting from low U.S. feedgrain prices and moderating U.S. dollar values (exports), and 3) the
possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and
other commodity markets – such as unanticipated U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal
Reserve affecting U.S. interest rates, or crucial foreign economic occurrences such as the European Union vote
on British membership. For the early part of “current” 2015/16 marketing year the high value of the U.S.
dollar and prospects for a large 2016 South American corn crop were significant limiting factors for U.S. corn
exports – although developing crop problems in Brazil and declines in the value of U.S. dollar since early
February 2016 have coincided with improved U.S. corn exports in May‐June 2016.
USDA Supply‐Demand & Prices for “Current” MY 2015/16: The USDA made several changes to the U.S. corn
supply‐demand balance sheet for “current crop” MY 2015/16. While the estimate of 2015 U.S. corn
production of 13.601 billion bushels (bb) was unchanged, and total supplies of 15.392 bb for MY 2015/16 were
up 5 million bushels or ‘mb’ due to increased imports. Total use is projected to be 13.685 bb – up 100 million
bushels (mb) due to a 100 mb increase in projected exports – up to 1.825 bb. Ethanol use (5.250 bb), non‐
ethanol Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) use (1.360 bb), and feed and residual use (5.250 bb) were all
unchanged. Ending stocks are forecast to be down 95 mb to 1.708 bb (12.48% S/U) in “current” MY 2015/16 –
down from 1.731 bb (12.59% S/U) in MY 2014/15, but up from 1.232 bb (9.2% S/U) in MY 2013/14. U.S. corn
average cash prices are forecast to be in the range of $3.60‐$3.80 /bu. ($3.70 midpoint) versus $3.70 in MY
2014/15, $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and $6.89 (record high) in MY 2012/13.
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: The USDA projected that 2016 U.S. corn
plantings would equal 93.601 ma – up 5.602 ma from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of approximately
85.893 ma would be up 5.144 ma vs 2015. With projected yields of 168.0 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. corn production is
forecast to be a record high 14.430 bb – up from 13.601 bb in 2015, 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.829 bb in 2013.
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With forecast “new crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 16.178 bb (record high), total use of 14.170 bb (record
high), and projected ending stocks of 2.008 bb (14.17% S/U) – up from 1.708 bb (12.48% S/U) in “current crop”
MY 2015/16 and the highest since 2.114 bb (19.83% S/U) in MY 2004/05 – U.S. corn prices are projected by the
USDA to be in the range of $3.20‐$3.80 (midpoint = $3.50 /bu) – being down from the $3.70 /bu midpoint
estimate for “current” MY 2015/16. This scenario is given a 20% likelihood of occurring by KSU.
KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and
prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming a 1.0 million acre (ma) downward
adjustment in 2016 U.S. corn planted acres from the USDA’s March 31st Prospective Plantings report. A) KSU
“Lower Acres – Trend Yield” Scenario (35% probability) assumes: 92.601 ma planted, 84.508 ma harvested,
164.5 bu/ac trend yield, 13.902 bb production, 15.745 bb total supplies, 13.762 bb total use, 1.983 bb ending
stocks, 14.41% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY 2016/17; B) KSU “Lower Acres –
Moderate Drought” Scenario (25% prob.) assumes: 92.601 ma planted, 84.508 ma harvested, 158.0 bu/ac
yield, 13.352 bb production, 15.200 bb total supplies, 13.622 bb total use, 1.578 bb ending stocks, 11.58% S/U,
& $3.95 /bu U.S. corn price; and C) KSU “Lower Acres – Serious Drought” Scenario (20% prob.) assumes:
92.601 ma planted, 84.508 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.676 bb production, 14.529 bb total supplies,
13.257 bb total use, 1.270 bb ending stocks, 9.58% S/U, & $4.45 /bu U.S. corn price “new crop” MY 2016/17.
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World corn production of 1,011.8 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new
crop” MY 2016/17, up from 966.4 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and down marginally from 1,013.5 mmt
in MY 2014/15. World corn total supplies of 1,218.2 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from
1,174.8 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,189.2 mmt in MY 2014/15. World corn exports of
133.1 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 120.6 mmt in “current crop” MY 2015/16, but
down from 141.7 mmt in MY 2014/15. Projected World corn ending stocks of 205.1 mmt (20.25% S/U) in “new
crop” MY 2016/17 are down from 206.45 mmt (21.3% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2015/16, and from the record
high of 208.4 mmt (21.25% S/U) in MY 2014/15.
…
July 17, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
…
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predominates in local Kansas grain markets, it is a positive market signal that Kansas cash corn prices have
enough support to have avoided falling down to USDA loan rate levels.
Major Corn Market Considerations
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “next crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating” or
“limiting” factor affecting the response of the corn market to 2017 production risk. The corn market is less
anxious about having adequate corn supplies in the face of 2017 U.S. corn production risk when beginning
stocks are 2.370 bb rather than 1.000 bb. Second, it is anticipated that moderately low prices of U.S. corn will
help maintain strong usage for domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling production, as well as livestock feeding
through at least summer‐fall 2017.
Third, at least moderate continued strength is expected in U.S. corn exports due to moderately low U.S. corn
prices. Exports of U.S. corn are expected to continue at a “decent” pace” even though South American corn
production will continue to be a competitive factor in World trade through at least the end of 2017. Fourth,
the possibility exists of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that could
impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events have the
potential to provide “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets. However, the impact on the
direction of U.S. and World corn markets of such disruptive events are difficult to anticipate – depending on
which countries may be involved and their role in global corn export trade.
USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18
The USDA has projected 2017 U.S. corn plantings to be 90.886 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 3.118 ma from
2016). Harvested acres in 2017 are forecast at 83.496 ma (down 3.252 ma), with projected yields of 170.7
bu/ac (vs the record high of 174.6 in 2016). This leads to a USDA 2017 U.S. corn production forecast of 14.255
bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to be 16.675 bb – down 265 mb from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.350 bb – down 220 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.325 bb (16.20% S/U) – down from 2.370 bb (16.27% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.30 /bu (range of $2.90‐$3.70). This is down $0.05 /bu from the
midpoint estimate of $3.30 /bu from “current” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a 45% likelihood of
occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18
Four alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY
2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood of lower U.S. corn acreage, yields and production than
projected by the USDA in the July 12, 2017 WASDE report for “next crop” MY 2017/18.
A ‐ KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.815 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes:
89.886 ma planted, 82.577 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.815 bb production, 16.235 bb total
supplies, 14.245 bb total use, 1.990 bb ending stocks, 13.97% S/U, & $3.55 /bu U.S. corn average price for
“next crop” MY 2017/18;
B ‐ KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “165.0 bu/ac – 13.652 bb” Scenario (20% probability) assumes:
89.886 ma planted, 82.577 ma harvested, 165.0 bu/ac yield, 13.625 bb production, 16.045 bb total supplies,
14.120 bb total use, 1.925 bb ending stocks, 16.63% S/U, & $3.60 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
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C ‐ KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “160.0 bu/ac – 13.212 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
89.886 ma planted, 82.577 ma harvested, 160.0 bu/ac yield, 13.212 bb production, 15.632 bb total supplies,
13.920 bb total use, 1.712 bb ending stocks, 12.30% S/U, & $3.80 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
D ‐ KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #4) “150.0 bu/ac – 12.387 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
89.886 ma planted, 82.577 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.387 bb production, 14.807 bb total supplies,
13.400 bb total use, 1.407 bb ending stocks, 10.50% S/U, & $4.20 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
Note: even with significant reductions in 2017 U.S. corn production as represented in KSU Scenarios C and D
above, the presence of large beginning stocks of 2.370 bb in “next crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness” of
corn supplies, and lowers price prospects.
World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,036.9 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18, down
3.0% from the record high of 1,068.8 mmt in “current” MY 2016/17, but still up 7.0% from 968.8 mmt in MY
2015/16. Near record World corn total supplies of 1,264.4 mmt are projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18,
down marginally from the record high of 1,281.6 mmt in “current” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,178.4 mmt in
MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a near record 152.5 mmt are projected for “next crop” MY 2017/18, down 4.6% from
the record high of 159.7 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 27.5% from 119.6 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 200.8 mmt (18.9% S/U) in “next crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.5
mmt (21.6% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17, and from 212.8 mmt (22.0% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks are
isolated from the World market. “World Less China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 119.5 mmt (14.5%
S/U and 40.5% of World corn stocks) in “next crop” MY 2017/18, down from 126.2 mmt (15.4% S/U and 44.5%
of World stocks) in “current” MY 2016/17, but up from 102.0 mmt (13.6% S/U and 52.1% of World Stocks).
These figures show that World stocks of corn less China’s direct influence are projected to be down
approximately 23% (i.e., 14.5% S/U for the “World Less China” versus 18.9% S/U for the “World” overall in
“next crop” MY 2017/18).
These figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World overall is declining –
down from 52.1% in MY 2015/16 to 44.5% in “current” MY 2016/17, and down to 40.5% in “next crop” MY
2017/18. The deliberate actions taken by the Chinese government in recent years to reduce feedgrain
stockpiles is impacting the relative amount of corn stocks they hold in the World corn market.
…
August 1, 2023
Monthly Meat Demand Monitor (Prior Years)
jbina97@ksu.edu or gtonsor@ksu.edu.
2 Survey responses are weighted to … May 24). 5 Things to Know About Protein. Washington Post … View more information about the authors of this publication …
July 27, 2012
Macro and Global Economic Perspectives
Journal January 2012 Forecast Survey (Average)
WSJ
Forecast … millennials, it’s
more about the collaborative whole.” …
September 1, 2025
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