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March 29, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
or “current crop” MY 2015/16 – with 2015 U.S. sorghum production of
597 mb, and total supplies of 620 mb. Total use is projected to be 555 mb – including food, alcohol and
industrial use of 99 mb, seed use of 1 mb, exports of 325 mb, and feed and residual use of 130 mb. Ending
stocks are forecast at 65 mb (11.71% S/U) in “current crop” MY 2015/16 – up from 18 mb (4.0% S/U) in “old
crop” MY 2014/15, and 34 mb (9.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14. U.S. grain sorghum average cash prices are forecast
to be in the range of $3.15‐$3.45 /bu. ($3.30 midpoint) in “current crop” MY 2015/16 versus $4.03 in “old
crop” MY 2014/15, $4.28 in MY 2013/14, and $6.33 (record high) in MY 2012/13.
USDA Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2016/17: On December 14, 2015 the USDA released preliminary estimates
of its USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum projections on February 25‐26, 2016. In its December 14th forecasts
the USDA forecast U.S. grain sorghum supply‐demand and prices for the “next crop” 2016/17 marketing year
beginning September 1, 2016, but provided no further specifics in the February 25‐26 meeting.
The USDA projected 2016 U.S. grain sorghum plantings of 7.300 million acres (ma) – down 1.159 ma or 13.7%
from 2015. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of 6.300 ma would be down 1.551 ma vs 2015. With projected
yields of 65.1 bu/ac, 2016 U.S. grain sorghum production is forecast to be 410 mb – down sharply from 597 mb
in 2015, and comparable to 433 mb in 2013, and 392 mb in 2012. With forecast “next crop” MY 2016/17 total
use of 415 mb (down from 555 mb in “current crop” MY 2015/16), and projected ending stocks of 60 mb
(14.46% S/U), U.S. sorghum prices are projected by the USDA to be $3.40 /bu – down $0.05 from the USDA
corn price projection of $3.45 /bu for “next crop” MY 2016/17, but up from $3.30 /bu midpoint estimate for
U.S. grain sorghum “current” MY 2015/16.
Potential KSU 2016 U.S. Sorghum and Corn “Short Crop” Scenario – 13.000 Billion Bu U.S. Corn Crop: If
moderately significant corn production problems were to occur in the U.S. in the summer of 2016 resulting in a
13.000 bb corn (157.95 bu/ac yield on 82.300 ma harvested), then all else being equal, ending stocks of U.S.
corn for “next crop” MY 2016/17 could decline to 1.172 bb (8.5% S/U), with U.S. corn prices likely to increase
to $4.50‐$5.50 per bushel. Grain sorghum prices in the U.S. would likely in the $4.25 to $5.25 per bushel range
for “next crop” MY 2016/17.
World Coarse Grains Supply‐Demand: World total supplies of 1,504.7 million metric tons (mmt) are projected
for “current” MY 2015/16, down marginally from 1,509.65 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 1,444.5
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mmt in MY 2013/14. Projected World coarse grain ending stocks of 243.1 mmt (19.3% S/U) in “current crop”
MY 2015/16 are up marginally from 241.15 mmt (19.0% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and from 211.2 mmt
(17.1% S/U) in MY 2013/14.
…
Summary Book - All Counties
ratio
makes it difficult to cover other expense obligations.
The … 29
Swine4
Poultry and Eggs5
Other Livestock/Hedging6 318
Lvstk … 189,530
Hay and Forage16 14,817
Other Crop17 3,541
Government Payments18 …
August 1, 2011
Land Buying and Valuing
1250*(1.03) = $1287.50. On the other hand, it could be that Vm … instances of land prices (or other input prices)
being “too … exactly opposite of each other; a value of 1 indicates that …
October 1, 2015
USDA METSS Project
1)
where S is the nominal exchange rate, P is the U.S. price level and P* is the price level in the country of
interest, say Ghana. When the real exchange rate is appreciating, it means the U.S. price of the bundle
3
of goods in the basket is increasing relative to the Ghanaian price. Now, when the real exchange rates
appreciates, then the real value of the dollar has depreciated, suggesting a decline in its purchasing
power, relatively speaking.
To get to know how Q affects the poverty level, it is necessary to try to understand the factors that
influence changes in Q. The real exchange rate between the currencies of the two countries may
change when there is a change in the relative demand for U.S. goods as a result of preference shift,
leading to total expenditure on U.S. goods increasing. The shift may arise from two principal sources.
An increase in global private and public demand for U.S. goods is one source of such shifts. This shift is
exacerbated when the relative increase in demand for U.S. goods is much higher than the increase in
demand for Ghana goods. In an increasingly interconnected world, imports tend to account increasing
share of development countries’ consumption. Another source of the shift is an increase in U.S.
Government expenditure on U.S. goods, an event that increases during recessionary periods in attempts
to boost demand as an economic stimulant. When these events shift the demand for U.S. goods,
equilibrium can only be restored if the relative price of U.S. goods vis‐à‐vis Ghana goods rose. From
Equation (1), this implies a decline in Q, i.e., the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar has increased
relative to the Ghana cedi. The corollary is true: that the purchasing power of the Ghana cedi has
declined and its purchasing power has fallen.
4
Figure 1: Purchasing Power Parities for UK and Euro Zone per US Dollar (2009‐2014)
Another source of change in the real exchange rate is a change in relative output supply in the U.S.
significantly exceeding that of Ghana. Output supply changes are a function of resource productivity‐
enhancing technologies, such as those for labor and capital. Tractors and other farm production
equipment are some of the visible productivity‐enhancing technologies that allow U.S. agriculture, for
example, to dwarf that of Ghana. One outcome of increasing productivity is increasing incomes and the
country with the highest relative productivity increase will also have the highest relative income
increase. Because the higher incomes often lead to increased consumption of imports, relative prices in
the U.S. need to fall to restore equilibrium. This fall in relative prices lead to an increase in Q and a fall
in the U.S. dollar in real terms. Conversely, Ghana’s relative productivity disadvantage suggests the
need for appreciation of the Ghana cedi in order to restore equilibrium, leading to an increase in
Ghana’s prices relative to those in the U.S., i.e., the Ghana cedi rises in real terms. The foregoing works
well if the goods and services in the basket of goods being compared between the two countries are all
traded. However, a fair proportion of goods in the basket of developing countries tend to be non‐
traded.
Purchasing Power Parity
0.765
0.770
0.775
0.780
0.785
0.790
0.795
0.800
0.63
0.64
0.65
0.66
0.67
0.68
0.69
0.7
0.71
2009 …
November 20, 2014
Commodity Program Papers
crop-share or flex-rent or other arrangement where risk is … The condition that farmers meet conservation compliance requirements …
February 1, 2016
Leasing Papers
and Presentations
t of Agricultural Economics
Winter Meetings 2016
RENTS AND NET FARM INCOME
Returns to Farming
Source: KS Farm Management Association
Updated … Ignores
–Working capital (carry over from previous years)
– Debt obligations and other cash outlays
– Alternative rental arrangements (subsidization)
Non‐Irrigated Rental Rates
Region
2014 …
August 18, 2017
2,019 2,144 2,204 2,646
Other Latin America 861 856 590 … Industry Summer Business Meeting
Denver, CO
Assessing Beef …
November 15, 2015
Water Policy
producers and stakeholders in other areas. The knowledge of how … specific conservation plan to meet local goals. LEMAs are
proactive … minimizing the effects of other factors such as
3 …
February 27, 2018
2018 Farm Bill Meetings Presentations
they funded Vince Smith and others to promote a more “informed” … insurance and hedges (KC Meeting)
7. Ad hoc disaster aid provide … indemnity payments. All other farmers paid premiums, but …
March 2, 2018
2018 Farm Bill Meetings Presentations
they funded Vince Smith and others to promote a more “informed” … insurance and hedges (KC Meeting)
7. Ad hoc disaster aid provide … indemnity payments. All other farmers paid premiums, but …