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September 28, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Selling price differentials that often exist between grain sorghum and corn – impacting revenues from
each crop and potential differences in expected profitability. The issue of “relative profitability”
depends on the cropping system and land‐irrigation water availability situation being considered.
U.S. Grain Sorghum Production
Based on these assumptions about acreage and yields, this USDA forecast 2017 U.S. grain sorghum
production to be 371 million bushels (mb), down from 480 mb in 2016, the 18‐year high of 597 mb in 2015,
433 mb in 2014, and 392 mb in 2013 (Table 1 and Figure 4). This USDA projection of 2017 U.S. grain sorghum
production of 371 mb is estimated to have a 50% probability of occurring.
Figure 4. U.S. Grain Sorghum Total Supplies: MY 2000/01 through “New Crop” MY 2017/18 as of the
September 12, 2017 USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports
Two (2) alternative probability‐weighted KSU projections for “new crop” 2017 U.S. Grain Sorghum
Production include the following forecasts (Table 1a):
1) a 15% probability of 2017 U.S. planted acres of 5.468 ma, harvested acres of 4.850 ma, a grain sorghum
yield of 69.8 bu/ac & 2017 U.S. grain sorghum production of 339 mb.
2) a combined 35% probability of 2017 U.S. planted acres of 5.468 ma, harvested acres of 4.850 ma, a
grain sorghum yield of 75.0 bu/ac & 2017 U.S. grain sorghum production of 364 mb.
27 …
September 1, 2024
2024 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
and 2nd, 2024
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2008
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2010
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2011
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2011
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2014
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2015
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2017
:Q1
2017
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2018
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2020
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2023
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2025
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Real GDP Percent Change from Preceding Quarter
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Wall Street Journal (WSJ) July 2024 Forecast Survey (Average)
WSJForecast(July)
U.S. economic growth has remained resilient amid rising interest rates and higher inflation.
What is the relationship of the agricultural industry to the broader U.S. economy?
Ratio of U.S. Value of Agricultural Production to U.S. Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and USDA…all data are adjusted for inflation using the GDP implicit price deflator
Over time, the ratio of the value of U.S. agricultural production to U.S. GDP has fallen.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1929 …
June 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
… Crop” MY 2014/15
On June 11, 2014 the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its June 2014 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐
demand and price projections for both the “current” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” MY
2014/15. The “current” 2013/14 marketing year will end on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15
U.S. wheat marketing year will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.
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The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release its 2014 Acreage and June Quarterly
Stocks reports on Friday, June 30. The 2014 Acreage report will provide a survey‐based update of 2014
planted and harvested acreage of U.S. soybeans and other crops. The June Quarterly Stocks report will
provide information on the pace of U.S. soybean usage during the March‐April‐May 2014 quarter, and on the
levels of U.S. soybean stocks on June 1, 2014, and allow for better accuracy in projecting U.S. soybean
“current” MY 2013/14 ending stocks on August 31, 2014.
I‐C. Soybean Futures Trends Since the June 11th USDA Reports
The “current crop” JULY 2014 soybean futures market contract responded in a volatile and ultimately
positive manner to the information in the July 11th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Wednesday, June
11th – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) JULY 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $14.61 ¾ per bushel, and
traded as high as $14.66 ½ and as low as $14.44 ½ during the session, before settling at $14.45 ½ – down $0.17
for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e.,
12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then JULY 2014 soybean futures prices have
traded generally lower – from a high of $14.52 ¾ on June 12th, to a low of $13.93 ½ on Wednesday, June 18th
before closing at $14.09 on the same day. Prior to the June 11th report, JULY 2014 soybean futures had
trended sharply higher from lows in the range of $12.34 ‐ $12.34 ¾ on January 8, 24 and 30, 2014 to highs of
$15.21 on April 17th and $15.20 ½ on April 29th, and then to a “higher high” of $15.36 ¾ on May 22, before
trending lower through late May and early‐mid June.
Figure 1. July 2014 and November 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
June 14, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
… he USDA in essence projects that the recent “large supply – large use” situation that has
persisted since the last “supply‐demand” period in MY 2012/13 will continue (Figure 13). Concerns about
2018‐2019 wheat crop p … rts
are projected to decline by 19.2% from 1.176 billion bushels to 950 million bushels (mb) in “new crop” MY
2018/19. CommentaryKSU: This lack of growth in U.S. exports relative to foreign export competitors raises
questions about whether the U.S. should focus more on HRW wheat protein and quality characteristics to
differentiate it’s exportable wheat product. Also, a strengthening in the U.S. dollar exchange rate relative to
export competitors with weak currency exchange rates continues to be a negative factor limiting the
competitive affordability of U.S. wheat exports in World markets.
World wheat ending stocks are projected to be 266.2 mmt in “new crop” MY 2018/19 – the 2nd highest on
record following the high of 272.4 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (Figure 13, Table 8). World wheat ending
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stocks have been growing an average of 14.7 mmt per marketing year from the low of 177.9 mmt in MY
2012/13, out‐pacing the annual growth in total use of 10.6 mmt per marketing year – leading to growth in
ending stocks.
World wheat percent ending stocks‐to‐use (S/U) are forecast to be 35.45% in “new crop” MY 2018/19 ‐ the
2nd highest on record (Figures 14a‐b, Table 9). The record was 36.65% in “old crop” MY 2017/18. World
wheat % stocks‐to‐use consistently increased each year from 25.89% in the short crop MY 2012/13 to current
levels of 36.65% S/U in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and the USDA projection of 35.45% in “new crop” MY 2018/19.
CommentaryKSU: These results provide evidence that pace of growth in World wheat supplies has been
faster than growth in total use since MY 2012/13 – leading to the current World oversupply situation and lack
of sales opportunities and weaker prices for wheat of average protein and quality characteristics.
D. “World‐Less‐China” Wheat Supply‐Demand & the “China Supply Isolation” Factor
The broader “large crop‐over supply‐low price” situation in the World wheat market may be “obscuring”
some important underlying market issues – particularly in regards to the “masking” effect of Chinese wheat
stocks on available World wheat supplies and stocks.
Total supplies and % ending stocks‐to‐use of wheat in World markets is projected to grow to record levels
– with World wheat ending stocks‐to‐use of 35.45% in “new crop” MY 2018/19 (Figures 13 thru 14b, Table 8).
However, from a “World‐Less‐China” perspective, forecast ending stocks‐to‐use of 20.2% would be the lowest
level in 11 years (Table 9, Figures 15a‐b). “World‐Less‐China” wheat ending stocks‐to‐use would be down
sharply from 23.2% in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and from the range of 22.05% to 27.5% during the MY 2008/09
– MY 2017/18 period.
IF this “China supply isolation factor” eventually leads to noticeably tighter available global supplies of
purchasable wheat for buyers to gain access to in coming months, it could have a significant positive impact on
U.S. and World wheat market prices in “new crop” MY 2018/19. However, unless there is this change in the
broader, overriding focus of the World wheat market AWAY FROM aggregate global supplies over TO available
“World‐Less‐China” supplies the attention of the World wheat market may not change in this direction.
E. U.S. Wheat Supply/Demand for “New Crop” MY 2018/19 …
December 1, 2003
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