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April 1, 2010
to industry participants about market conditions, and
help … pork production increased about 20
percent from 2001 to … infor-
mation gathered from industry surveys and in-depth
interviews …
May 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
2012/13. Forecast total MY 2014/15 soybean production for major export
competitors Brazil (91.0 mmt – up 3.5 mmt) and Argentina (54.0 mmt) is projected to be 7.6% higher in the
coming year – with harvests available for use in the early months of 2015 to compete with the U.S. in World
grain export markets. However, these projections are still uncertain given the possibility of a strong El Nino
event beginning in mid‐2014 which could affect both U.S. and South American crop prospects in 2014/2015.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. May 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “New Crop” MY 2014/15
On May 9, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its monthly Crop
Production report. The May 2014 USDA Crop Production report provided the USDA’s initial survey‐based
projections of planted and harvested acreage, yields, and production for the 2014 U.S. soybean crop. Also on
May 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2014 World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐demand and price
projections for both the “current” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” 2014/15. The “current”
2013/14 marketing year will end on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year
will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends Since the May 9th USDA Reports
The “current crop” JULY 2014 soybean futures market contract responded in a volatile and ultimately
positive manner to the information in the May 9th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Friday, May 9th –
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) JULY 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $14.67 ¼ per bushel, and traded
as high as $14.91 ½ and as low as $14.53 during the session, before settling at $14.87 – up $0.17 ½ for the day
(Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon
eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then JULY 2014 soybean futures prices have traded generally
sideways within a trading range – from a high of $14.96 on May 12th, to a low of $14.60 ½ on May 13th before
closing at $14.65 on Monday, May 16th. Prior to the May 9th report, JULY 2014 soybean futures had trend
sharply higher from lows in the range of $12.34 ‐ $12.34 ¾ on January 8, 24 and 30, 2014 to highs of $15.21 on
April 17th and $15.20 ½ on April 29th prior to moving generally lower to the May 19th close of $14.85 ¼.
Figure 1. July 2014 and November 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 3
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
December 9th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On December 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2014/15, 2015/16, and “new crop” 2016/17 marketing years (MY) for
wheat. “Current Crop” MY 2016/17 for U.S. wheat began on 6/1/2016 and will last through 5/31/2017. The
USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) also released its December Crop Production report on
the same day. However, the December NASS Crop Production report was not survey‐based, but instead
carr …
May 2, 2022
Recent Videos, Risk and Profit Online Mini-Conference Presentations
dangerous areas to be surveyed are 132 023 square kilometers … acres)
General statistic regarding demining on the territory of Ukraine by the State Emergency Service since the war beginning as on April 26, 2022:
Source: The State Emergency Service of Ukraine
Surveyed areas – 78.25 square kilometers (19335 acres …
April 17, 2024
Hog Pricing
solely of the authors.
About the Principal Investigators … intended to house information about marketing contract arrangements … However, little is known about how frequently market participants …
Breakout Sessions
And where might they go???
Sources of Land Price Data
• USDA surveys – summary of producer
opinions of the value
• … Can use calculations like P/E ratios to see if
prices are out of line relative to earnings
USDA Prices, Sales Prices, and
Calculated Prices
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Average Sales Price
Average USDA Price
Calculated Price
Price calculated
with 2013 rate,
and 2014
projected
income level
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Land Price Sales Data/Earnings Ratio Survey of Appraisers
• Base their opinions of value on sales in the
area
• …
August 23, 2013
Forward‐22 willing to pay
~25,000 respondents
10 Years Forward
Demand Expert Survey
‐159 experts
Steak & Gr … Steak & Ground Beef
Consumer Survey
‐975 respondents975 respondents
Steak & Ground Beef
Ranked Priorities
1 … Several examples of “infighting” within the industry
More information available at:
This presentation is available in PDF format at:
www.agmanager.info
p
http://www.agmanager.info/about/contributors/individual/tonsor.asp
Glynn …
May 1, 2003
Assessing Business Opportunities
fail are neither written about nor
discussed in conferences … with irrational exuberance about outcomes.1
The purpose … process. If we can think about outcomes as
occurring in …
May 19, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
May 12,
2015, U.S. wheat market prices have traded higher due to concerns about U.S. Hard Red Winter whe … igh, with percent ending stocks‐
to‐use at their highest level since MY 2011/12.
There are emerging concerns about potential wheat export su … May 2015 World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐demand and price
projections for the 2013/14, “current” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years. The
“current” 2014/15 marketing year for U.S. wheat will end on May 31, 2015, while the “new crop” 2015/16 U.S.
wheat marketing year will begin on June 1, 2015 and will last through May 31, 2016.
In the May 12th WASDE report the USDA released projections for the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year
for corn, grain sorghum, wheat, soybeans and other major crops. Projections of 2015 crop size for wheat are
based on actual farmer surveys and field trials conducted from April 24th to May 7th by the USDA National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
I‐B. CME Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures & U.S. Dollar Index Trends
Since market highs of $7.03 ¾ per bushel on December 18, 2014, the CME JULY 2015 Kansas hard red
winter wheat futures contract trended sharply lower – falling to a low of $5.37 on February 2, 2015. Then
after rising to a high of $5.86 on February 17, 2015, JULY 2015 futures fell again to $5.22 ¾ on March 6th.
Another round of an upward price trend to above $5.90 in early April was followed by a decline to below $$.90
in early May, and then a rise to $5.49 ½ on May 15, 2015.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) JULY 2015 Kansas HRW Wheat futures prices responded to the
release of the May 12th USDA reports by trading sideways‐to‐lower for the day. JULY 2015 HRW wheat
efutures prices opened at $5.09 on Tuesday, May 12th. The USDA reports were released at midday (i.e., 11
a.m., central time). That day prices traded as low as $5.05 ¼ and as high as $5.18 ¾ per bushel during the
session before closing $0.01 lower for the day at $5.07 ¾ /bu (Figure 1).
Figure 1. MAY 2015 & JULY 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
October 1, 2024
2024 Kansas Crop Insurance Presentations
All Fact Sheets can be found by clicking About Crop Insurance, then choosing Fact Sheets
… More Information
Quick ‘about’ presentation at the top of the site
… Aerial photography
NRCS Soils Survey (if applicable)
WAH Part 2, Section 1, Para 12 ‐ …