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September 1, 2023
2023 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
27th, 2023
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Real GDP Percent Change from Preceding Quarter
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Wall Street Journal (WSJ) July 2024 Forecast Survey (Average)
WSJForecast(July)
U.S. economic growth has remained resilient amid rising interest rates and higher inflation.
When will the U.S. officially enter a recession?
3
A leading indicator of the U.S. entering a recession tends to be an inverted yield curve.
Yield
(%)
Maturity
Normal Yield Curve
3 mo …
May 1, 2003
Assessing Business Opportunities
Agricultural Economics
Agricultural Marketing Resource Center
Kansas … 4
Sales and Marketing.............................................................................................................5 … project context – location, markets, etc. Because the results …
May 1, 2003
Guidelines
Agricultural Economics
Agricultural Marketing Resource Center
Kansas … 4
Sales and Marketing.............................................................................................................5 … project context – location, markets, etc. Because the results …
July 27, 2020
Monthly Meat Demand Monitor (Prior Years)
MDM is a monthly online
survey with a sample of over 2,000 … report, insights from the MDM surveys conducted between February … report.i Data from over 10,000 survey respondents are used
to …
November 8, 2018
4
1. Negotiated in the Spot Market (e.g. hog priced “directly” … “directly”)
2. Swine/Pork Market Formula (e.g. hog priced … cutout values)
3. Other Market Formula (e.g. hog priced …
September 1, 2022
2022 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
Cost of doing business in a competitive market• With 3rd party, loan is often guaranteed by the supplier• … Implement dealer financing with USDA farm survey data (Ifft, Kuethe and Patrick 2017)• … than any single bank in northeast US
New findings: market share
• Nontraditional real estate lenders hold over 1/3 of Farmer Mac’s Farm and Ranch portfolio, following substantial growth since 2013 (Lyons and Takach 2022)• …
October 3, 2016
2016 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
reau of Economic Analysis and Wall Street Journal (WSJ) September 2016 Forecast Survey (Average)
WSJForecast(Sept)
The economic recovery continues to struggle to find its footing.
• … Hawks: The economy continues to improve and extraordinary accommodative policies may be promoting excessive risk taking behavior• The market was ready for a Fed Funds rate increase back in June 2015…now what?
Today’s exceptional accommodative monetary policy has created quite the dialogue within the Fed.
• …
April 7, 2016
Land Buying and Valuing
land sold through typical market channels and does not include … sale from being considered a market-based transaction.
Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics (Publication: AM‐MRT‐2016.2) … are based upon an annual survey of
agricultural producers …
September 24, 2010
Energy
U.S. Census Bureau Dry + Wet Corn Mill Use
Marketing Year Comparisons with USDA … corn use are presented on a marketing year basis
(i.e., September … example, the current 2010-11 marketing year (i.e.,
MY 2010-11 …
2020 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
l” local branch‐loan officer model
Other important categories
2 stories about nontraditional finance
Story 1: Evolving agricultural credit markets• Almost everyone that *sells something* to farmers sells credit too
• … Not “easy money”• Competitive market facing same risks as production agriculture• …