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February 24, 2025
Prices and Price Forecasts
the
University of Michigan monthly survey of inflation expectations … “https://www.eia.gov/
dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_m.htm
"Surveys of Consumers, University …
August 1, 2025
Breakout Sessions
and 22nd, 2025
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Real GDP Percent Change from Preceding Quarter
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Wall Street Journal (WSJ) April 2025 Forecast Survey (Average)
WSJForecast(Apr)
U.S. economic growth shot up to 3% in 2025 Q2…
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
…but the growth was driven by a sharp reduction in imports.
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10.0%
Q2 …
August 23, 2021
Monthly Meat Demand Monitor (Prior Years)
MDM is a monthly online
survey with a sample of over 2,000 … report, insights from the MDM surveys conducted between January … report. Data from over 12,000 survey respondents are used
to …
December 22, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
outh American production prospects and U.S. soybean exports through early spring.
The next major survey based USDA report address … ld soybean market prices.
With a record large fall harvest of soybeans in the United States in 2014, cash soybean prices had fell
below $9.00 per bushel in late November, but have since moved higher. Central Kansas Terminal cash bids
were in the range of $9.70 ½ ‐ $9.86 ½ on Friday, December 19th. “Current crop” January 2015 soybean
futures closed at $10.30 ½ per bushel that day, with “next year’s crop” November 2015 soybean futures
closing at $10.17 ½.
Given that the USDA projections for “current crop” MY 2014/15 indicate that a) Chinese soybean imports
will continue to be strong, and b) South American soybean production to be harvested in early‐mid 2015 will
again be record high, there is no indication yet that any change is expected in these projected trends in
production, exports or imports in the broader World soybean market. The possibility of weather‐related
production problems in South America during the spring of 2015, or in the United States during the summer‐
fall of 2015 could impact these trends. However, until such potential production problems actually occur the
World soybean market will likely assume that these “predominant trends” will continue into the foreseeable
future.
I‐B. December 2014 and Upcoming January 2015 USDA Reports
On December 10, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its December
2014 Crop Production report containing state and national level U.S. soybean production estimates for 2014.
The December 10th Crop Production report focused on U.S. cotton and orange production, with no substantive
changes made from the November 10th Crop Production report. The next major survey based USDA report
addressing U.S. crop production for soybeans, corn, other feedgrains, wheat, and other major crops will be the
USDA Annual Crop Production Summary report to be released on Monday, January 12, 2015. On that same
day USDA NASS will also release the January 2015 Crop Production, December Grain Stocks, and U.S. Winter
Wheat Seedings reports.
Page | 4
Also on December 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2014
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean
supply‐demand and price projections for the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year. The “current crop”
2014/15 U.S. soybean marketing year began September 1, 2014 and will last through August 31, 2015. January
10th will also be the day that the USDA WAOB releases the next WASDE report.
I‐C. Soybean Futures Trends Since the July 11th USDA Reports
“Current crop” JANUARY 2015 soybean futures contract prices responded in a negative manner to the
information in the December 10th USDA reports (Figure 1). On the day of the report CME JANUARY 2015
futures prices opened at $10.47 ¾ /bu, and traded as high as $10.60 ¼ and as low as $10.27 ¾ during the
session, before settling at $10.32 – down $0.17 ¼ for the day. Since then JANUARY 2015 soybean futures
prices have traded within the range from a high of $10.55 on December 15th, to a low of $10.15 on December
17th before closing at $10.30 ½ on December 19th.
Figure 1. JAN 2015 and NOV 2015 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
June 24, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
… one else who fills out these weekly surveys of crop progress take the
approach of “rebasing” their expectations of crop progress relative to the status of the crop and their
Page | 5
evolving planting intentions or crop development realities at the beginning of the weekly reporting
period. Their assessments of crop progress are based on their updated expectations instead of either
their original intentions of planted acres OR regular historical rates of crop development.
This tendency has been more of a critical issue in year 2019 because of the excessive cropland
moisture situation that has occurred in the U.S. Corn Belt, and the delays in corn plantings it has
caused. This is particularly relevant due to the likelihood of a much higher than normal amount of
prevented planting acreage in 2019.
Consequently, when farmers indicate they may be 100% completed in their plantings this year, it
is likely to refer to their completion of all that they actually CAN plant – excluding those saturated
and/or flooded acres that cannot be planted at least to corn in 2019 and that they have given up on
for corn acreage this year. Since farmers expectations regarding what their planted acres can
reasonably BE planted in a saturated year such as 2019, then their BASE expectations are “dynamic”.
After all this wrangling over definitions, in so many words, the 92% planted acreage estimate
reported for June 16th by the USDA NASS Crop Progress report is likely overstated because U.S.
farmers are implicitly accounting for either prevented plantings or switching to other crops as they fill
out the reports of weekly corn planting completion for USDA.
4 …
June 1, 2009
KFMA Newsletters
by the Kansas
Geological Survey. The brown or red areas have …
October 20, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
… The 10 state
objective yield survey was conducted on selected … ptember 30th Small Grains Summary report. The farmer operator survey was conducted by various means –
mail, internet, telephone, and grower reported data – during the first two weeks in September 2016.
CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat DEC 2016 & JULY 2017 Futures
Following a low of $4.83 ½ per bushel on May 11, 2016, DECEMBER 2016 CME Kansas hard red
winter wheat futures prices traded up to a high of $5.35 ½ on June 8th. From that June 8th high, prices
fell $1.15 ½ per bushel to a low of $4.24 on July 5th. DECEMBER 2016 CME KS HRW Wheat futures
then traded in a sideways range during the July 6th through August 25th period – ranging from a high
of $4.58 (on 7/13/2016) to a low of $4.25 ¾ (on 7/22/2016) – before breaking out of this sideways
trading range on August 26th and falling first to a low of $3.95 per bushel on August 31st. Since then,
DEC 2016 CME KS HRW Wheat futures first trended higher to close at $4.25 ¾ on September 23rd,
then down to a low of $3.97 on October 12th, before trending back higher to $4.27 ½ per bushel on
Wednesday, October 19th before closing at $4.25 ¼ that same day (Figure 1).
JULY 2017 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures prices traded down to a low of $5.16 ½ per
bushel on May 11, 2016, and then trended higher up to $5.69 ¾ on June 8th. From that June 8th high,
prices fell $1.08 per bushel to a low of $4.61 ¾ on July 5th. Then JULY 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat
futures traded in a sideways range during the July 6th to the August 25th period – from a high of $4.94
(on 7/13/2016) to a low of $4.64 (on 7/22/2016) – before breaking out of this range on August 26th
falling to a low of $4.32 on August 31st. Since then, JULY 2016 CME KS HRW Wheat futures first
trended higher to close at $4.61 ¼ on September 23rd, then down to a low of $4.35 on October 12th,
Page | 4
before trending back higher to $4.66 per bushel on Wednesday, October 19th before closing at $4.64
¾ that same day (Figure 1).
Figure 1. DECEMBER 2016 & JULY 2017 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts …
February 23, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Prospective Plantings report and survey-based forecasts for winter …
July 26, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
soybean crop would be a near record
4.310 billion bushels (bb), down 82 million bushels (mb) from the record high of 4.392 billion bushels (bb) in
year 2017, but up from 4.296 bb in year 2016. The August 10th USDA Crop Production and World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports will provide the first in‐the‐field samples and farmer survey
results for the 2018 U.S. soybean crop. There are of course opportunities for surprises to occur in the August
10th reports, which represent the USDA’s estimate of 2018 U.S. soybean crop production prospects near
August 1st.
What is “Unknown” – The Strength of U.S. Soybean Exports Through Fall 2018: The imposition by the
Chinese government of a 25% tariff on U.S. soybean imports into their country has had a decidedly negative
impact on U.S. soybean prices over the past few weeks. However, in terms of actual shipments of U.S.
soybeans at the current time, U.S. soybean exports are still running “on pace” to meet USDA projections for
the “old crop” 2017/18 marketing year ending August 31st.
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reports that for the week ending July 19th the U.S. shipped
30.3 mb of soybeans for export, down marginally from the pace of 31.2 mb per week to meet the USDA’s
forecast of 2.085 bb in U.S. soybean exports for the “old crop” 2017/18 marketing year ending August 31st
(Figure 8). Total shipments of 1.898 bb through July 19th were 91.0% of the USDA projection of 2.085 bb in
“old crop” MY 2017/18, with 88.5% of the marketing year complete (i.e., 46/52 weeks).
In terms of forward purchases, the USDA reports that an additional 240 mb of wheat have been “bought
ahead” for export as of July 19th. Adding the shipments‐to‐date of 1.898 bb and forward purchases of 0.240 bb
together, total shipments and purchases amount to 2.138 bb, up 2.5% and 53 mb higher than the USDA’s
projection of 2.085 bb for “old crop” MY 2017/18.
Page | 2
As of July 19th a total of 361.2 mb of U.S. soybeans had also been purchased for shipment in the “new
crop” 2018/19 marketing year, beginning on September 1, 2018. This amount of pre‐sales equals 17.7% of the
USDA’s projection of 2.040 bb in U.S. soybean exports in “new crop” MY 2018/19. However, it should be
noted that the USDA lowered its projection of “new crop” MY 2018/19 U.S. soybean exports by 250 mb down
to the 2.040 bb projection in the July 12, 2018 WASDE report in response to U.S.‐Chinese trade actions.
Taken together, prospects for U.S. soybean exports in “new crop” MY 2018/19 have been reduced at this
point‐in‐time – down 10.9% from the June to the July WASDE report by the USDA’s estimates. However, the
current pace of U.S. soybean exports in “old crop” MY 2017/18 have not declined appreciably since the
announcement of the Chinese soybean import tariff.
While U.S. soybean exports in “old crop” MY 2017/18 to China are down 266 mb (down 20.8%) from a year
ago through July 19th, U.S. exports to all other countries in “old crop” MY 2017/18 are up 176.4 mb or 24.8%
over a year earlier. Among the countries that have tangibly increased U.S. soybean imports from a year ago
are some in the European Union (i.e., Germany, the Netherlands, and Portugal), Turkey, Taiwan, Indonesia,
Iran, Israel, Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam, Egypt, Tunisia, Columbia, Mexico, Cuba, Peru, and Venezuela.
2. Other Factors to Consider in Soybean Market Outlook
Prior to the escalation of the U.S.‐China trade dispute, U.S. soybean market prospects where described as
“neutral‐to‐cautiously optimistic” for the “new crop” 2018/19 marketing year. Now with the uncertainty and
potential negative impacts of 25% soybean import tariffs by China against U.S. soybeans, the “narrative
consensus opinion” of the market has turned pessimistic price‐wise, which has been reflected in “new crop”
NOVEMBER 2018 Soybean futures. NOV 2018 Soybean futures declined from a high of $10.43 ¾ on May 30th
down to a low of $8.46 per bushel on July 17th (Figure 1). Since then, NOV 2018 Soybean futures have
increased moderately to a close of $8.76 on Thursday, July 26th.
There are still other unsettled questions about key U.S. soybean supply‐demand factors that need to be
answered between now and fall harvest 2018. These include: 1) remaining 2018 U.S. soybean production risk
in Summer 2018; 2) expectations of continued strength in U.S. soybean domestic crush and to some degree
exports in coming months; and 3) the possibility of tighter U.S. soybean supplies in terms of reduced ending
stocks and percent ending stocks‐to‐use if a short crop develops in the U.S. this summer.
Looking forward, it is possible that Brazilian soybean producers may respond to the current high prices
they are receiving from Chinese purchases of their 2018 crop by sharply increasing their acreage and
production prospects for 2019. High soybean prices in Brazil have been brought on by the directed focus of
China upon purchasing South American soybeans at the exclusion of the U.S. during the current trade dispute.
It is possible if not likely that farmers in Brazil and Argentina will sharply increase 2019 soybean planted acres,
which with decent yields would result in an even larger 2019 soybean crop than would otherwise be expected
– and more pressure on World soybean market prices.
Planting of the South American soybean crop begins in late fall 2018 here in the United States. This means
that U.S. corn and soybean producers will have some amount of information on 2019 South American crop and
market prospects when they make crop planting decisions in late winter – early spring 2019 here in the United
States. All else being equal, anticipated 2019 South American acreage trends may lead U.S. farmers to lower
their 2019 U.S. soybean plantings and to raise their 2019 U.S. corn plantings.
Page | 3
3. Kansas Cash Soybean Prices & Basis Bids
Cash soybean price bids on Wednesday, July 25th in Central at major terminal elevator locations were in
the range of $7.70 ¾ to $8.01 ¾ per bushel ($0.90 to $0.59 under AUGUST 2018). At Topeka and Atchison in
Northeast Kansas, cash prices ranged from $8.20 ¾ to $8.25 ¾ per bushel ($0.40 to $0.35 under AUGUST
2018). These Central and Northeast Kansas prices on July 25th are down substantially from $9.88 ‐ $9.93
($0.35 to $0.30 under JULY) on May 30th. Cash soybean bids at Kansas soybean processing plants in Emporia
and Wichita on July 25th ranged from $8.40 ¾ to $8.45 ¾ per bushel ($0.15 to $0.20 under AUGUST 2018) –
down substantially from May 30th when prices ranged from $9.86 ($0.37 under JULY) to $9.93 ($0.30 under).
In Western Kansas cash soybean bids at major grain elevators on July 25th ranged from $7.36 to $7.76 per
bushels ($1.30 to $$0.90 under AUGUST 2018), down substantially again from $8.88 ($1.35 under JULY 2018
futures) to $9.23 ($1.00 under) on May 30th.
4. South American Export Competition in “Old Crop” MY 2017/18
Soybean market signals from South American export competitors Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay have
improved in recent months as a result of the U.S.‐China trade dispute (Figure 14). Serious drought had caused
Argentina soybean production to decline by 32.7% from a USDA estimate of 55.0 million metric tons (mmt) in
2017 down to 37.0 mmt in 2018, and cut projected Argentine soybean exports by 55.9% to 3.1 mmt in the “old
crop” 2017/18 marketing year (MY) ending August 31st (Tables 2 & 3). Argentina soybean meal exports are
projected to be 11.7% lower (27.65 mmt) in MY 2017/18, down from 31.3 mmt in MY 2016/17.
However, Brazilian soybean production is projected to be higher – offsetting Argentina’s declines to a
degree. Brazil is projected by the USDA to produce a record high 119.5 mmt of soybeans in year 2018, up 4.3%
from the previous record of 114.5 mmt in year 2017. Brazilian soybean exports are forecast to be 74.65 mmt
in MY 2017/18 (ending August 31st), up 18.2% from 63.1 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Tables 2 & 3). Brazil soybean
meal exports are projected to be 14.1% higher (15.7 mmt) in MY 2017/18, up from 13.8 mmt in MY 2016/17.
Paraguay soybean production is projected to be down marginally – providing a neutral influence to the
market. Paraguay is projected by the USDA to produce 10.0 mmt of soybeans in year 2018 – down marginally
from 10.2 mmt in year 2017. Paraguay soybean exports are forecast to be 6.25 mmt in MY 2017/18 (ending
August 31st), up 2.0% from 6.13 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Tables 2 & 3).
These three South American countries are the main competition in global soybean export markets for the
United States. Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay are forecast to comprise 55.2% (84.0 mmt) of forecast World
soybean exports (152.2 mmt) in the “old crop” 2017/18 marketing year (MY). The U.S. is projected to make up
37.3% (56.7 mmt) of World soybean exports for MY 2017/18, with other countries making up the remaining
7.55% (11.5 mmt) (Table 3).
The trade dispute between the U.S. and China has “pushed” Chinese soybean export purchases toward
Brazil and away from the U.S. at least temporarily until the matter is either settled OR exportable South
American supplies are eventually no longer available in fall 2018. There has been both negative and positive
news coming from these negotiations to date, with final agreements or lack there‐of still to come.
Page | 4
5. U.S. Soybean Supply‐Demand Projections for “Old Crop” MY 2017/18
In the July 12th USDA WASDE report the USDA projected “old crop” MY 2017/18 soybean Total Supplies to
be up marginally from earlier WASDE reports at 4.715 billion bushels (bb) (Table 1 and Figure 6).
Continued strength in U.S. soybean crush resulting from demand for soybean meal for domestic and
foreign livestock feeding has supported domestic U.S. soybean demand (Table 1, Figures 7 & 9ab). Projected
U.S. soybean crush of 2.030 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18 is a record high – up 15 mb from June and up 129 mb
from MY 2016/17. Strong crush of U.S. soybeans is related directly to strong demand for U.S. soybean meal.
Projected exports of U.S. soybean meal of a record high 13.500 million short tons (mst) in “old crop” MY
2017/18 ending on September 30th are up from 11.580 mst last year – up from the previous record of 13.107
mmt in MY 2014/15. Strong U.S. soybean meal exports in “old crop” MY 2017/18 are a direct result of
shortfalls in Argentina soybean production and soybean meal exports due to drought conditions in early 2018,
and possibly from the U.S.‐China trade dispute and the 25% Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybean imports.
The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report monthly projections of U.S.
soybeans exports for “old crop” MY 2017/18 have declined by nearly 80 mb since January 2018 – down to a
projection of 2.085 bb (while up 20 mb from June) (Table 1, Figures 7 & 9ab). This forecast of 2.085 bb for the
current marketing year ending on August 31st is still the 2nd highest on record, but down from the record high
of 2.174 bb in U.S. soybean exports a year earlier.
Seed usage of U.S. soybeans is projected to be 104 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, with Residual use at 32
mb – both down marginally from MY 2016/17.
Total Use of U.S. soybeans was projected to be a record high of 4.251 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18 – up
from the past record of 4.214 bb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1, Figures 7 & 9ab).
As a result of these supply and use projections for “old crop” MY 2017/18, ending stocks are projected to
be the 2nd highest on record at 465 mb (down 40 mb from June) with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 10.94% –
both measures being up from 302 mb (7.17% S/U) in MY 2016/17 (Table 1, Figures 9ab & 10‐11). The record
high occurred in MY 2006/07, with 574 mb ending stocks and 18.62% ending stocks‐to‐use.
United States’ soybean prices for “old crop” MY 2017/18 are projected to average $9.35 /bu – down from
$9.47 in MY 2016/17, and comparable to $8.95 /bu in MY 2015/16 (Table 1, Figures 10‐11).
6. U.S. Soybean Supply‐Demand Projections for “New Crop” MY 2018/19
The USDA provided a forecast of U.S. soybean supply, demand, and prices for “new crop” MY 2018/19 In
the July 12th USDA WASDE report. Based on 2018 U.S. soybean production projections 88.557 million acres
(ma) planted, 88.862 ma harvested, and 2018 U.S. soybean average yields of 48.5 bu/ac., the USDA forecast
2018 U.S. soybean production to be 4.310 bb. This 2018 forecast of 4.310 bb would be down from the record
high of 4.392 bb in 2017, and the 2nd highest amount of 4.296 bb in 2016 (Tables 1a‐b, Figures 4‐5‐6).
Total Supplies of U.S. soybeans in “new crop” MY 2018/19 are forecast to be a record high 4.800 bb, based
on 465 mb in beginning stocks, 4.310 bb in production, and 25 mb in imports. This amount is up from the
previous record highs of 4.715 bb and 4.515 bb in U.S. soybean Total Supplies in “old crop” MY 2017/18 and
MY 2016/17, respectively (Tables 1a‐b, Figure 6).
Page | 5
Soybean crush in “new crop” MY 2018/19 is forecast to be a new record high of 2.045 bb (up 45 mb from
June) – to be driven by expected ongoing domestic usage for livestock feed and sharply higher U.S. soybean
meal exports (Table 1a‐b, Figures 7 & 9ab). This would be up 15 mb in U.S. soybean crush from the previous
record of 2.030 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18.
Exports of U.S. soybeans in “new crop” MY 2018/19 are forecast to decline 45 mb to 2.040 bb – down 250
mb from the June WASDE as a result of the expected impact of U.S.‐China trade tensions (Figures 7‐9). A total
of 361.2 mb of U.S. soybeans have been purchased for shipment in the “new crop” 2018/19 marketing year,
beginning on September 1, 2018. This amount of pre‐sales equals 17.7% of the USDA’s projection of 2.040 bb
in U.S. soybean exports in “new crop” MY 2018/19.
Seed usage of U.S. soybeans is projected to be 103 million bushels (mb) in “new crop” MY 2018/19, with
Residual use forecast at 32 mb – both essentially equal to “old crop” MY 2017/18 (Table 1a‐b, Figures 9ab).
Total Use is projected to be a near‐record high of 4.220 bb – down 205 mb from June, and down from the
previous record high of 4.251 bb last year (Table 1a‐b, Figure 9b).
As a result of these supply and use projections for “new crop” MY 2018/19, ending stocks are projected to
be 580 mb (up 195 mb from June) with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 13.74% – both up from 465 mb
(10.94% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (Tables 1a‐b, Figures 9ab & 10‐11). United States’ soybean prices for
“new crop” MY 2018/19 are projected in the range of $8.00‐$10.50 (midpoint = $9.25 /bu) – all being down
$0.75 /bu from the June WASDE report, and comparable to the midpoint projection of $9.35 /bu in “old crop”
MY 2017/18. This scenario is given a 50% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D.
O’Brien.
7. Alternative KSU Soybean Forecast Scenarios for “New Crop” MY 2018/19
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios to the USDA’s forecast for U.S. soybean supply‐demand and prices are
presented for “new crop” MY 2018/19 (Table 1b, Figure 10). These projections show how varying 2018 U.S.
soybean production and use scenarios could affect U.S. soybean supply‐demand and price outcomes in “new
crop” MY 2018/19. Probability‐weights are added to reflect judgements about how likely each scenario is to
occur in “new crop” MY 2018/19, i.e., during the September 1, 2018 through August 31, 2019 time period.
#1 ‐ KSU “Lower 2018 U.S. Soybean Exports” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (20% probability):
Assumptions: 88.557 ma planted, 88.862 ma harvested, 48.5 bu/ac yield, 4.310 bb production, 4.800 bb
total supplies, 2.045 bb domestic crush, 1.890 bb exports (down 150 mb from USDA’s forecast), 4.070 bb
total use, 730 mb ending stocks, 17.94% S/U, & $7.75 /bu U.S. soybean average price;
#2 ‐ KSU “Large 2018 U.S. Soybean Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (15% probability):
Assumptions: 88.557 ma planted, 88.862 ma harvested, 51.0 bu/ac yield (near the record high in year
2016 of 52.0 bu/ac), 4.532 bb production, 5.022 bb total supplies, 2.045 bb domestic crush, 2.150 bb
exports (up 110 mb from USDA), 4.330 bb total use, 692 mb ending stocks, 15.98% S/U, & $8.25 /bu U.S.
soybean average price;
#3 ‐ KSU “Small 2018 U.S. Soybean Production” Scenario for “new crop” MY 2018/19: (15% probability):
Assumptions are: 88.557 ma planted, 88.862 ma harvested, 46.0 bu/ac yield (closer to recent lows of 40‐
44 bu /ac in years 2011‐2013), 4.088 bb production, 4.578 bb total supplies, 1.950 bb domestic crush,
2.000 bb exports, 4.110 bb total use, 468 mb ending stocks, 11.38% S/U, & $9.50 /bu U.S. soybean price;
Page | 6
8. World Soybean Supply‐Demand Prospects
World soybean production of a record high 359.5 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY
2018/19, up 6.8% from 336.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and up 3.3% from the current record high of
348.1 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Figure 13, Table 2). The “new crop” 2018/19 marketing year begins September 1,
2018 and continues through August 31, 2019. World soybean total supplies of 455.5 mmt in “new crop” MY
2018/19 are forecast to be up 5.1% from 433.4 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and up 6.3% from 428.6 mmt in
MY 2016/17.
World soybean exports of a 157.3 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2018/19, up 3.0% from 152.2
mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and up 6.8% from 147.35 mmt in MY 2016/17 (Table 3). China would be the
key World soybean importer in the coming marketing year, and shows little sign of abating yet in their annual
soybean usage or import increases (Table 4, Figure 15).
Projected World soybean ending stocks of a record high 98.3 mmt (27.7% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2018/19
are up 2.3% from 96.0 mmt (28.3% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, up from the previous record high 96.7 mmt
(29.7% S/U) in MY 2016/17, and 78.0 mmt (25.8% S/U) in MY 2015/16 (Figures 13 & 16, Tables 8‐9).
Projected Foreign (Non‐U.S.) soybean ending stocks of 82.5 mmt (22.5% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2018/19,
are down 1.1% from 83.4 mmt (22.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and is down from 88.5 mmt (24.5% S/U)
in MY 2016/17 (Tables 8‐9).
…
December 17, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
dly diminishing foreign 2015
production prospects, and/or have weather‐induced 2015 corn production problems, then by March‐April
2015 World corn market price prospects for “next crop” MY 2015/16 could be positively affected – which could
impact U.S. farmers’ 2015 spring planting choices (i.e., more U.S. corn acres, and less soybean acres).
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I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. December 2014 USDA Reports & “Current crop” MY 2014/15
Projections
On December 10, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its December
2014 Crop Production report containing state and national level U.S. corn production estimates for 2014. The
December Crop Production report focused on U.S. cotton and orange production, with no substantive changes
made from the November 10th Crop Production report – which was based on farmer surveys and objective
field plot …