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June 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
ating usage, higher ending stocks, and lower prices versus a year earlier. The June 30th
USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports are likely to cause changes in U.S. corn supply‐demand estimates
in the upcoming July 11th WASDE report. Even then, the first survey‐based projection of 2014 …
July 15, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
g stocks and ending stocks‐to‐use were also raised to 1.801 bb (up 75 mb)
and 13.5% (up from 12.9%), respectively. The USDA forecast that “new crop” MY 2014/15 average prices will
be $3.65‐$4.35 with a midpoint of $4.00 – down $0.20 /bu from June. As useful at these July report numbers
are, it is important to remember that the first actual survey‐based projection of 2014 …
June 20, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
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I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. June 10th WASDE & March 31st Prospective Plantings & Stocks Reports
On June 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its June 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2014/15, “current” 2015/16, and “new crop” 2016/17 marketing years. The
“current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016, with “new
crop” MY 2016/17 beginning 9/1/2016 and lasting through 8/31/2017.
Prior to the April 12th, May 10th, and June 10th USDA WASDE reports, on March 31st the USDA National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its 2016 Prospective Plantings and March 1st Quarterly Grain
Stocks reports. Information from the 2016 Prospective Plantings report has been used by the USDA as the
base estimate for the USDA’s 2016 U.S. corn planted acreage forecast in the June 10th WASDE report.
However, more current farmer survey‐based information on 201 …
June 6, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
her coarse grains. The USDA used U.S. 2014 planted acreages from the March 31st USDA Prospective
Plantings report along with in‐house, non‐survey based projections of 2014 … the U.S. central (Kansas) and southern (Oklahoma and Texas) plains, alleviating drought conditions.
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I. U.S. Grain Sorghum Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. May 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “New Crop” MY 2014/15
On May 9, 2014 the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2014 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for both the “current” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” 2014/15. The
“new crop” 2014 U.S. grain sorghum production projections are based on 2014 U.S. grain sorghum planted
acreage projections from the survey based USDA March 31st Pr …
August 31, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
3.60
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U.S. Corn Yield
The USDA has forecast 2016 U.S. corn average yields to be 175.1 bu/ac – up markedly from the projection
of 168.0 in July, and up from 168.4 bu/ac in 2015 (2nd highest) and the record high of 171.0 ma in 2014 (Table 1
and Figure 5). Figure 5 shows the 1973‐2015 U.S. corn yield trend with USDA and KSU U.S. corn yield
projections for 2016. This USDA projection is given a 20% probability of occurring (by KSU Extension Agricultural
Economist Daniel O’Brien). The USDA’s August 12th forecast of 2016 U.S. corn yield is estimated by USDA NASS and is
based on objective yield and farmer operator surveys conducted between July 25 …
September 22, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
… s production in the overall U.S.)
These lower KSU yield estimates follow from or are informed by the results of independent corn
production surveys of key U.S. Corn Belt states (Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, and South
Dakota) and that occurred during the week of August 22‐26, which showed generally lower corn yields and
production than that of the USDA – with a combination of smaller corn ear weights and other in field problems
in these seven (7) major corn producing states. The U.S. corn yield estimate from one prominent crop tour
was approximately 5 bushels per acre less than the USDA projection of 175 bushels – based heavily on the
yields in these same 7 key states. If corn yields elsewhere in the U.S. is down by similar proportions, then the
overall 2016 U.S. corn yield could decline as low as in the KSU scenarios identified above.
Figure 5. United States’ Corn Yield Trend for 1973‐2016 as of the September 12, 2016 USDA Crop Production
and WASDE reports
129.3
160.3 …
December 28, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
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I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
December 9th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On December 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2014/15, 2015/16, and “new crop” 2016/17 marketing years (MY) for corn. “New
crop” MY 2016/17 for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2016 and will last through 8/31/2017. The USDA National
Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) also released its December Crop Production report on the same day.
However, the December NASS Crop Production report was not survey based, but instead carrie …
July 17, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
…
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I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
July 12th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On July 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its July 2017 World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand and price
projections for the 2015/16, “current” 2015/16, and “next crop” 2017/18 marketing years (MY) for corn. The
“next crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn will begin on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31, 2018.
Earlier, on June 30th, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) (https://www.nass.usda.gov/) had
released it’s Acreage (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/Acre/Acre‐06‐30‐2017.pdf) and Grain Stocks
(http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/GraiStoc/GraiStoc‐06‐30‐2017.pdf) reports. Planted and harvested acreage
estimates from the Acreage report were used by the USDA to develop the July 12th projection of 2017 U.S.
corn production in the Crop Production and WASDE reports. The grain stocks estimates released on June 30th
were used to calculate U.S. corn livestock feed and residual usage in “current” MY 2016/17 – focusing on usage
in the March‐May 2017 time period.
According to the USDA on p. 12 of the July 12, 2017 WASDE report, “The (corn) yield projection is based on a
weather‐adjusted trend assuming normal mid‐May planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988‐
2016 time period, and includes a downward stochastic adjustment to account for the asymmetric response of yield to July precipitation.”
Consequently, the USDA followed the July 2017 “crop model” based projection with it’s first “hard
numbers” estimate of 2017 U.S. corn yields, but will switch to farmer survey and actual on‐farm field samples
in its upcoming August 10, 2017 NASS Crop Production and WAOB World Agricultural Supply and Demand
(WASDE) reports. These August 10th reports are intended to represent a combination of farmers’ own crop
observations and actual in‐the‐field conditions for the U.S. corn crop – with the intent of measuring 2017 U.S.
corn yield prospects as of August 1, 2017.
CME JULY & DECEMBER 2017 Corn Futures Trends
JULY 2017 CME Corn Futures
Following a low of $3.40 ¼ on August 31, 2016, JULY 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices trended up to a high of $3.81 ¾ on October 20, 2016 (Figure 1). Following that high, JULY 2017
corn futures prices declined to a low of $3.57 ¼ on December 1, 2016, before moving to an eventual high of
$3.93 ¾ on February 16, 2017. Since then, JULY 2017 corn futures traded from lows $3.56 ¼ on January 29th
to highs of $3.89 ½ on June 9th, and $3.94 ½ on July 11th, before closing at $3.65 ¼ on July 14, 2017.
DECEMBER 2017 CME Corn Futures
In a similar trading pattern to JULY 2017 corn futures, following a low of $3.58 ½ on August 31, 2016,
DECEMBER 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures prices trended up to a high of $3.95 ¼ on
October 20, 2016 (Figure 1). Following that high, DEC 2017 corn futures prices declined to lows of $3.74 ¼ on
November 15th and $3.74 ½ on December 1, 2016, before moving to an eventual high of $4.04 on February
28th. Since then, DEC 2017 corn futures traded in the range from lows $3.74 on June 23rd to highs of $4.09 on
June 8th, and $4.17 ¼ on July 11th, before closing at $3.89 ½ on July 14, 2017.
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CME Corn Futures 2017 Contract Spreads
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between JULY 2017 and DECEMBER 2017 corn futures
on Friday, July 14th was $0.24 ¼ per bushel (i.e., $3.89 ½ for DECEMBER 2017 Corn less $3.65 ¼ for JULY 2017
Corn), or $0.0485 per bushel per month. This compares to commercial grain storage charges in Kansas grain
elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before accounting for interest or additional
handling costs or other discounts.
Figure 1. JULY 2017 & DECEMBER 2017 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts (as of May 17, 2017)
ne …
September 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
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I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
September 12th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On September 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its September 2017
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2016/17, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing years
(MY) for corn. The “new crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2017 and will last through
August 31, 2018. Earlier, on June 30th, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
(https://www.nass.usda.gov/) had released it’s Acreage (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/old crop/Acre/Acre‐06‐30‐2017.pdf) and
Grain Stocks (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/old crop/GraiStoc/GraiStoc‐06‐30‐2017.pdf) reports. Planted and harvested
acreage estimates from the June 30th Acreage report were used by the USDA to develop both the August 10th
and September 12th projections of 2017 U.S. corn production in the Crop Production and WASDE reports.
The USDA used at combination of in field objective yield measurements and farmers surveys conducted
between August …
October 25, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
g stocks of 201.0 mmt (18.9% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.0
mmt (21.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 214.0 mmt (22.1% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 121.8 mmt
(14.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 125.7 mmt (15.1% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 103.2 mmt (13.8% S/U). These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s direct influence
are projected to be down approximately 22% (i.e., 14.8% S/U for the “World Less China” versus 18.9% S/U for
the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.8% in MY 2015/16, to 44.6% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 39.4%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold.
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I. USDA Reports, Corn Futures, Seasonal Prices & U.S. Dollar
I‐a. October 12th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On October 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its October 2017 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2016/17, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing years (MY).
The “new crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31, 2018.
On the same day the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its October 2017 Crop
Production report. In this report the USDA used a combination of in‐field objective yield measurements and
farmer surveys conducted between Septembe …