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May 9, 2013
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Animal ID & Traceability
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December 3, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
I‐E. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
In the September 30, 2015 Small Grains 2015 Summary report and subsequent October 9th and November
10th 2015 Crop Production reports, the USDA has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total planted acreage is
54.644 million acres (ma), down 2.197 ma (‐3.9%) from 56.841 ma in 2014, down 1.592 ma (‐2.8%) from
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56.236 ma in 2013, and down from 55.294 ma in 2012, but still up from 54.277 ma in 2011, and the 6 year low
of 52.620 ma in 2010 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
Winter Wheat Planted Acres: The USDA left unchanged its previous October forecast of 2015 U.S. winter
wheat plantings to 39.461 ma, down 2.948 ma (‐7.0%) from 42.409 ma in 2014, and down 3.769 ma (‐8.7%)
from 43.230 ma in 2013. Of this total, 28.98 ma are projected to have been seeded to Hard Red Winter (HRW)
wheat in 2015, down 5% from 30.50 ma in 2014, and down 2.3% from 29.67 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter
(SRW) wheat planted acreage is projected at 7.09 ma, down 16.4% from 8.48 ma in 2014, and down 29.4%
from 10.04 ma in 2013. For 2015, USDA projects there to be 4.130 ma of All White Wheat planted, with 3.396
ma of winter white (WW) wheat (down from 3.427 ma in 2014), and 734,000 acres of spring white (SW)
wheat (down from 778,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Planted Acres: The USDA also left unchanged it’s previous October projection of total
U.S. other spring wheat plantings in 2015 to be 13.247 ma, up 222,000 acres (+1.7%) from 13.025 ma in 2014,
and up 1.641 ma (+14.1%) from 11.606 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.51 ma are seeded to Hard Red Spring
(HRS) wheat, up from 12.25 ma in 2014, and from 10.94 ma in 2013.
Durum Wheat Planted Acres: Durum wheat plantings in the U.S. in 2015 are still projected by the USDA
at 1.936 ma in 2015, up 529,000 acres (+37.6%) from 1.407 ma in 2014, and up 536,000 acres (+38.3%) from
1.400 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Harvested Acreage
In the September 30, 2015 USDA Small Grains 2015 Summary report and subsequent October 9th and
November 10th 2015 Crop Production reports the USDA has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total harvested
acreage is 47.094 million acres (ma), up 709,000 acres (+1.5%) from 46.385 ma in 2014, and up 1.762 ma
(+3.9%) from 45.332 ma in 2013, while down from 48.758 ma in 2012, and up from 45.687 ma in 2011 (Table 1
and Figures 4 and 5).
Aggregated total U.S. percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage was estimated to be 86.2% in 2015, up from
81.6% in 2014, 80.6% in 2013, and comparable to the range of 76.0%‐89.1% (average = 84.1%) over the 2000‐
2014 period (Table 1 and Figure 5). The proportion of harvested‐to‐planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of
80.6% was the 4th lowest during this period, behind 76.0% in 2002 and 81.6% in 2006 and 2014.
Winter Wheat Harvested Acres: The USDA maintained its previous October forecast of 2015 U.S. winter
wheat harvested acreage at 33.257 ma, down 42,000 acres (‐0.1%) from 32.299 ma in 2014, down 393,000
acres (‐1.2%) from 32.650 ma in 2013, and down 2.352 ma (‐6.8%) from 34.609 ma in 2012. Of this total, 23.14
ma were projected to be Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, up 5.6% from 21.92 ma in 2014, and up from
20.39 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat harvested acreage was projected to be 5.89 ma, down 17.7%
from 7.16 ma in 2014, and down 34.0% from 8.92 ma in 2013. For 2015, USDA projects there to be 3.939 ma
of All White Wheat harvested, with 3.221 ma of white winter (WW) wheat (down marginally from 3.219 ma in
2014), and 718,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat (down 4.0% from 748,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Harvested Acres: The USDA also maintained it’s October projection that total U.S.
other spring wheat harvested area in 2015 is 12.941 ma – down 276,000 acres from it’s previous forecast.
This projection of 12.941 ma of 2015 U.S. other spring wheat harvested acres is up 201,000 acres (+1.6%) from
12.740 ma in 2014, and up 1.597 ma (+14.1%) from 11.344 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.22 ma are Hard Red
Spring (HRS) wheat, up from 11.99 ma in 2014, and from 10.70 ma in 2013.
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Durum Wheat Harvested Acres: Durum wheat harvested area in the U.S. in 2015 are projected by the
USDA to be 1.896 ma in 2015, but up 555,000 acres (+40.9%) from 1.338 ma in 2014, and up 558,000 acres
(+41.7%) from 1.338 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
In the November 2015 WASDE report the USDA maintained it’s October projection of 2015 U.S. average
wheat yields to be 43.6 bushels per acre (bu/ac) – down from 44.1 bu/ac in August‐September, and 44.3 bu/ac
in July, but up from 43.5 bu/ac in May 2015. This projection of 2015 U.S. wheat yields of 43.6 bu/ac is down
from 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, but less than the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, and the previous record of 46.2
bu/ac in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 6).
Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (54.644 ma), harvested acreage (47.094
ma), and yield (43.6 bu/ac), 2015 U.S. wheat production continues to be projected at 2.052 billion bushels (bb).
This projection of 2015 U.S. wheat production of 2.052 bb is up from 2.026 bb in 2014, and within the 2004‐
2014 range of 1.808‐2 …
December 22, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
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I‐E. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
Beginning with the September 30, 2015 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Small Grains
2015 Summary report and following with its’ subsequent October 9th, November 10th, and December 9th USDA
NASS 2015 Crop Production reports, the USDA has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total planted acreage is
54.644 million acres (ma), down 2.178 ma (‐3.8%) from 56.822 ma in 2014, down 1.592 ma (‐2.8%) from
56.236 ma in 2013, and down from 55.294 ma in 2012, but still up from 54.277 ma in 2011, and the 6 year low
of 52.620 ma in 2010 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
Winter Wheat Planted Acres: In the December 9th NASS Crop Production report the USDA left unchanged
its previous October‐November forecast of 2015 U.S. winter wheat plantings of 39.461 ma, down 2.948 ma (‐
7.0%) from 42.409 ma in 2014, and down 3.769 ma (‐8.7%) from 43.230 ma in 2013. Of this total, 28.98 ma
are projected to have been seeded to Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, down 5% from 30.50 ma in
2014, and down 2.3% from 29.67 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat planted acreage is projected at
7.09 ma, down 16.4% from 8.48 ma in 2014, and down 29.4% from 10.04 ma in 2013. For 2015, USDA projects
there to be 4.130 ma of All White Wheat planted, with 3.396 ma of winter white (WW) wheat (down from
3.427 ma in 2014), and 734,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat (down from 778,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Planted Acres: In December the USDA also left unchanged it’s previous October‐
November projections of total U.S. other spring wheat plantings in 2015 to be 13.247 ma, up 222,000 acres
(+1.7%) from 13.025 ma in 2014, and up 1.641 ma (+14.1%) from 11.606 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.51 ma
are seeded to Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, up from 12.25 ma in 2014, and from 10.94 ma in 2013.
Durum Wheat Planted Acres: Durum wheat plantings in the U.S. in 2015 are still projected by the USDA
at 1.936 ma in 2015, up 529,000 acres (+37.6%) from 1.407 ma in 2014, and up 536,000 acres (+38.3%) from
1.400 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Harvested Acreage
Also beginning in the September 30, 2015 USDA Small Grains 2015 Summary report and subsequent
October, November, and December USDA NASS 2015 Crop Production reports the USDA has projected that
2015 U.S. wheat total harvested acreage is 47.094 million acres (ma), up 709,000 acres (+1.5%) from 46.385
ma in 2014, and up 1.762 ma (+3.9%) from 45.332 ma in 2013, while down from 48.758 ma in 2012, and up
from 45.687 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
Aggregated total U.S. percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage was estimated to be 86.2% in 2015, up from
81.6% in 2014, 80.6% in 2013, and comparable to the range of 76.0%‐89.1% (average = 84.1%) over the 2000‐
2014 period (Table 1 and Figure 5). The proportion of harvested‐to‐planted U.S. wheat acreage in 2013 of
80.6% was the 4th lowest during this period, behind 76.0% in 2002 and 81.6% in 2006 and 2014.
Winter Wheat Harvested Acres: In December the USDA maintained its previous October‐November
forecasts of 2015 U.S. winter wheat harvested acreage at 33.257 ma, down 42,000 acres (‐0.1%) from 32.299
ma in 2014, down 393,000 acres (‐1.2%) from 32.650 ma in 2013, and down 2.352 ma (‐6.8%) from 34.609 ma
in 2012. Of this total, 23.14 ma were projected to be Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in 2015, up 5.6% from
21.92 ma in 2014, and up from 20.39 ma in 2013. Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat harvested acreage was
projected to be 5.89 ma, down 17.7% from 7.16 ma in 2014, and down 34.0% from 8.92 ma in 2013. For 2015,
Page | 6
USDA projects there to be 3.939 ma of All White Wheat harvested, with 3.221 ma of white winter (WW)
wheat (down marginally from 3.219 ma in 2014), and 718,000 acres of spring white (SW) wheat (down 4.0%
from 748,000 acres in 2014).
Other Spring Wheat Harvested Acres: The USDA also maintained it’s October‐November projections that
total U.S. other spring wheat harvested area in 2015 is 12.941 ma – down 276,000 acres from it’s previous
forecast. This projection of 12.941 ma of 2015 U.S. other spring wheat harvested acres is up 201,000 acres
(+1.6%) from 12.740 ma in 2014, and up 1.597 ma (+14.1%) from 11.344 ma in 2013. Of this total, 12.22 ma
are Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, up from 11.99 ma in 2014, and from 10.70 ma in 2013.
Durum Wheat Harvested Acres: Durum wheat harvested area in the U.S. in 2015 are projected by the
USDA to be 1.896 ma in 2015, but up 555,000 acres (+40.9%) from 1.338 ma in 2014, and up 558,000 acres
(+41.7%) from 1.338 ma in 2013.
U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
In the December 9, 2015 USDA NASS Crop Production report the USDA maintained it’s October‐November
projections of 2015 U.S. average wheat yields to be 43.6 bushels per acre (bu/ac) – down from projections of
44.1 bu/ac in August‐September, and 44.3 bu/ac in July, but up from 43.5 bu/ac in May 2015. This projection
of 2015 U.S. wheat yields of 43.6 bu/ac is down from 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, but less than the record high of 47.1
bu/ac in 2013, and the previous record high of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 6).
Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (54.644 ma), harvested acreage (47.094
ma), and yield (43.6 bu/ac), 2015 U.S. wheat production continues to be projected at 2.052 billion bushels
(bb). This projection of 2015 U.S. wheat production of 2.052 bb is up from 2.026 bb in 2014, and within the
2004‐2014 range of 1.808‐2 …
March 14, 2013
Macro and Global Economic Perspectives
5,689
Number of Trading Days After Event
DJIA During and After Great … 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Rate of Return
3/4/2013
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November 11, 2013
Marketing Publications
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