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September 15, 2021
Fed Cattle Pricing
with black-swan types of events have raised
concerns about … adverse impacts of
such events. However, we advise careful … careful separation of how these events adversely
affected market …
June 19, 2023
Ag Law Issues
each potential liability event will turn on those facts … Health Savings Account (HSA). Surveys
indicate that a self-employed …
August 1, 2024
Breakout Sessions
negative result in the drought event .
➢ Long-term effects … https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2020.00098 USDA NASS Survey.
Farm Bills
• Historical …
September 1, 2025
2025 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
https://www.agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand/
monthly-meat-demand-monitor-survey-data
Meat Demand Monitor … 20
https://www.asi.k-state.edu/events/stockerfieldday/
US consumer …
April 1, 2005
Industry Economics & Trade
49
6.1 Consumer Survey … 49
6.2 Survey Results … Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) Events …
January 1, 2009
Animal ID & Traceability
The first set of scenarios compare doing nothing (status quo) to adopting
full animal tracing for just the bovine sector. The bovine sector is the
focus here because it is it the sector among bovine, porcine, ovine, and
poultry that would incur the largest adoption cost of NAIS practices.
Under the status quo scenarios, we further explore what the impacts are
if by doing nothing we also lose export market access. We are likely to
lose export market access over time if we do not adopt NAIS practices,
even without any major market or major animal disease event, because
the international marketplace is making animal identification and tracing
systems the norm and any country that does not conform will have less
market access.
Table 2 summarizes the total loss per head to producers in the beef
sector, after all markets adjust as a result of not adopting NAIS practices
(i.e., status quo) under 0%, 10%, 25%, and 50% permanent export
market losses for beef. If we do nothing to adopt NAIS, and nothing
happens to export markets, the result is no cost, no market loss. If we do
nothing and we lose market access, which we believe is likely, the beef
industry will suffer losses. The losses would amount to $18.25 per head if
we do not adopt NAIS and we lose 25% of export market share. To put
this into perspective, this would be about like losing access to the South
Korean export market at 2003 export market shares.
Table 2. Net Annual Loss in Beef Producer Surplus from Status Quo
with Varying Export Market Losses
Export Market Loss Incurred
0% …
July 16, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
roduction in North America or other major wheat producing regions of the World, or geopolitically‐driven
disruptions to trade World wheat markets in such places as the Middle East or the Black Sea region. Unless or
until such disruptive events as these would occur, World wheat market prospects are pointing to steady‐to‐
lower World wheat prices.
USDA U.S. Wheat Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: Compared to a year earlier, the USDA projected
lower 2014 U.S. wheat production, reduced wheat usage, an increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks and %
stocks‐to‐use, and lower prices in “new crop” MY 2014/15. The USDA’s projected “new crop” market scenario
is: 56.5 million acres (ma) planted, 46.2 ma harvested, 81.9% harvested‐to‐planted acres, 43.1 bu/ac yield (up
from 42.3 bu/ac a month ago), a 1.992 billion bushel (bb) 2014 U.S. wheat crop (up 50 million bushels or ‘mb’),
2.741 bb total supplies (up 46 mb), 900 mb exports (down 25 mb), 2.081 bb total use (down 40 mb), 660 mb
ending stocks (up 86 mb), 31.7% ending stocks‐to‐use (up from 27.1%), and $6.60 average price per bu. (range
of $6.00 to $7.20) – down from $7.00 /bu.
KSU U.S. Wheat Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2014/15: KSU projections of “new crop” MY 2014/15 supply‐
demand balances and prices are as follows: a) “Likely Production” Scenario: 65% prob. of 46.2 ma harvested,
43.1 bu/ac, 1.992 bb 2014 U.S. wheat production, 2.741 bb U.S. wheat supplies, 900 mb exports, 2.081 bb total
use, 660 mb ending stocks, 31.7% S/U, & $6.10 /bu; b) “Low Production” Scenario: 20% prob. of 45.4 ma
harvested, low yields of 41.1 bu/ac (both harvested acres and yield lower than USDA), 1.868 bb 2014 U.S.
wheat production, 2.628 bb U.S. wheat supplies, 890 mb exports, 2.061 bb total use, 567 mb ending stocks,
27.5% S/U, & $6.55 /bu; and c) “Expected Production – Higher Exports” Scenario: 15% prob. of 46.2 ma
harvested, yields of 43.1 bu/ac, 1.992 bb 2014 U.S. wheat production, 2.741 bb U.S. wheat supplies, 1.050 bb
exports (up 150 mb from USDA forecast), 2.231 bb total use, 510 mb ending stocks, 22.9% S/U, & $7.50 /bu.
USDA World Wheat: World wheat total supplies of 889.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are down marginally
from 889.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2013/14, but up from 854.9 mmt in MY 2012/13. Projected World wheat
ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2014/15 of 189.5 mmt (27.0% S/U) are up from 184.3 mmt (26.1% S/U) in MY
2013/14, and from 175.6 mmt (25.9% S/U) in MY 2012/13.
For market perspective these levels of World wheat stocks need to be analyzed relative to the historic World
wheat stocks minimum of 129.4 mmt (21.0% S/U) in MY 2007/08. Year‐over‐year increases are projected for
wheat exports in “new crop” MY 2014/15 for Argentina (+4.5 mmt), Brazil (+0.4 mmt), and Russia (+1.0 mmt),
with decreases forecast for the U.S. (‐7.7 mmt), Australia (‐0.5 mmt), Canada (‐1.5 mmt), the EU (‐2.5 mmt),
India (‐2.4 mmt), Kazakhstan (‐2.4 mmt), and Ukraine (‐0.5 mmt). …
December 31, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
zilian feedgrain harvest and lack of exportable supplies in earlier in 2016, as well as other World
coarse grain market factors, and 4) the always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or
financial system disruptions impacting grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017.
For example, U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2017 could lead to increases
in U.S. interest rates and the value of the U.S. dollar relative to other World currencies, which could in turn
have a negative impact on U.S. grain sorghum exports. Also, World geo‐political events could provide
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unanticipated “shocks” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets. The impact on the direction of U.S. and
World grain sorghum and corn markets from these potential disruptions is difficult to anticipate or predict.
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “Current” MY 2016/17: The USDA has projected of 2016 U.S. sorghum
plantings of 6.761 ma, harvested acres of 6.045 ma, record high yields of 76.5 bu/ac (vs 76.0 bu/ac in 2015 and
67.6 bu/ac in 2014), resulting in a 2016 U.S. grain sorghum production is forecast to be 462 mb – down from
597 mb in 2015, but above 433 mb in 2014, and 392 mb in 2013.
With forecast “current” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 500 mb, total use of 465 mb, and projected ending stocks
of 35 mb (7.48% S/U), U.S. grain sorghum prices are projected by the USDA to be in the range of $2.80‐$3.30
(midpoint = $3.05 /bu). Ending stocks of 35 mb (7.48% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17 compare to 37 mb
(6.28% S/U) in MY 2015/16, and 18 mb (4.10% S/U) in MY 2004/05. United States grain sorghum prices of
$3.05 /bu in “current” MY 2016/17 continue the downward trend from $3.31 /bu in MY 2015/16, $4.03 in MY
2014/15, $4.28 in MY 2013/14, and the record high of $6.33 /bu in the drought year of MY 2012/13.
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: With early USDA projections of 2017 U.S.
sorghum plantings of 6.300 ma (down 461,000 acres), harvested acres of 5.400 ma (down 645,000 acres),
projected yields of 67.1 bu/ac (vs the record high of 76.5 bu in 2016), 2017 U.S. grain sorghum production is
forecast to be 362 mb – down from 462 mb in 2016, and 597 mb in 2015.
With forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies of 397 mb (down from 500 mb last year and 620 mb the
year before), total use of 365 mb (down from 465 mb last year and 583 the year before), and projected ending
stocks of 32 mb (8.76% S/U) – down from 35 mb (7.48% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17 – U.S. sorghum prices
are projected by the USDA to average $3.10 /bu.
Note: This is a “large U.S. feedgrain crop” – “no major U.S. or Foreign crop problem” scenario. Emerging
production threats and the actual outcome of 2017 U.S. grain sorghum and corn production will drive the U.S.
grain sorghum market in “next crop” MY 2017/18.
World Coarse Grain Supply‐Demand: Record high World coarse grain production of 1,329.35 million metric
tons (mmt) is projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 6.4% from 1,249.65 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 1.8%
from 1,306.1 mmt in MY 2014/15. Record high World coarse grain total supplies of 1,574.15 mmt are
projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 1,495.0 mmt in MY 2015/16, and from 1,517.2 mmt in MY
2014/15. “Coarse grains” include grain sorghum, corn, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains.
World coarse grain exports of 185.2 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up 12.4% from 164.8 mmt
in MY 2015/16, and down 0.5% from 186.1 mmt in MY 2014/15. Projected record high World coarse grain
ending stocks of 254.9 mmt (19.3% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 244.8 mmt (19.6% S/U) in MY
2015/16, but down from 245.4 mmt (19.3% S/U) in MY 2014/15.
Although World coarse grain ending stocks are projected to be a record high in “new crop” MY 2016/17 at
254.9 mmt, World coarse grain percent ending stocks‐to‐use in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are forecast to
actually decline marginally to 19.3% ‐ indicative that strong World demand for coarse grains at low prices is
expected to continue – especially in Europe where grain production has been hampered by extreme weather
conditions in the last year.
…
July 17, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
…
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predominates in local Kansas grain markets, it is a positive market signal that Kansas cash corn prices have
enough support to have avoided falling down to USDA loan rate levels.
Major Corn Market Considerations
First, large beginning stocks of U.S. corn coming into “next crop” MY 2017/18 have been a “mitigating” or
“limiting” factor affecting the response of the corn market to 2017 production risk. The corn market is less
anxious about having adequate corn supplies in the face of 2017 U.S. corn production risk when beginning
stocks are 2.370 bb rather than 1.000 bb. Second, it is anticipated that moderately low prices of U.S. corn will
help maintain strong usage for domestic U.S. ethanol and wet milling production, as well as livestock feeding
through at least summer‐fall 2017.
Third, at least moderate continued strength is expected in U.S. corn exports due to moderately low U.S. corn
prices. Exports of U.S. corn are expected to continue at a “decent” pace” even though South American corn
production will continue to be a competitive factor in World trade through at least the end of 2017. Fourth,
the possibility exists of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that could
impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017‐2018. World geo‐political events have the
potential to p …
October 22, 2019
Grain Marketing Presentations
Oilseeds)
2
Grain Market Events to Come ….
1) 2019 U.S … Wheat
3
More Grain Market Events to Anticipate
3) Production … last 20-30%
• USDA to re-survey & for the November Crop Production …