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May 7, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
Overall World Wheat Market Situation
Prospects for continued large World wheat supplies and ending stocks, ongoing weakness in U.S. wheat
export shipments, and declining prospects for future U.S. wheat export sales have been the main causes of
this downtrend in U.S. HRW wheat prices. A general “malaise” in U.S. grain markets and grain prices may also
be having a spillover impact on wheat markets. “Malaise” is defined as “a general feeling of discomfort, illness, or
uneasiness whose exact cause is difficult to identify.”
The current ongoing, large ending stocks situation that exists in the U.S. and World wheat markets has
developed over the last 5‐6 years. This situation extends back to the historically important “short crop / tight
stocks” situation that occurred in the 2012/13 marketing year. Prior to that, the last “watershed” event in U.S.
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and World wheat markets were the record tight supply‐demand 2007/08 marketing year for the U.S. and
World wheat market.
A combination of market factors have all worked together to limit any improvement in U.S. wheat exports
in “current” MY 2018/19 and any significant price improvement in current U.S. wheat markets. These include:
#1) Large World carryover ending stocks from “old crop” MY 2017/18 which became “beginning stocks” in
“current” MY 2018/19;
#2) Successful wheat crops in many other exporting and importing countries in the World; and
#3) The willingness of the Black Sea Region countries (i.e., Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan) to sell down their
domestic reserve stocks to maintain their export market shares.
The selling off of domestic inventories has allowed Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan maintain their export
market shares in “current” MY 2018/19. However, this strategy also makes them more vulnerable to any
repeated crop shortfalls that could occur in “new crop” MY 2019/20 – which will begin on June 1, 2019. The
risk of this action by Russia and other countries is that by deliberately allowing their domestic stocks to decline
below normal levels in this marketing year they place themselves at risk to the effect of unforeseen short
crops and tight supply situation in the future. As a result, they and the broader global wheat export market
are more vulnerable to market volatility and supply‐demand disruptions because of their reduction in
protective “buffer” carryover ending stocks.
4 …
January 31, 2022
Ag Law Issues
quite troubling. In any event, it points to
the need for … In addition, farmers who previously waived
an election to carryback … carryback if a farmer had previously waived the five-year
carryback …
October 29, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
… I‐E. U.S. Wheat Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
In the September 30, 2015 Small Grains 2015 Summary report and subsequent October 9th 2015 Crop
Production report the USDA has projected that 2015 U.S. wheat total planted acreage is 54.644 million acres
(ma), down 1.435 ma from the USDA’s earlier projection of 56.079 ma in the June 30th Acreage report and
subsequent July‐September Crop Production reports. This projection of 54.644 ma of 2015 U.S. wheat
planted area is down 2.197 ma (‐3.9%) from 56.841 ma in 2014 (adjusted up 19 ma), down 1.592 ma (‐2.8%)
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from 56.236 ma in 2013, and down from 55.294 ma in 2012, but still up from 54.277 ma in 2011, and the 6
year low of 52.620 ma in 2010 (Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5).
Winter Wheat Planted Acres: The USDA lowered its forecast of 2015 U.S. winter wheat plantings to
39.461 ma – down 1.159 ma from it’s previous estimate, down 2.948 ma …
January 1, 2005
Land Rental
Rates, Leasing Papers
and Presentations, Land Leasing
Forms
tenancy will continue.
The law previously applied to “farm” leases … Before Termination
In the event the landowner has given proper … a satisfactory stand the previous fall and proper notice
to …
March 17, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
planted acreage projected to be 7.2% vs 2015
USDA Estimate of All U.S. Wheat Acres in 2016 = 51.000 mln ac. (3,644,000 ac or 7.2%)
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U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
The USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum projection is for 2016 U.S. wheat yields to be 45.9 bu/ac, up from
43.6, and 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, but less than the record high of 47.1 bu/ac in 2013, and the previous record high
of 46.2 bu/ac in 2012 (Table 1 and Figure 6). The KSU projection of 2016 U.S. average wheat yields is 46.0
bu/ac, which is a trendline forecast for 2016 from the 1973‐2015 time period.
Figure 6. U.S. All Wheat Yield (1973‐2015) and USDA 2016 Early Projection as of March 9, 2016
USDA Production Forecast for 2016: Based on this combination of USDA projections for 2016 planted
acreage (51.000 ma), harvested acreage (43.400 ma), and yield (45.9 bu/ac), 2016 U.S. wheat production is
projected to be 1.991 billion bushels (bb). This USDA projection of 2016 U.S. wheat production of 1.991 bb is
down from 2.052 bb in 2015, 2.026 bb in 2014, and within the 2004‐2013 range of 1.808‐2.512 bb (average =
2.128 bb, median = 2.135 bb) (Table 1 and Figure 7). The KSU projection for 2016 production of U.S. wheat is
2.010 bb – up 0.01% from the 2016 USDA production forecast of 1.991 bb.
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27.3
34.2
39.4
32.7
39.5 …
September 6, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Harvested of Planted
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U.S. Wheat Yields & Production
U.S. Wheat Yields: In its August 12th USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports the USDA projected 2016
U.S. wheat yields to be a record high 52.6 bu/ac – up 1.3 bu from the July WASDE report. The USDA forecast
U.S. wheat yield of 52.6 bu/ac in 2016 is up from 43.6 bu/ac in 2015, and 43.7 bu/ac in 2014, greater than the
previous record high of 47.1 bu/a …
November 1, 2011
Beef Cattle
www.asi.ksu.edu/beeftips
Upcoming Events
Range Beef Cow Symposium … 29-Dec. 1, 2011
Mitchell Event Center,
Mitchell, Neb … grass may be improved by
previous grazing experience or supplementation …
October 22, 2012
76-100%
5. I don’t know
Events Summary
• U.S. State-by-State … agreements
• Live Trade Events
– May 11’: Australia …
May 23, 2024
Ag Law Issues
to trace livestock in the event
that disease is found, which … eartags that have been used in previous years, and which represents … for rodeo or
recreational events; and cattle and bison of …
August 1, 2025
Breakout Sessions
Slow onset of climate impacts (rising sea levels)• Extreme weather events (hurricanes, drought, etc.)• … Aligns with and supports previous literature (Bailey and Wellesley, 2017)• … Knowing where we (the U.S.) stand risk wise so we can be better prepared for unexpected events
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N e x t - G e n K …