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December 28, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
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I. U.S. Grain Sorghum Market Situation and Outlook
I‐a. December 12th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On December 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2017
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World grain sorghum
supply‐demand and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2016/17, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing
years (MY). The “new crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2017 and will last through
August 31, 2018. Monthly USDA WASDE estimates of U.S. crop and livestock supply‐demand and prices can
be found at the following web address: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
On the same day the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its December 2017
Crop Production report. This report can be found at the following web address:
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd‐12‐12‐2017.pdf
The next survey‐based report of U.S. corn production results for 2017 will be released in the USDA Annual
Crop Production Summary and Crop Production reports on January 12, 2018. The same U.S. on‐farm grain
sorghum plots which were sampled for the August, September, October, and November USDA NASS Crop
Production reports will revisited for the January 2018 report – with final 2017 post‐harvest production results
reported.
On November 28, 2017 the USDA released its Long Term Agricultural Projections through year 2027.
United States’ grain sorghum supply‐demand and price projections were included, along with corn, wheat,
soybeans, cotton and other major crops. These Long Term Agricultural Projections can be found at the
following website: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/
I‐b. Kansas Grain Sorghum Seasonal Average Price Trends
During the eighteen (18) year period from the 1999/2000 through 2016/17 marketing years the typical
season price pattern for grain sorghum in Kansas exhibited pronounced pre‐harvest through harvest lows
during September‐October (Figure 2). Then prices have trended higher from November through April,
becoming level at seasonal highs during the April through June period. Kansas grain sorghum prices then
tended to decline from June into July, and then to decline further into August. The widest variability around
these average seasonal price trends occurred during the June through September period.
So far during the “new crop” 2017/18 marketing year which began on September 1, 2017, U.S. grain
sorghum prices declined from September‐October into November, but have recovered from November lows
into December 2017 in a stronger manner than normal (Figure 2). Contra‐seasonal strength in U.S. grain
sorghum prices in December 2017 is attributed to strong demand for U.S. grain sorghum exports – primary
from China and Japan.
These long‐term average price trends for Kansas are compared to projections of “new crop” MY 2017/18
U.S. grain sorghum average prices. These projections are based on U.S. cash grain sorghum and corn prices for
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September and October 2017 from USDA NASS, CME corn futures prices on December 26, 2017, and 2016/17
marketing years monthly average U.S. corn basis levels.
This updated version of Kansas State University projections for the complete “new crop” MY 2017/18
projects U.S. grain sorghum season average prices to average $3.25 per bushel. This is up $0.15 per bushel
from the December 12th USDA WASDE midpoint projection of $3.10, but within the upper end of the USDA
forecast range of $2.75‐$3.45 per bushel (Figure 2). These findings indicated that it is likely SEPT 2018 and DEC
2018 CME corn futures prices are higher than they would be if grain markets were more confident at this time
of “average‐to‐large” 2018 U.S. corn and grain sorghum crops. These corn futures contract prices are likely to
decline in Spring‐early Summer 2018 IF significant combined U.S. corn and grain sorghum production problems
ultimately do NOT emerge in the growing season next year.
Figure 2. Kansas Grain Sorghum Seasonal Price Index (MY 1999/00 – MY 2016/17) plus “New Crop”
MY 2017/18 Estimates as of December 26, 2017 (Sources: KSU www.AgManager.info & USDA ERS http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐
products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx)
II. U.S. Grain Sorghum Acreage, Yield, Production & Total Supplies
Table 1 shows the USDA U.S. grain sorghum supply‐demand balance sheet for the MY 2008/09 through
“new crop” MY 2017/18 period. Table 1a focuses on “new crop” MY 2017/18 with the December 12th USDA
projection plus alternative possible market scenarios from Kansas State University. An adjusted version of the
USDA’s Long Term Agricultural Projection for U.S. grain sorghum supply‐demand and prices with forecasts for
“next crop” MY 2018/19 is also included in Table 1a. Grain sorghum planted and harvested planted acreage in
the U.S. for the 2006 – projected 2018 period are shown in Figure 2, with U.S. grain sorghum yields for 2006
through projected 2018 shown in Figure 3. United States’ grain sorghum production and total supplies for the
2005/06 through projected “next crop” 2018/19 marketing years are shown in Figure 4.
95 …
March 15, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
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I. USDA Reports, Corn Futures, Seasonal Prices & U.S. Dollar
I‐a. March 8th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On March 8th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its March 2018 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2015/16, 2016/17, and “old crop” 2017/18 marketing years (MY). The “current”
MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31, 2018.
On February 23rd the USDA Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) released its projections of U.S. Grain and
Oilseeds Outlook for “next crop” MY 2018/19 at the 94th annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington,
Virginia. The “next crop” 2018/19 marketing year for U.S. corn will begin on September 1, 2018 and will last
through August 31, 2019. The next USDA U.S. corn production and supply‐demand estimates for the “next
crop” 2018/19 marketing year will be released in the May 10th USDA WASDE report. The May 2018 WASDE
report estimate for “next crop” MY 2018/19 will be based on USDA Economic Research Service (ERS)
projections from the upcoming USDA Prospective Plantings Report acreage (to be released on March 29th),
historic harvested‐to‐planted acreage relationships, and 2018 trend yields.
However, the first USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimate of 2018 U.S. corn
production based on actual farmer surveys and in‐field corn plot measurements will be available on August
10th, followed by similar reports in the September, October, and November USDA NASS Crop Production
reports, and the final summary report for 2018 to be released in January 2019.
I‐b. CME MAY & DECEMBER 2018 Corn Futures Trends
MARCH 2018 CME Corn Futures
Following a high of $4.30 on July 11, 2017, MAY 2018 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures
prices trended downward through late summer, fall, and mid‐winter to a low of $3.53 ¾ on January 12, 2018
(Figure 1). Since then MAY 2018 corn futures prices have trended higher, up to a high or $3.95 ¼ on March 13,
2017, before closing at $3.86 ¾ on March 15th. In other words, through March 14th, MAY 2018 Corn futures
had risen to reclaim 54.4% of the $0.76 ¼ per bushel price decline that had occurred from July 11, 2017
through January 12, 2018.
DECEMBER 2018 CME Corn Futures
DECEMBER 2018 corn futures have followed a similar trading pattern to MAY 2018 corn futures. Following
highs of $4.29 ½ on July 11, 2017 and $4.28 on July 20th, DEC 2018 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices trended downward through late summer, fall, and into winter to lows of $3.79 ¼ on December
17‐18, 2017, $3.79 ¾ on January 12, 2018 (Figure 1). Since then DEC 2018 corn futures prices have trended
higher, up to a high or $4.11 ½ on March 13, 2017, before closing at $4.06 ¼ on March 15th. Similar to MAY
2018 corn futures, as of March 14th DEC 2018 corn futures had risen to reclaim 56.7% of the $0.50 ¼ per
bushel price decline that had occurred from July 11, 2017 through December 17‐18, 2017.
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CME Corn Futures MAY 2018 – SEPT 2018 Contract Spreads
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between MAY 2018 and SEPT 2018 corn futures on
Thursday, March 15th was $0.13 ¼ per bushel (i.e., $4.00 for SEPT 2018 Corn less $3.86 ¾ for MAY 2018 Corn),
or $0.0331 per bu. per month over 4 months. This compares to commercial grain storage charges in Kansas in
the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – and some as high as $0.06 per bushel per month in
adjoining states – before accounting for interest, additional handling costs, or other discounts.
Figure 1. MAY & DECEMBER 2018 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts (as of March 15, 2018) …
February 12, 2021
Meat Demand Research Studies
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II. National Survey and Analyses … series of experiments in
a survey of over 3,000 U.S. residents … analysis
presented from the survey, that while falling prices …
July 1, 2013
Land Buying and Valuing
problems with these data
– Surveys ask for an opinion (read …
September 24, 2012
Macro and Global Economic Perspectives
Advance Estimate
Real GDP Growth
Annualized percent change from previous quarter
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Wall Street Journal (WSJ) September 2012 Forecast Survey (Average)
WSJ
Forecast
(September)
Slow growth, but growth nonetheless.
Growth in Components of Real GDPAnnualized
percent change
from previous
quarter
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
While consumption remains positive, it is fairly
subdued. Investment has cooled in 2012.
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2
0
1
0 …
February 10, 2012
Macro and Global Economic Perspectives
Journal January 2012 Forecast Survey (Average)
WSJ
Forecast …
July 8, 2016
Land Rental
Rates
1 More recent surveys (Golden, Tsoodle, and Bigge … 67%, respectively. These survey results were based on a broader
sample … part-time farms. Thus, the older survey from KFMA is reported
here …
July 17, 2013
influence
• How: Lit review; surveyed consumers & experts
• Available …
March 2, 2012
Kansas Cow-Calf
Producer Survey (312 Respondents, 2009)
Rank …