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October 19, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
3.45
Page | 9
U.S. Corn Yield
The USDA has forecast 2016 U.S. corn average yields at what would be a new record high of 173.4 bu/ac,
down from 174.4 bu/ac in September and from 175.1 bu/ac in August, but still up markedly from the July 2016
projection of 168.0 bu/ac. This October 2016 USDA forecast of 173.4 bu/ac is up from 168.4 bu/ac in 2015 (3rd
highest on record), and the previous record high of 171.0 ma in 2014 (Table 1 and Figure 5). Figure 5 shows
the 1973‐2016 U.S. corn yield trend with a fitted trend line value of 165.3 bu/ac 2016 – down 8.1 bu/ac (down
4.8%) from the USDA October forecast of 173.4 bu/acre.
The USDA’s October 12th forecast of 2016 U.S. corn yield is estimated by USDA NASS and is based on
objective yield and farmer operator surveys conducted between September 24th and October 7th – which were
intended to represent 2016 U.S. corn yield prospects on October 1st. This USDA projection is given a 70%
probability of occurring (KSU Extension Ag Economist Daniel O’Brien).
An alternative “high yield capacity” perspective is provided by drawing a trend line across high yields of
160.3 bu/ac in 2004, to 164.4 bu/ac in 2009, and 171.0 bu/ac in 2014 (Figure 5). This “ray trend projection”
would give an ad‐hoc trend yield forecast of approximately of 173.1‐173.2 bu/ac in 2016, just below the
USDA’s 2016 forecast of 173.4 bu/ac on October 12th.
Figure 5. United States’ Corn Yield Trend for 1973‐2016 as of the October 12, 2016 USDA Crop Production and
WASDE reports
Two alternative probability‐weighted KSU projections for 2016 U.S. Corn Yields include…
a) a 25% probability of a 2016 U.S. corn yield of 172.5 bu/ac (0.9 bu/ac less than USDA)
b) a 5% probability of a 2016 U.S. corn yield of 171.0 bu/ac (equal to the previous 2014 record high)
For these alternative 2016 U.S. corn yield scenarios to occur, final U.S. harvested yields as reported by the
USDA during the November and January reports would need to decline markedly from current estimates.
129.3
160.3 …
September 5, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 4
I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
August 10th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On August 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its August 2017 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2016/17, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing years (MY) for
corn. The “new crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn begins on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31,
2018. Earlier, on June 30th, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) (https://www.nass.usda.gov/)
had released it’s Acreage (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/old crop/Acre/Acre‐06‐30‐2017.pdf) and Grain Stocks
(http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/old crop/GraiStoc/GraiStoc‐06‐30‐2017.pdf) reports. Planted and harvested acreage
estimates from the Acreage report were used by the USDA to develop the August 10th projection of 2017 U.S.
corn production in the Crop Production and WASDE reports.
The USDA used at combination of farmers surveys, actual on‐farm in‐field samples, and satellite the August
10, 2017 NASS Crop Production and WAOB World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) reports. The
upcoming September 12th, October 12th and November 9th USDA NASS Crop Production reports will also be
based on a similar combination of farmers’ own crop observations and actual in‐the‐field conditions – with a
final 2017 USDA NASS Crop Production Summary in January 2018.
CME DECEMBER 2017 & JULY 2018 Corn Futures Trends
DECEMBER 2017 CME Corn Futures
Following a low of $3.58 ½ on August 31, 2016, DECEMBER 2017 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn
futures prices trended higher over time to highs of $4.04 on February 28, 2017, $4.09 on June 8th, and $4.17 ¼
on July 11th (Figure 1). Following that high, DEC 2017 corn futures prices declined to a low of $3.75 on August
3rd, and $3.48 ¼ on August 31st ‐ before closing at $3.55 ¼ on Friday, September 1st.
JULY 2018 CME Corn Futures
In a similar trading pattern to DEC 2017 corn futures, following a low of $3.79 on August 31, 2016, JULY
2018 CME corn futures prices trended higher over time to highs of $4.18 ¾ on February 28, 2017, $4.26 ½ on
June 8th, and $4.34 ¼ on July 11th (Figure 1). Following that high, JULY 2018 corn futures prices declined to a
low of $3.98 on August 3rd, and $3.71 on August 31st ‐ before closing at $3.81 ¾ on Friday, September 1st.
CME Corn Futures DEC 2017 – JULY 2018 Contract Spreads
The total futures carrying charge or “term spread” between DEC 2017 and JULY 2018 corn futures on
Friday, September 1st was $0.26 ½ per bushel (i.e., $3.81 ¾ for JULY 2018 Corn less $3.55 ¼ for DEC 2017
Corn), or $0.03786 per bushel per month over a 7‐month period. This compares to commercial grain storage
charges in Kansas grain elevators in the range of $0.04 to $0.05 per bushel per month – before accounting for
interest, additional handling costs, or other discounts.
Page | 5
Figure 1. DEC 2017 & JULY 2018 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts (as of September 1, 2017)
ne …
September 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 3
I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
September 12th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On September 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its September 2017
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean
supply‐demand and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2016/17, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing
years (MY) for corn. The “new crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. soybeans began on September 1, 2017 and will last
through August 31, 2018. Earlier, on June 30th, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
(https://www.nass.usda.gov/) had released it’s Acreage (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/old crop/Acre/Acre‐06‐30‐2017.pdf) and
Grain Stocks (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/old crop/GraiStoc/GraiStoc‐06‐30‐2017.pdf) reports. Planted and harvested
acreage estimates from the June 30th Acreage report were used by the USDA to develop both the August 10th
and September 12th projections of 2017 U.S. soybean production in the Crop Production and WASDE reports.
The USDA used at combination of in field objective yield measurements and farmers surveys conducted
between August …
September 28, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
3.15%
U.S. Grain Sorghum Avg. Farm
Price ($/bushel)
$2.50‐$3.30
$2.90
U.S. Corn$ =
**$3.20/bu
$3.05
$3.00
$3.20
Page | 12
“crowded out” available supplies for bioenergy and other industrial production uses. This category includes
grain sorghum used for ethanol production under the designation of “alcohol”.
KSU projections of U.S. grain use for Food, Alcohol and Industrial Production in “new crop” MY 2017/18
range from 95 to 105 mb – similar to the USDA projection of 99 mb (Table 1a). This variation is in accord with
changes in available U.S. grain sorghum supply, with less supply leading to lower use and conversely.
Figure 5. Trends in U.S. Grain Sorghum Use & Ending Stocks: MY 2004/05 ‐ “New Crop” MY 2017/18
as of the September 12, 2017 USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports
Monthly U.S. Ethanol Production Use of Grain Sorghum: During the MY 2015/16 marketing year at least
133.6 mb of grain sorghum had been consumed for alcohol production in the United States, and possibly as
much as 141 mb (the USDA FAI estimate for grain sorghum from the December 9th WASDE report). This is
according to KSU estimates derived from the monthly USDA NASS Grain Crushings and Co‐Product Production
Report (https://www.nass.usda.gov/Surveys/Guide_to_NASS …
December 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 4
I. USDA Reports, Corn Futures, Seasonal Prices & U.S. Dollar
I‐a. December 12th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On December 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2017
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2016/17, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing years
(MY). The “new crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. corn began on September 1, 2017 and will last through August 31,
2018.
On the same day the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its December 2017
Crop Production report. However, the next survey‐based report of U.S. corn production results for 2017 will
be released in the USDA Annual Crop Production Summary and Crop Production reports on January 12, 2018.
The same corn plots which were sampled for the August, September, October, and November USDA NASS
Crop Production reports will revisited for the January 2018 report.
I‐b. CME MARCH & DECEMBER 2018 Corn Futures Trends
MARCH 2018 CME Corn Futures
Following a high of $4.26 on July 11, 2017, MARCH 2018 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures
prices trended downward over time to lows of $3.57 ¼ on August 31, 2017, $3.56 ¼ on October 12th, and $3.48
¾ on November 16‐17th, and then to $3.46 ½ on December 15, 18‐19, 2017 (Figure 1). MARCH 2018 corn
futures prices closed at $3.49 ¼ on December 20, 2017.
Figure 1. DEC 2017 & JULY 2018 CME Daily Corn Futures Price Charts (as of December 20, 2017) …
January 1, 2009
Animal ID & Traceability
Conducting a benefit‐cost analysis of NAIS adoption in the equine
industry was a significant challenge. Even published data on horse
population in the United States have a wide range of estimates including
from around five million to more than nine million horses. Collecting
accurate equine data is a challenge because a considerable number of
horse owners are not included in USDA surveys as many are not farm …
August 12, 2016
Breakout session presentations
The MYA price is based on a survey of elevators who report total … are not showing up in the survey as cash sales.
3. I used … yield because not enough surveys were returned by farmers.
2 …
December 15, 2017
to revenue per cow. Cull
cow weight can be adjusted.
Variable Costs
Pasture: State average estimate of a 10‐year linear trend using
NASS surveys for pasture rental rates.
Crop Residue … linear trend using
NASS surveys for pasture rental …
Variable Costs
Pasture: State average estimate of a 10‐year linear trend
using NASS surveys for pasture rental rates
Crop Residue …
December 1, 2003
Leasing Papers
and Presentations
For example, in a
1994 survey of producers belonging to … 1 More recent surveys (Golden, Tsoodle, and Bigge … 67%, respectively. These survey results
were based on a …
February 1, 1999
Land Rental
Rates
farming operations.
In a survey of producers
belonging to …