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October 1, 2019
2019 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
Oilseeds)
2
Grain Market Events to Come ….
1) 2019 U.S … Wheat
3
More Grain Market Events to Anticipate
3) Production … last 20-30%
• USDA to re-survey & for the November Crop Production …
September 16, 2019
KFMA Research
August 2018.
Feedback at this event suggested that acquiring … producers participated in this survey, which only supports the … summary of the
additional survey data is also provided and …
Summary Book - All Counties
through a variety of weather events. Dryland wheat
yields were … 87
Cow-Calf Management Survey …
Summary Book - All Counties
corn had several weather events throughout the year leading … 97
Cow-Calf Management Survey …
October 20, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
… The 10 state
objective yield survey was conducted on selected … ptember 30th Small Grains Summary report. The farmer operator survey was conducted by various means –
mail, internet, telephone, and grower reported data – during the first two weeks in September 2016.
CME Kansas Hard Red Winter Wheat DEC 2016 & JULY 2017 Futures
Following a low of $4.83 ½ per bushel on May 11, 2016, DECEMBER 2016 CME Kansas hard red
winter wheat futures prices traded up to a high of $5.35 ½ on June 8th. From that June 8th high, prices
fell $1.15 ½ per bushel to a low of $4.24 on July 5th. DECEMBER 2016 CME KS HRW Wheat futures
then traded in a sideways range during the July 6th through August 25th period – ranging from a high
of $4.58 (on 7/13/2016) to a low of $4.25 ¾ (on 7/22/2016) – before breaking out of this sideways
trading range on August 26th and falling first to a low of $3.95 per bushel on August 31st. Since then,
DEC 2016 CME KS HRW Wheat futures first trended higher to close at $4.25 ¾ on September 23rd,
then down to a low of $3.97 on October 12th, before trending back higher to $4.27 ½ per bushel on
Wednesday, October 19th before closing at $4.25 ¼ that same day (Figure 1).
JULY 2017 CME Kansas hard red winter wheat futures prices traded down to a low of $5.16 ½ per
bushel on May 11, 2016, and then trended higher up to $5.69 ¾ on June 8th. From that June 8th high,
prices fell $1.08 per bushel to a low of $4.61 ¾ on July 5th. Then JULY 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat
futures traded in a sideways range during the July 6th to the August 25th period – from a high of $4.94
(on 7/13/2016) to a low of $4.64 (on 7/22/2016) – before breaking out of this range on August 26th
falling to a low of $4.32 on August 31st. Since then, JULY 2016 CME KS HRW Wheat futures first
trended higher to close at $4.61 ¼ on September 23rd, then down to a low of $4.35 on October 12th,
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before trending back higher to $4.66 per bushel on Wednesday, October 19th before closing at $4.64
¾ that same day (Figure 1).
Figure 1. DECEMBER 2016 & JULY 2017 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts …
December 1, 1997
Section 2: Considering Cooperatives
the steps, the
sequence of events will vary according to the … gathering information and surveying the interests of potential … this step
may include a survey of producers to determine …
April 10, 2020
Recent Videos
23
Lots of variability 3/31 ‐ 4/9
Major COVID19 Events Equities
SP500 Close
Market Date … on Mar 23
Major COVID19 Events
Date 5‐Area Wtd Avg … Economics
https://
https://www.agmanager.info/livestock‐meat/meat‐demand/monthly‐meat‐demand‐monitor‐survey‐data
Agricultural Economic …
September 19, 2011
Macro and Global Economic Perspectives
and August 2011 Forecast Survey (Average)
WSJ
Forecast … of Labor and Statistics, Survey of Professional Forecasters … Unemployment Rate
9/11/2001
Event date
Forecasted
Unemployment …
September 19, 2011
Swine
and August 2011 Forecast Survey (Average)
WSJ
Forecast … of Labor and Statistics, Survey of Professional Forecasters … Unemployment Rate
9/11/2001
Event date
Forecasted
Unemployment …
March 25, 2019
Grain Market Outlook
… dering World wheat ending stocks adjusted for Chinese reserves (i.e., “World‐Less‐China”)
provides a much tighter picture of “accessible” or “available” World wheat supply‐demand balances
than the aggregate “World” measure. “World‐Less‐China” wheat carryover ending stocks are
calculated to be 130.53 mmt in “current” MY 2018/19 – down from 148.35 mmt in “old crop” MY
2017/18. These figures compare to World ending stocks of 270.61 mmt in “current” MY 2018/19,
and 249.61 mmt in “old crop” MY 2017/18 (Figure 15ab).
“World‐Less‐China” percent (%) ending stocks‐to‐use are estimated to be and 11 year low of
21.15% in “current” MY 2018/19 – down from 23.80% in “old crop” MY 2017/18. This compares to
aggregate World Stocks‐to‐Use of 36.45% in “current” MY 2017/18, and 37.56% in “old crop” MY
20017/18.
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This “tightness” in “World‐Less‐China” wheat stocks along with tighter exportable supplies in the
European Union and the Black Sea region appear to have provided quiet support to World wheat
market prices, but has not as of yet caused any major rallies.
G. 2019 U.S. Winter Wheat Conditions
Prospects for the 2019 U.S. winter wheat crop are mostly “Fair to Good” at this time in the
southern and central plains region of the country. Reports from the USDA National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS) in Kansas for the week ending March 17, 2019 indicated that a survey of
observers in the state of winter wheat acreage rated the crop as 5% “excellent”, 44% “good”, 40%
“fair”, 8% “poor”, and 3% “very poor”. In Oklahoma, the HRW wheat crop was rated as 5%
“excellent”, 55% “good”, 35% “fair”, 5% “poor”, and 0% “very poor”. Similarly, in Texas, the HRW
wheat crop was rated as 6% “excellent”, 27% “good”, 44% “fair”, 17% “poor”, and 6% “very poor”.
As the 2019 hard red winter wheat crop breaks dormancy and begins spring growth in late March‐
early April, the condition in which the crop survived somewhat challenging winter conditions will
become apparent. The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Production
reports first and preliminarily on April 9th, and then especially as the crop is more developed on May
10th, June 11th and July 11th will provide more substantiated information on 2019 U.S. HRW Wheat
production prospects.
H. U.S. Wheat Exports
Export shipments of U.S. wheat have been running behind the pace needed to meet USDA export
projections for U.S. Wheat overall, and for Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat in particular. According to
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) data, through March 14th forward sales of U.S. exports are
still on track to meet USDA forecasts of 965 million bushels (mb) in the “current” 2018/19 marketing
year (MY) – ending on May 31, 2019 (Tables 1‐1a, Figures 9ab‐10ab).
Total shipments to date plus forward sales are projected to have reached 88.1% (850.4 mb) of the
USDA’s forecast on March 14th with 78.8% of the marketing year completed (i.e., 41/52 weeks).
However, actual physical shipments to date of 638.4 mb amount to only 66.1% of the USDA forecast,
with a shipment rate of 29.7 mb per week needed through the end of “current” MY 2018/19 to meet
the USDA target of 965 mb. For the weeks of March 7th and 14th, U.S. Wheat shipments of 27.3 mb
and 13.1 mb were behind the weekly average of 29.7 mb needed to meet the USDA’s projections by
May 31, 2019. Shipments of U.S. HRW Wheat are in a similar situation, as strong weekly shipments
are still needed through August 31st to attain the USDA U.S. export projection of 320 mb in “current”
MY 2018/19.
I. U.S. Wheat Supply‐Demand & Prices
The USDA released their wheat production, supply‐demand, and price projections for the U.S. for
“current” MY 2018/19 in the March 8th WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
report) (Tables 1‐1a). The USDA also released its preliminary projections for the “new crop” MY
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2019/20 at it’s February 22nd Agricultural Outlook Conference (Table 1a). The “new crop” 2019/18
marketing year for wheat represents the June 1, 2019 through March 31, 2020 period. These
preliminary forecasts indicate USDA’s expectations of 1%‐2% lower planted acreage in 2019,
approximately 1% higher production and total use in “new crop” MY 2019/20, and marginally higher
prices.
U.S. Wheat Acreage
U.S. wheat plantings are forecast to be 47.000 million acres (ma) in 2019, down 1.67% from
47.800 million acres (ma) in 2018, up from the record low of 46.052 ma in 2017, but down from
50.119 ma in 2016 (Tables 1‐1a, Figures 5‐6). Harvested acres are forecast at 39.800 ma in 2019
(84.68% harvested‐to‐planted). This amount of harvested acres is projected to be up 0.5% from
39.605 ma in 2018 (82.86% harvested‐to‐planted), and the record low of 37.555 ma (81.55%
harvested‐to‐planted) in 2017, but still down from 43.848 ma in 2016 (87.49% harvested‐to‐planted)
(Tables 1a‐b, Figure 6). The 2019 U.S. average wheat yield is forecast to be 47.8 bu/ac, up from 47.6
bu/ac in 2018, and 46.4 bu/ac in 2017, but down from the 2016 record high of 52.7 bu/acre (Tables
1a‐b, Figure 7).
The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report will be released by the USDA on Friday, March 29, 2019.
Average pre‐report projections of U.S. total wheat for 2019 seedings total 46.9 million acres (ma),
with estimates ranging from 45.9 to 48.0 ma. Preliminary estimates of 2019 winter wheat seedings
(average = 31.5 ma, 30.6 – 32.5 ma range), spring wheat (average = 13.4 ma, 12.3 – 13.9 ma range),
and durum acreage (average 2.0 ma, 1.6 – 2.3 ma range).
In its Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report on January, 11, 2019, the USDA projected that
31,290,000 acres of Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat were seeded in the U.S. in fall 2018 – down from
32,535,000 acres in fall 2017, and 32,726,000 acres in fall 2016 (Figure 6). The upcoming March 29th
Prospective Plantings report will provide more information on HRW wheat seedings, as well as for
soft red winter (SRW), hard red spring (HRS) wheat, and white wheat (WW) varieties.
U.S. Wheat Production & Total Supplies
Wheat production in the U.S. in 2019 is forecast to be 1.902 billion bushels (bb), up from 1.884 bb
in 2018, and up from 1.741 bb in 2017, but down from 2.309 bb in 2016 (Tables 1a‐b, Figure 8).
Projected “new crop” MY 2019/20 total supplies are forecast to be 3.097 bb, down from forecast
“current” MY 2018/19 total supplies of 3.128 bb, and up from 3.079 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18.
However, 3.097 bb in U.S. total wheat supplies in “new crop” MY 2019/20 would be down from 3.402
bb in MY 2016/17.
U.S. Wheat Total Use
U.S. Wheat total use is projected to by 2.108 bb in “new crop” MY 2019/20, up from a projection
of 2.073 bb in “current” MY 2018/19, and from 1.980 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, but down from
2.222 bb in MY 2016/17 (Tables 1a‐b, Figures 9a‐b).
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U.S. Exports
In “new crop” MY 2019/20, U.S. wheat exports are forecast to be 975 million bushels (bu), up
from 965 mb in “current” MY 2018/19, and up from 901 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, while being
down from 1.051 bb in MY 2016/17 (Tables 1‐1a, Figures 9a‐b, & 10a).
CommentaryKSU: U.S. wheat exports fell to 47‐year lows of 778 mb and 864 mb in MY 2015/16
and MY 2014/15, respectively, down to levels just marginally above those pre‐“Russian Grain Deal”
levels in 1972. This is more evidence of the only marginally competitive position that U.S. wheat
exports find themselves in among foreign export competitors in recent years.
U.S. Food Use
Food Use of U.S. wheat is projected to be 980 million bushels (mb) in “new crop” MY 2019/20, up
marginally from 965 mb in “current” MY 2018/19, from 964 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, and 949
mb in MY 2016/17 (Table 1‐1a, Figure 9ab).
U.S. Feed & Residual Use
Feed & Residual Use of U.S. wheat is projected to be 90 mb in “new crop” MY 2019/20, up from
80 mb in “current” MY 2018/19, up from 51 mb in “old crop” MY 2017/18, but less than 160 mb in
MY 2016/17 (Table 1‐1a, Figure 9ab).
CommentaryKSU: With the USDA’s forecast of moderately tighter U.S. corn and total feedgrain
supplies along with moderate support for feedgrain prices, they are anticipating that feeding wheat to
livestock will become more marginally more economical in “new crop” MY 2019/20 than in the current
marking year.
U.S. Ending Stocks & % Stocks‐to‐Use
With an adjustment by KSU for new WASDE report information, USDA projected “new crop” MY
2019/20 ending stocks to be 989 mb (46.92% S/U). This projection is down from “current” MY
2018/19 ending stocks of 1.055 bb (50.89% S/U), both of which are down from 1.099 bb in “old crop”
MY 2017/18 (55.50% S/U), and from 1.181 bb in MY 2016/17 (53.14% stocks/use) (Tables 1‐1a,
Figures 11 & 12).
CommentaryKSU: This projection of 989 mb in U.S. wheat ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2019/20
is the lowest in four (4) years – since 976 mb (49.99% stocks/use) in MY 2015/16. However, it remains
that until either a major wheat production shortfall or what could be an “anticipated” surge in U.S.
wheat exports occurs, the U.S. will likely remain in the current “large supply – large ending stocks”
situation.
U.S. Wheat Prices
United States’ wheat prices are projected to be $5.20 /bu in “new crop” MY 2019/20, up from the
midpoint of $5.15 /bu in the range of $5.10‐$5.20 /bu in “current” MY 2018/19. This would be up
from $4.72 /bu in “old crop” MY 2017/18, from $3.89 in MY 2016/17, and $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16,
but still down from $5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15 (Tables 1‐1a, Figures 11 & 12).
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J. “Alt” KSU Scenario for U.S. Wheat S/D in “New Crop” MY 2019/20
To represent possible alternative outcomes from the USDA’s March 8th WASDE and February 22nd
Agricultural Profitability Conference projections. One potential KSU‐Scenario for U.S. wheat supply‐
demand and prices is presented in comparison to the USDA forecast for “new crop” MY 2019/20
(Tables 1‐1a & Figure 11).
USDA Scenario (50% probability): This scenario assumes:
2019 U.S. Planted Acres …