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September 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
n of 2017 U.S. soybean plantings of a record high 89.513
million acres (ma) – up from 83.433 ma in 2016. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of a record 88.731 ma is also
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up from 82.736 ma in 2016. With near record high projected yields of 49.9 bu/ac (up 0.5 bu from August),
2017 U.S. soybean production is projected to be a record high 4.431 bb – up from 4.307 bb in 2016 (2nd
highest) and from 3.926 bb in 2014. With forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 domestic crush at a record 1.940
bb and exports forecast to be a record 2.250 bb (up 25 mb), projected U.S. total soybean use is a record 4.326
bb – up from 4.183 bb in “old crop” MY 2016/17 and from 3.944 bb in the previous marketing year.
Given …
December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
ections to 2026, in which they projected 2017 U.S.
wheat plantings of 48.500 million acres (ma) – down from 50.154 ma in 2015. The USDA also forecast 2016
harvested acres of 41.100 ma which would be down from 43.890 ma a year ago. Trendline 2017 wheat yields
for 2017 are projected at 47.1 bu/a, down from the 2016 record of 52.6 bu/ac, while 2017 U.S. wheat
production is forecast to be 1.936 billion bushels (bb), down from 2.310 bb in 2015. Projected “next crop” MY
2017/18 total supplies are 3.199 bb (down from 3.410 bb in “current” MY 2016/17), with total use of 2.206 bb
(down from 2.267 bb in “current” MY 2016/17).
Given these numbers, the USDA projected “next crop” MY 2017/18 ending stocks of 933 million bushels (mb)
(vs 1.143 bb a year ago), with percent ending stocks‐to‐use of 45.0% S/U (vs 50.4% last year and 50.0% the
previous year). United States wheat average prices are projected to average $4.00 /bu – up from $3.70 in
“current” MY 2016/17, but down from $4.89 /bu in MY 2015/16 and $5.99 /bu in MY 2014/15. It is assumed
by Kansas State University that these USDA projections for “next crop” MY 2016/17 have a 50% probability of
occurring.
Three Alternative KSU U.S. Wheat S/D Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: As an alternative to the USDA’s
projection, three potential KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. wheat supply‐demand and prices are presented for “next
crop” MY 2017/18. These scenarios assume lower 2017 U.S. planted (47.624 ma) and harvested (38.385 ma)
wheat acres than the USDA – due to larger than normal amounts of “graze out” and “crop switching” in 2017.
KSU Scenario 1) “Lower Acres, Trend Yield” Scenario (30% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY 2017/18:
47.624 ma planted, 38.385 ma harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.804 bb production, 3.067 bb total supplies,
960 mb exports, 200 mb feed & residual use, 2.191 bb total use, 876 mb ending stocks, 39.98% S/U, & $4.00‐
$4.50 /bu U.S. wheat average price;
KSU Scenario 2) “Lower Acres, Trend Yield, +20% Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes for “next crop”
MY 2017/18: 47.624 ma planted, 38.385 ma harvested, 47.0 bu/ac trend yield, 1.804 bb production, 3.067 bb
total supplies, 1.152 bb exports***, 200 mb feed & residual use, 2.383 bb total use, 684 mb ending stocks,
24.10% S/U, & $5.25‐$5.75 /bu U.S. wheat average price;
KSU Scenario 3) “Lower Acres, Short Crop Yield” Scenario (10% probability) assumes for “next crop” MY
2017/18: 47.624 ma planted, 38.385 ma harvested, 43.6 bu/ac low yield***, 1.674 bb production, 2.937 bb
total supplies, 925 mb exports, 200 mb feed & residual use, 2.156 bb total use, 781 mb ending stocks, 36.22%
S/U, & $4.40‐$4.90 /bu U.S. wheat average price.
…
March 14, 2013
Macro and Global Economic Perspectives
5,689
Number of Trading Days After Event
DJIA During and After Great … too few goods.
Quantity Theory of Money
So, for rapid price inflation:
3/4/2013
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PCE Price Index (Headline)
PCE Price Index Excluding Food and Energy (Core)
Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index
Percent change from previous year
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Today’s inflation is well below 1970s levels…
10‐year Inflation Expectations
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
…and inflation expectations are very low.
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3/4/2013
9
Why is inflation low? Velocity has plummeted.
• …
November 11, 2013
Marketing Publications
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August 1, 2017
Breakout Sessions
27
Data
Definition of Farm Exit
Previous literature defined a farm … duration of time, until an
event of interest happen
1) Kaplan-Meier …
September 3, 2017
Section 5: Long-Range Planning (FINLRB)
2016
http://www.agmanager.info/events/risk‐and‐profit‐
conferenceprevious‐conference‐proceedings/2016‐risk‐and‐profit‐
conference
Tax Implications of Farm Financial
Planning Decisions
10/6/2017
2
Income Tax Basics
• …
December 16, 2020
Fill taxable income unused in brackets for the previous 3 years
Does not affect SE tax
… Major business and life events
Kansas Farm Management AssociationBuilding …
June 23, 2021
Use in Government Testimony
www.ageconomics.ksu.edu 3 | P a g e
plant event of 2019 and developments … are further discussed in previous reports provided to USDA …
January 24, 2025
2018 Farm Bill
decision in 2025 compared to previous years is higher reference … at higher
prices in the event of yield losses at the county …
February 24, 2025
Prices and Price Forecasts
lower than the end of the previous year. However,
the lowest … higher.
Discussion
There are many events happening right now in the …