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April 17, 2024
Hog Pricing
interviews and an online survey, capture industry perspectives … USDA AMS Livestock Market News MPR Data Mart)
During … USDA AMS Livestock Market News MPR Data Mart)
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October 1, 2019
2019 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
last 20-30%
• USDA to re-survey & for the November Crop Production … recent positive negotiation news
B. U.S. Exports forecast …
October 22, 2019
Grain Marketing Presentations
last 20-30%
• USDA to re-survey & for the November Crop Production … Wheat: “Positive Export news for Asia Markets”
o End … recent positive negotiation news
B. U.S. Exports forecast …
October 1, 2019
2019 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
last 20-30%
• USDA to re-survey & for the November Crop Production … Wheat: “Positive Export news for Asia Markets”
o End … recent positive negotiation news
B. U.S. Exports forecast …
June 20, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 3
I. U.S. Corn Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. June 10th WASDE & March 31st Prospective Plantings & Stocks Reports
On June 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its June 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World corn supply‐demand
and price projections for the 2014/15, “current” 2015/16, and “new crop” 2016/17 marketing years. The
“current” 2015/16 marketing year for U.S. corn began on 9/1/2015 and will last through 8/31/2016, with “new
crop” MY 2016/17 beginning 9/1/2016 and lasting through 8/31/2017.
Prior to the April 12th, May 10th, and June 10th USDA WASDE reports, on March 31st the USDA National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its 2016 Prospective Plantings and March 1st Quarterly Grain
Stocks reports. Information from the 2016 Prospective Plantings report has been used by the USDA as the
base estimate for the USDA’s 2016 U.S. corn planted acreage forecast in the June 10th WASDE report.
However, more current farmer survey‐based information on 201 …
March 7, 2025
https://agmanager.info/livestock-meat/marketing-extension-bulletins/trade-
and-demand/assessing-economic-impact-would-follow
60
Monthly surveys & experiments > 2,000 U.S … https://www.agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand/
monthly-meat-demand-monitor-survey-data
https://www.agmanager …
December 24, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
s has been due largely to Chinese
import restrictions for particular varieties of GMO corn from the U.S. – and China’s willingness to substitute
grain sorghum imports to fulfill their domestic livestock feed needs. With recent news that China may be
softe … … gh
November 5th period. The next major survey based USDA report addressing U.S. crop production for grain
sorghum, corn and other feedgrains, wheat, soybeans and other major crops will be the USDA Annual Crop
Production Summary report to be released on Monday, January 12, 2015. On that same day USDA NASS will
also release the January 2015 Crop Production, December Grain Stocks, and Winter Wheat Seedings reports.
Also on December 10th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2014
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. grain sorghum and World
coarse grain supply‐demand projections for both the 2013/14 as well as for “current crop” 2014/15 marketing
years. The 2013/14 marketing year ended on August 31, 2014, while the “current crop” 2014/15 U.S. grain
sorghum marketing year began on September 1, 2014 and will last through August 31, 2015.
I‐B. CME Corn Futures Trends for the October‐December 2014 Period
Local cash grain sorghum prices are determined by local basis adjustments relative to corn futures
contracts. In this section, recent trends in Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) corn futures prices are
examined – given their relevance to cash grain sorghum prices in the U.S. and elsewhere.
Since the beginning of October 2014 corn futures prices have been generally trending higher – indicating at
the low trading price of $3.18 ¼ for the DECEMBER 2014 corn futures contract were indeed the fall harvest
low (i.e., unless March 2015 CME corn futures prices drop sharply before the end of this month). The
DECEMBER 2014 corn futures contract “went off the board” at $3.96 ¼ on December 12, 2014, closing up
$0.78 per bushel or 24.3% from the October 1st contract low.
A time of seasonal market weakness for U.S. feedgrain prices has typically occurred during the months of
January‐February in large crop – low price years. Therefore it is still possible that prices may trend lower again
sometime before spring, 2015. However, the $3.18 ¼ low attained by the CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract
on October 1st could be a key point of support for CME MARCH 2015 corn futures prices should such a seasonal
price decline occur in coming months.
The “current crop” MARCH 2015 corn futures market contract initially responded in a neutral‐to‐negative
manner to the information in the December 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended higher. On the day
of the report – Wednesday, December 10th – Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) MARCH 2015 corn futures
prices opened at $3.94 ¼ per bushel, and traded in a range of $3.89 ¼ ‐ $3.98 ¼ during the session, before
Page | 3
settling at $3.93 ¾ – down $0.01 ½ for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at
approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then, MAR 2015
has traded from a low of $3.92 ¼ on Thursday, December 11th to a high of $4.14 ¼ on Monday, December 22nd
before closing at $4.11 ¾ on that same day.
The CME MARCH 2015 corn contract is now the “lead” corn futures contract, representing current grain
market price prospects through mid‐March 2015 – being the futures contract which local basis adjustments
are made off of for current cash grain sorghum and corn price bids are made off of in North American grain
markets.
The “next crop” DECEMBER 2015 corn futures market contract also initially responded in a neutral‐to‐
negative manner to the information in the December 10th USDA reports, but since then has trended higher.
On the day of the report CME DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices opened at $4.22 ¼ per bushel, trading
within the range of $4.16 ¾ ‐ $4.25 ¾ during the session, before settling at $4.21 – down $0.02 ½ per bushel
for the day (Figure 1). Since then, DECEMBER 2015 corn futures prices have traded in a range from a low of
$4.19 ½ on Thursday, December 11th to a high of $4.37 ¾ on Monday, December 22nd before closing at $4.34
¾ on that same day.
The CME DECEMBER 2015 corn contract is now the “next crop” corn futures contract, representing grain
market price prospects for the mid‐October through mid‐December 2015 time period. DEC 2015 is the futures
contract which local basis adjustments are made off of for “fall harvest 2015” grain sorghum and corn forward
contract price bids are made off of in North American grain markets.
Figure 1. MARCH 2015 and DECEMBER 2015 CME Corn Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
September 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
soybean use (up 6.1% per
year). “Old crop” MY 2016/17 World production is estimated to have been a record high of 351.4 mmt,
followed by a projection of near record World production of 348.4 mmt in “new crop” MY 2017/18. In what is
exceedingly good news for the World soybean market, total use has also increased along with production, to
329.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and to a projected record high of 344.3 mmt in “new crop” MY 2017/18.
The degree of “abundance” or “large quantities” in World soybean ending stocks have been a key issue
leading to current “moderate‐to‐low” soybean prices in World markets relative to recent years. Since World
soybean ending stocks of 61.5 mmt (22.3% ending stocks‐to‐use or ‘S/U’) in MY 2013/14, soybean stocks grew
sharply to 77.5 mmt (25.6% S/U) in MY 2014/15 and 77.7 mmt (24.7% S/U). Then in “old crop” MY 2016/17
World ending stocks are estimated to have increased to a record level of 96.0 mmt (29.1% S/U), followed by a
further increase to 97.5 mmt (28.3% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18.
A key World soybean market strategy will be to wait to figure out whether dry conditions or some other
crop production malady will occur in late 2017 or early 2018 in South America that could limit 2018 soybean
production in the southern hemisphere. Although World soybean demand growth has been as strong as can
be expected, it seems that a “supply shock” or “crop shortfall” in 2018 or following years would be the most
likely factor to drive World soybean production and supply‐demand balances low enough to alter the existing
“large supply – buyer’s market” situation. With prospects now pointing toward a near record 2017 U.S.
soybean crop, World markets will turn their attention toward 2018 South American production prospects as
the next major source of soybean market risk – providing the possibility of a change in paradigm and higher
soybean prices in the next 12‐18 months.
3. USDA Corn Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
The USDA made no adjustments in its projection of 2017 U.S. soybean plantings of a record high 89.513
million acres (ma) – up from 83.433 ma in 2016. Forecast 2016 harvested acres of a record 88.731 ma is also
Page | 2
up from 82.736 ma in 2016. With near record high projected yields of 49.9 bu/ac (up 0.5 bu from August),
2017 U.S. soybean production is projected to be a record high 4.431 bb – up from 4.307 bb in 2016 (2nd
highest) and from 3.926 bb in 2014. With forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 domestic crush at a record 1.940
bb and exports forecast to be a record 2.250 bb (up 25 mb), projected U.S. total soybean use is a record 4.326
bb – up from 4.183 bb in “old crop” MY 2016/17 and from 3.944 bb in the previous marketing year.
Given these results, “new crop” MY 2017/18 U.S. soybean ending stocks are forecast to be an 11 year high
of 475 mb (10.98% S/U), while U.S. soybean prices are forecast to be in the range of $8.35‐$10.05 (midpoint =
$9.20 /bu). This U.S. soybean price forecast is down from $9.50 in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from $8.95
the year before. This USDA projection scenario is thought to have a 60% probability of occurring in the
judgment of Kansas State University Extension.
4. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. soybean supply‐demand and prices to the USDA projection are
presented for “new crop” MY 2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood that exists of higher U.S.
soybean acreage, lower yields and lower production, and higher prices than projected by the USDA in the
September 12, 2017 WASDE report.
A ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Lower Yield” Scenario #1) “48.0 bu/ac – 4.278 bb” Scenario (30%
probability) assumes: 89.901 ma planted, 89.116 ma harvested, 48.0 bu/ac yield, 4.278 bb production,
4.648 bb total supplies, 4.226 bb total use, 422 mb ending stocks, 9.99% S/U, & $9.70 /bu U.S. average
soybean price;
B ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Very Low Yield” Scenario #2) “45.85 bu/ac – 4.085 bb” Scenario (5%
probability) assumes: 89.901 ma planted, 89.116 ma harvested, 45.85 bu/ac yield, 4.085 bb production,
4.455 bb total supplies, 4.106 bb total use, 349 mb ending stocks, 8.50% S/U, & $10.20 /bu U.S. average
soybean price;
C ‐ KSU “New Crop” MY 2017/18 “Wildcard World Event” Scenario #3) “48.0 bu/ac – 4.278 bb” Scenario (5%
probability) assumes: 89.901 ma planted, 89.116 ma harvested, 48.0 bu/ac yield, 4.278 bb production,
4.648 bb total supplies, 3.861 bb total use, 787 mb ending stocks, 20.38% S/U, & $7.00 /bu U.S. average
soybean price;
Note: The presence of large beginning stocks of 345 mb in “new crop” MY 2017/18 limit the “tightness” of
supply‐demand balances along with prospects for a record large 2017 U.S. soybean crop of 4.431 bb (USDA).
Prospects for such large supplies of soybeans hinders any upward price responses in the KSU Scenarios A, B and
C above.
…
April 1, 2010
Pork Quality Grading System and Wholesale Pork Price Reporting
representative current AMS market news reports
are of actual wholesale … infor-
mation gathered from industry surveys and in-depth
interviews …
April 1, 2010
representative current AMS market news reports
are of actual wholesale … infor-
mation gathered from industry surveys and in-depth
interviews …