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September 1, 2025
2025 Ag Lenders Conference Presentations
and October 1st, 2025
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2008
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2009
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2009
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2010
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2010
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2011
:Q1
2011
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2012
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2012
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2013
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2014
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2015
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2016
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2017
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2018
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2020
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2026
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Real GDP Percent Change from Preceding Quarter
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Wall Street Journal (WSJ) April 2025 Forecast Survey (Average)
WSJForecast(Apr)
U.S. economic growth shot up to 3% in 2025 Q2…
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
…but the growth was driven by a sharp reduction in imports.
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4.0%
6.0%
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10.0%
Q2 …
June 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
ame degree as occurred a year ago.
In conclusion, U.S. soybean prices thus far in 2014 have been supported by continued Chinese export
demand and at least some uncertainty to date regarding 2014 crop production prospects in the United States.
Price weakness or at least “moderation” in soybean prices is likely to occur in the late spring‐summer of 2014
IF what is shaping up to be a record high 2014 South American soybean crop is moved into export channels in a
timely‐efficient manner, and if prospects develop through the summer months for a large 2014 U.S. soybean
crop to be produced.
I‐B. June 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “New Crop” MY 2014/15
On June 11, 2014 the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its June 2014 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐
demand and price projections for both the “current” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” MY
2014/15. The “current” 2013/14 marketing year will end on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15
U.S. wheat marketing year will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.
Page | 3
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will release its 2014 Acreage and June Quarterly
Stocks reports on Friday, June 30. The 2014 Acreage report will provide a survey‐based update of 2014
planted and harvested acreage of U.S. soybeans and other crops. The June Quarterly Stocks report will
provide information on the pace of U.S. soybean usage during the March‐April‐May 2014 quarter, and on the
levels of U.S. soybean stocks on June 1, 2014, and allow for better accuracy in projecting U.S. soybean
“current” MY 2013/14 ending stocks on August 31, 2014.
I‐C. Soybean Futures Trends Since the June 11th USDA Reports
The “current crop” JULY 2014 soybean futures market contract responded in a volatile and ultimately
positive manner to the information in the July 11th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Wednesday, June
11th – Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) JULY 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $14.61 ¾ per bushel, and
traded as high as $14.66 ½ and as low as $14.44 ½ during the session, before settling at $14.45 ½ – down $0.17
for the day (Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e.,
12:00 noon eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then JULY 2014 soybean futures prices have
traded generally lower – from a high of $14.52 ¾ on June 12th, to a low of $13.93 ½ on Wednesday, June 18th
before closing at $14.09 on the same day. Prior to the June 11th report, JULY 2014 soybean futures had
trended sharply higher from lows in the range of $12.34 ‐ $12.34 ¾ on January 8, 24 and 30, 2014 to highs of
$15.21 on April 17th and $15.20 ½ on April 29th, and then to a “higher high” of $15.36 ¾ on May 22, before
trending lower through late May and early‐mid June.
Figure 1. July 2014 and November 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
July 7, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
USDA June 30th Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Implications
Daniel M. O’Brien, Extension Agricultural Economist – Kansas State University
July 4, 2014
Summary
On June 30th the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its Acreage and Grain Stocks
reports. The 2014 Acreage report provided the second actual survey‐based information by the USDA on U.S.
farmer’s cropping intentions for 2014, following the March 31st Prospective Plantings report. The Quarterly
June 1st 2014 Grain Stocks report provided grain markets with improved information on the pace of usage of
U.S. corn, grain sorghum, wheat, soybeans, and other major crops in their respective 2013/14 marketing years.
As a result of these June 30th USDA reports, adjustments are likely occur to in the upcoming July 11th USDA
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – particularly for “new crop” 2014/15
marketing year U.S. soybean and grain sorghum supply‐demand balances and prices.
The Acreage report projected 2014 U.S. corn planted acreage to be 91.641 million acres (ma), down marginally
from pre‐report trade expectations, and down from 95.365 ma in 2013, and the record high of 97.155 ma in
2012. Forecast harvested acres of corn in 2014 of 83.839 ma were down from 87.375 – 87.668 ma the
previous two years. Planted acres of soybeans in 2014 were forecast to be a record high 84.839 ma, above the
top end of the pre‐report average trade estimates, and up from 76.533 ma in 2013 and 77.198 ma in 2012.
Expected 2014 plantings of other spring wheat of 12.709 ma were also above the top end of the pre‐report
trade estimates, and up from 11.596 ma in 2013, and 12.289 ma in 2012. Projected planted acres of grain
sorghum in 2014 are 7.471 ma, up 790,000 acres from the 3/31 Prospective Plantings estimate, but down
from 8.061 ma in 2013, while up from 6.244 ma in 2012. Harvested acres of grain sorghum in 2014 of 6.399
ma are projected to be down from 6.530 ma in 2013, but up from 6.244 ma in 2012.
The Quarterly Grain Stocks report estimated that U.S. corn stocks on June 1st were 3.854 billion bushels (bb),
up from 2.766 bb a year ago. Corn use during March‐May 2014 was 3.154 bb, up from 2.634 bb in Mar‐May
2013 and 2.886 bb in Mar‐May 2012. Projected U.S. soybean stocks on June 1st were 405 mb, down from 435
mb a year ago. Soybean use during March‐May 2014 was 589 mb, up from 563 mb in Mar‐May 2013, but
down from 712 mb in Mar‐May 2012. Projected U.S. wheat stocks on June 1st were 590 mb, down from 718
mb a year ago. Wheat use during March‐May 2014 was 467 mb, down from 517 mb in Mar‐May 2013, and
down from 486 mb in Mar‐May 2012. Projected U.S. grain sorghum stocks on June 1st were 92 mb, up from 42
mb a year ago. Grain sorghum use during March‐May 2014 was 83 mb, up from 50 mb in Mar‐May 2013, and
from 50 mb in Mar‐May 2012.
As a result of these reports, KSU supply‐demand balance and price forecasts for “new crop” MY 2014/15 were
adjusted from early June projections. The U.S. 2014 corn production forecast was lowered slightly due to
lower planted acreage, while higher planted acreage for soybeans, grain sorghum, and wheat led to higher
2014 crop production forecasts. For U.S. corn prices, the KSU “new crop” 2014/15 marketing year “likely”
scenario was lowered $0.20 to $4.20 per bu from a month ago. The “likely” KSU soybean price forecast
outcome in “new crop” MY 2014/15 was lowered $0.75 to $9.25 per bu. For U.S. wheat prices, the KSU “new
crop” 2014/15 marketing year “likely” scenario outcome was lowered $0.95 down to $6.55 per bu from a
month ago.
Barring unforeseen major crop production problems in the U.S., South America, the Black Sea region, China,
Australia, or other major grain importing and/or exporting regions of the World, grain and oilseed prices are
likely to continue to move lower into fall 2014 until or unless either a) lower prices of grains encourage
demand, b) weather problems and associated crop production losses occur among the World’s major grain
producing or using countries, or c) international geopolitical conflicts support grain markets.
2 | P …
May 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
2012/13. Forecast total MY 2014/15 soybean production for major export
competitors Brazil (91.0 mmt – up 3.5 mmt) and Argentina (54.0 mmt) is projected to be 7.6% higher in the
coming year – with harvests available for use in the early months of 2015 to compete with the U.S. in World
grain export markets. However, these projections are still uncertain given the possibility of a strong El Nino
event beginning in mid‐2014 which could affect both U.S. and South American crop prospects in 2014/2015.
Page | 2
I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
I‐A. May 2014 USDA Reports & Projections for “New Crop” MY 2014/15
On May 9, 2014 the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) released its monthly Crop
Production report. The May 2014 USDA Crop Production report provided the USDA’s initial survey‐based
projections of planted and harvested acreage, yields, and production for the 2014 U.S. soybean crop. Also on
May 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2014 World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐demand and price
projections for both the “current” 2013/14 marketing year as well as for “new crop” 2014/15. The “current”
2013/14 marketing year will end on August 31, 2014, while the “new crop” 2014/15 U.S. corn marketing year
will last from September 1, 2014 through August 31, 2015.
I‐B. Corn Futures Trends Since the May 9th USDA Reports
The “current crop” JULY 2014 soybean futures market contract responded in a volatile and ultimately
positive manner to the information in the May 9th USDA reports. On the day of the report – Friday, May 9th –
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) JULY 2014 soybean futures prices opened at $14.67 ¼ per bushel, and traded
as high as $14.91 ½ and as low as $14.53 during the session, before settling at $14.87 – up $0.17 ½ for the day
(Figure 1). The USDA report findings were publicly released at approximately mid‐session, i.e., 12:00 noon
eastern time (11:00 a.m. central) that day. Since then JULY 2014 soybean futures prices have traded generally
sideways within a trading range – from a high of $14.96 on May 12th, to a low of $14.60 ½ on May 13th before
closing at $14.65 on Monday, May 16th. Prior to the May 9th report, JULY 2014 soybean futures had trend
sharply higher from lows in the range of $12.34 ‐ $12.34 ¾ on January 8, 24 and 30, 2014 to highs of $15.21 on
April 17th and $15.20 ½ on April 29th prior to moving generally lower to the May 19th close of $14.85 ¼.
Figure 1. July 2014 and November 2014 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
December 30, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Page | 3
I. U.S. Wheat Market Situation & Outlook
December 9th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On December 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2016 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2014/15, 2015/16, and “new crop” 2016/17 marketing years (MY) for
wheat. “Current Crop” MY 2016/17 for U.S. wheat began on 6/1/2016 and will last through 5/31/2017. The
USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) also released its December Crop Production report on
the same day. However, the December NASS Crop Production report was not survey‐based, but instead
carr …
Breakout Sessions
And where might they go???
Sources of Land Price Data
• USDA surveys – summary of producer
opinions of the value
• … Can use calculations like P/E ratios to see if
prices are out of line relative to earnings
USDA Prices, Sales Prices, and
Calculated Prices
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Price calculated
with 2013 rate,
and 2014
projected
income level
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Land Price Sales Data/Earnings Ratio Survey of Appraisers
• Base their opinions of value on sales in the
area
• …
August 23, 2013
Forward‐22 willing to pay
~25,000 respondents
10 Years Forward
Demand Expert Survey
‐159 experts
Steak & Gr … Steak & Ground Beef
Consumer Survey
‐975 respondents975 respondents
Steak & Ground Beef
Ranked Priorities
1 …
March 15, 2017
Land Rental
Rates
http://www.agmanager.info/farmmgt/land/lease). Also presented are the survey-based rental rates
for 2016 … not reported in the NASS survey data.
Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics (Publication: AM‐MRT‐LT‐2017.1) …
December 7, 2017
KFMA Research
Agricultural Services Dealership Survey Results.
Online document … http://agribusiness.purdue.edu/resources/2015-precision-
dealership-survey-results
Fernandez-Cornejo …