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March 9, 2011
Energy
Agriculture, and the U.S. Geological Survey.
The location of ethanol … and the U.S. Geological
Survey.
The location of ethanol …
May 2, 2022
Recent Videos, Risk and Profit Online Mini-Conference Presentations
dangerous areas to be surveyed are 132 023 square kilometers … acres)
General statistic regarding demining on the territory of Ukraine by the State Emergency Service since the war beginning as on April 26, 2022:
Source: The State Emergency Service of Ukraine
Surveyed areas – 78.25 square kilometers (19335 acres …
August 1, 2025
Breakout Sessions
from total area 56.8%
Ukraine’s Cropland, 2021
Source: WorldCereal
Critical Raw Materials of Ukraine
Source: Ukrainian Geological Survey
UKRAINE DEMINING17.4mln … haCleared through demining or non‐technical survey1.7 mln ha in 2024
Cleared …
April 25, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
2011/12
6/4/2010 to
4/15/2016
U.S. DOE‐EIA data
2013/142012/13
20
09
/10
2014/15
20
15
/16
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To date in the “current” 2015/16 marketing year, corn usage for ethanol production has been on pace to
reach approximately 5.267 to 5.325 bb – 17 to 75 mb greater than the USDA’s April 12, 2016 WASDE report
estimate of 5.250 bb of corn to be used for ethanol production during this current marketing year. As a result
of these calculations, projected Kansas State University use of U.S. corn for ethanol production in “next crop”
2016/17 under Scenario A (i.e., full production of 13.825 bb) is 5.265 bb – up 40 mb from the USDA 2016
Agricultural Outlook Conference forecast of 5.225 bb for “next crop” MY 2016/17 (Table 1).
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is provided in Figure 9 – which shows the estimated
amount of a) DDGS corn equivalent U.S. domestic livestock feeding, and b) DDGS corn equivalent exports as
well as other categories of U.S. corn usage since MY 1989/90.
DDGS Feed Use: This analysis assumes 16.00 pounds of distillers dried grains and solubles (DDGS) per 56
pound bushel of corn used in ethanol production – following from recent ethanol industry surveys. According
to these KS …
April 30, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand – Focus on “New Crop” 2015/16 Projections
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
In the March 31, 2015 USDA Prospective Plantings report the USDA projected that 2015 U.S. corn total
planted acreage would be 89.199 million acres (ma), down 2.398 ma (down 1.5%) from 90.597 ma in 2014,
down 6.166 ma (‐6.5%) from 95.365 ma in 2013, down 8.092 ma (‐8.3%) from 97.291 ma in 2012, and down
from 91.921 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figure 3).
Assuming the average harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. corn over the 2007‐2014 period of 91.6%,
2015 U.S. corn harvested acreage would be 81.706 ma, down 1.430 ma (‐1.7%) from 83.136 ma in 2014, down
5.745 ma (‐6.6%) from 87.451 ma in 2013, down 5.659 ma (‐6.5%) from 87.365 ma in 2012, and down from
83.981 ma in 2011.
The 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 171.0 bushels per acre (bu/ac) is a record high and unchanged from
the January‐March USDA reports, but is higher than the 166.8 bu/ac estimate in the 2015 USDA Agricultural
Outlook Forum estimate given on February 19‐20, 2015 in Arlington, Virginia (Table 1 and Figure 4). This early
2015 USDA projection of 166.8 bu/ac is up from 158.1 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 low yield of
123.1 bu/ac., 147.2 bu/ac in 2011, 152.8 bu/ac in 2010, and and up from the previous record high of 164.7
bu/ac in 2009.
Based on this combination of projections for 2015 planted acreage (89.199 ma – from the USDA),
harvested acreage (81.706 ma – a KSU assumption based on recent historic percent harvested‐to‐planted
acres), and yield (166.8 ma – USDA), 2015 U.S. corn production would be 13.629 billion bushels (bb) – down
from the record high of 14.206 bb 2014, and the previous record high of 13.829 bb in 2013 – but up from
10.755 bb in 2012, 12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 bb in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009 (Table 1).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA projects that total supplies of U.S. corn for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are a record high 15.472
bb – resulting from beginning stocks of 1.232 bb, projected 2014 production of 14.216 bb, and projected
imports of 25 million bushel (mb) (Table 1 and Figure 5). For “new crop” MY 2015/16, Total supplies are
expected to be “equal‐or‐marginally higher at 15.481 bb – resulting from beginning stocks of 1.827 bb,
projected 2015 production of 13.629 bb, and projected imports of 25 million bushel (mb) in “new crop” MY
2015/16 (Table 1). Total supplies of near 15.5 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop” MY would
both be record highs relative to recent years, being comparable to 14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY
2008/09, 14.774 bb in MY 2009/10, 14.182 bb in MY 2010/11, 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.904 bb in “short
crop” MY 2012/13, and 14.686 bb in MY 2013/14.
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The implicit USDA forecast of beginning stocks of 1.827 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 (equal to ending
stocks from “current year” MY 2014/15) are up substantially from 1.232 bb in beginning stocks in “current
crop” MY 2014/15, 821 mb in MY 2013/14, 989 mb in MY 2012/13, and 1.128 bb in MY 2011/12, and at least
moderately larger than 1.708 bb in MY 2010/11, 1.673 bb in MY 2009/10, and 1.624 bb in MY 2008/09. This
amount of beginning stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 of 1.827 bb is up considerably from the low of 426 mb
that occurred in MY 1996/97, and the highest since 1.967 bb in MY 2006/07 and 2.114 bb in MY 2005/07
(Table 1 and Figure 5).
Imports of 25 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be down from 36 mb in MY 2013/14 (the
2nd highest on record), and are also down sharply from the record high of 160 mb in the drought‐stressed
2012/13 marketing year. The KSU projection of 25 mb in imports in “new crop” MY 2015/16 would be equal to
the amount in “current crop” MY 2014/15. These amounts of U.S. corn imports are comparable to 29 mb in
MY 2011/12, and 28 mb in MY 2010/11.
U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.200 bb in
“current crop” MY 2014/15 is unchanged from March, but down 50 mb from 5.250 bb in February, but still up
from 5.175 bb in January and from 5.150 bb in the December 2014 WASDE report. These adjustments in the
USDA projections since December 2014 are due to a) low corn input prices, b) at least moderate strength in
distillers grains co‐product prices, and c) increased projections of 2015 U.S. gasoline consumption released in
recent months (Table 1 and Figures 6‐7). This projection of 5.200 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from
5.134 bb in MY 2013/14, 4.641 bb in MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12. The USDA projected that
5.225 bb of U.S. corn would be used in ethanol production in “new crop” MY 2015/16 at its Agricultural
Outlook Forum on February 19‐20, 2015 in Arlington, Virginia.
Figure 7 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State
University. Assuming 2.83 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn (equaling the calculated conversion
of U.S. corn into ethanol in January 2015), these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected annual rate
of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current crop” MY 2014/15 has ranged from 4.772‐5.374 bb on a
weekly basis since early September 2014 ‐ the beginning of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year. Over
the period of from September 1, 2014 through April 24, 2015, corn usage for ethanol production was been on
pace to reach 5.117 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15. This estimate of 5.117 bb is 83 mb less than the USDA’s
April 9, 2015 WASDE report estimate of 5.200 bb of corn to be used for ethanol production during “current
crop” MY 2014/15, with 34 of 52 weeks (65.4%) of the marketing year completed.
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is provided in Figure 8 – which shows estimated a) DDGS
corn equivalent U.S. domestic livestock feeding, and b) DDGS exports as well as other categories of U.S. corn
usage since MY 1989/90.
This analysis assumes 16.00 pounds of distillers dried grains and solubles (DDGS) per 56 pound bushel of
corn used in ethanol production – following from recent ethanol industry surveys. By these estimates, since
MY 2010/11 approximately 0.993‐1.130 bb of U.S. corn equivalent bushel‐weights of DDGS are projected
either to have already been or are to be fed to U.S. livestock during each marketing year – i.e., 1.108 bb in
DDGS corn‐weight equivalents in MY 2010/11, 1.130 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.004 bb in MY 2012/13, 993 mb
Page | 6
projected for MY 2013/14, and a projection of 1.006 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15. Over the five most
recent marketing years, DDGS exports in corn equivalent weights are estimated to range from 299 to 479 mb,
– i.e., 326 mb in DDGS corn‐weight equivalents in MY 2010/11, 299 mb in MY 2011/12, 322 mb in MY 2012/13,
473 mb estimated for MY 2013/14, and a projection of a record high 479 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15.
U.S. Corn Exports: Projected U.S. corn exports of 1.800 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 were unchanged
in March, but up 50 mb from the February WASDE report. This projection of 1.800 bb for MY 2014/15 is down
from the estimate of 1.917 bb in MY 2013/14, but are up sharply from 730 mb in MY 2012/13 – the 40 year
low since MY 1975/76 (Table 1, Figures 6 and 8). The USDA projected that 1.850 bb of U.S. corn would be
exported in “new crop” MY 2015/16 at its Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 19‐20, 2015 in Arlington,
Virginia.
According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) weekly export data (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐
sales/esrd1.html), as of April 23rd, through the 34th week of “current crop” MY 2014/15 (34 of 52 weeks), 1.057 bb
of U.S. corn had been physically shipped for export – equal to 58.7% of the USDA’s updated projection for
“current crop” MY 2014/15 of 1.800 bb. An additional 530.5 mb of U.S. corn had been pre‐sold for future
export shipments during the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year – prior to August 31, 2015 (the end of
“current crop” MY 2014/15).
Adding together 1,056.7 mb in past shipments plus 530.5 mb in forward sales amounts to 1,587.2 mb, or
88.2% of the USDA’s 1.800 bb U.S. corn export target for “current crop” MY 2014/15 in the April 9th USDA
WASDE report with 65.4% (34/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed. United States’ corn exports will
need to average 41.29 mb per week for the remainder of the “current crop” 2014/15 marketing year to
achieve the USDA’s 1.800 bb projection. This compares to 41.0 mb and 50.0 mb of export shipments for the
weeks ending April 16th and April 23rd, respectively – i.e., equal to and ahead of the pace needed to meet the
USDA’s export projection, respectively.
Non‐Ethanol FSI: Forecast non‐ethanol food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of 1.395 bb in “current crop”
MY 2014/15 is greater than 1.367 bb in MY 2013/14, and compares to 1.397 bb in MY 2012/13, and 1.428 bb
in MY 2011/12 (Table 1, Figures 6 and 8). The USDA projected that 1.410 bb of U.S. corn would be used for
Non‐ethanol FSI production in “new crop” MY 2015/16 at its Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 19‐20,
2015 in Arlington, Virginia.
Feed and Residual Use: Forecast U.S. feed and residual use of 5.250 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is
down 50 mb from March, and down 125 mb from 5.375 bb in the December 2014 WASDE (Table 1, Figures 6
and 8). This projection of 5.250 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 is up from 5.036 bb for MY 2013/14, 4.315
bb in MY 2012/13, and 4.557 bb in MY 2011/12. These levels of corn use for livestock feeding are somewhat
correlated with the amounts of energy feeds per grain consuming animal units reported by the USDA over the
same time period as shown in what follows. The USDA projected that 5.275 bb of U.S. corn would be used
directly for livestock feed in “new crop” MY 2015/16 at its Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 19‐20,
2015 in Arlington, Virginia.
In the USDA April 13th Feed Outlook Report (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/FDS/FDS‐04‐13‐2015.pdf) the
USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) indicates that over the MY 2012/13 through “current crop” MY
2014/15 time period, the total amount of Energy Feeds in the U.S. – including corn, sorghum, barley, oats and
wheat – was estimated to be 125.7 million metric tons (mmt) in MY 2012/13 (87.2% corn), and 134.4 mmt in
MY 2013/14 (95.2% corn), and is projected to be 142.4 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (93.6% corn). Over
Page | 7
this same 3 year period, total U.S. Grain Consuming Animal Units (GCAUs) were estimated to be 92.3 million
in MY 2012/13, 90.9 million in “current” MY 2013/14, and 93.2 million in “current crop” MY 2014/15.
As a result, U.S. Energy Feeds per Grain Consuming Animal Unit is estimated to be 1.362 metric tons per
animal unit (mt/au) in MY 2012/13, and 1.479 mt/au in MY 2013/14, and is projected to be 1.528 mt/au in
“current crop” MY 2014/15. As the availability of feed grain and other energy feeds has increased or is
expected to increase from the drought stricken “short crop” year of MY 2012/13 to the previous record “large
crop” MY 2013/14, and now into the new even bigger record large “current crop” MY 2014/15 for corn and
other aggregated feedgrains, the amount of energy feeds fed per animal unit and total feed use of U.S. corn
has increased – helping to bring downward pressure on the prices of U.S. corn and other feedgrains.
Total Use of U.S. Corn for “current crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be a record high 13.645 bb – down 50
mb from the March USDA WASDE report. This compares to the previous record high of 13.454 bb in MY
2013/14, and is up sharply from 11.083 bb in drought‐affected MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figures 6 and 8).
United States’ total corn use has varied widely in recent marketing years – due mainly to changes in available
U.S. corn supplies. Corn use in the U.S. over time have changed from 12.737 bb in MY 2007/08, to 12.056 bb
in MY 2008/09, 13.066 bb in MY 2009/10, 13.055 bb in MY 2010/11, 12.528 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.083 bb in
MY 2012/13, the previous record high of 13.454 bb in MY 2013/14, and now to the new projected record high
amount of 13.645 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15. The USDA projected that a record high total of 13.750 bb
of U.S. corn would be used in “new crop” MY 2015/16 at its Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 19‐20,
2015 in Arlington, Virginia.
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks‐to‐Use, & Prices
U.S. corn ending stocks for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 1.827 bb – up 50 mb from
March, equal to the USDA February WASDE projection, while being down from earlier projections of 1.998 bb
in December 2014, and 2.081 bb in the October 2014 WASDE report (Table 1 & Figure 9). Since MY 2006/07
(1.304 bb), U.S. corn ending stocks have been 1.624 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.673 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.708 bb in
MY 2009/10, 1.128 bb in MY 2010/11, 989 mb in MY 2011/12, 821 mb in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13,
1.232 bb in MY 2013/14, and are now projected to be 1.827 bb in “current crop” MY 2014/15. Using a
combination of most recent USDA planted acreage, yield, and usage assumptions and KSU estimates of
harvested acreage (explained above), projected U.S. corn ending stocks in “new crop” MY 2015/16 equal
1.731 bb.
Projected percent (%) ending stocks‐to‐use of 13.39% in “current crop” MY 2014/15 are up from 12.98% in
the March WASDE, but equal to 13.39% in February, while being down from 13.81% in January, 14.62% in
December, 14.70% in November, and from 15.3% in the October 2014 WASDE report (Table 1 and Figures 9
and 10). On a year‐by‐year basis, U.S. corn % ending stocks‐to‐use trended downward from 12.8% in MY
2007/08 and 13.9% in MY 2008/09, to 13.1% in MY 2009/10, 8.6% in MY 2010/11, 7.9% in MY 2011/12, and
then down to 7.4% in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13, before increasing for the first time in six (6) years to
9.16% in MY 2013/14, and now again up to a projected level of 13.39% in “current crop” MY 2014/15.
U.S. average corn prices for “current crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be in the range of $3.55‐$3.85
bu/ac (midpoint = $3.70) (Table 1 & Figures 8‐9). This price range is narrower by $0.05 /bu on each end of the
range from March with the same midpoint of $3.70 per bushel. After mid‐point estimates of $3.50 /bu in
November‐December 2014 for “current crop” MY 2014/15, the USDA raised it’s midpoint forecast estimates to
$3.65 in January‐February 2015, and now to $3.70 in the March‐April 2015 USDA WASDE reports. Using a
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combination of most recent USDA planted acreage, yield, and usage assumptions and KSU estimates of
harvested acreage (explained above), projected U.S. corn average prices in “new crop” MY 2015/16 equal
$3.85 /bu.
Since the beginning of the rapid expansion in U.S. ethanol production in 2006, U.S. corn prices have moved
first higher, then lower, and then higher again, changing from $3.04 /bu in MY 2006/07, to $4.20 in MY
2007/08, $4.06 in MY 2008/09, $3.55 in MY 2009/10, $5.18 in MY 2010/11, $6.22 in MY 2011/12, and then up
to the record high of $6.89 in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13. However, if the April 9th WASDE projection
holds true, prices will have declined for two consecutive years since the $6.89 record high in MY 2012/13,
down to $4.46 in MY 2013/14, and again down to $3.55‐$3.85 (midpoint = $3.70) in “current crop” MY
2014/15.
I‐D. USDA & KSU Corn Market Scenarios for “New Crop” MY 2015/16
Both the USDA and Kansas State University Extension have provided initial forecasts of U.S. corn supply‐
demand balances and prices for the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year, with details provided below. The
USDA forecast provided here is an “adjusted version” of the U.S. corn supply‐demand and price forecast
provided at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum held at Arlington, Virginia on February 19‐20, 2015.
Specifically, adjustments were made in the “beginning stocks” MY 2015/16 estimates of these USDA
forecasts based on updated U.S. corn beginning stocks information available in the March 10, 2015 USDA
WASDE report. Also, U.S. corn planted acres from the March 31st USDA Prospective Plantings Report were
used rather than the 2015 Agricultural Outlook Forum forecast. The 2015 USDA Ag Outlook Forum forecasts
for corn, wheat, and soybeans are available online: http://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/2015_Speeches/Grains_Oilseeds.pdf
Two probability‐weighted Kansas State University (KSU) projections are provided – one based on a normal
crop “trend yield” of 162.3 bu/ac (given an 80% probability of occurring in 2015), and the other based on a
short crop “low yield” of 155.0 bu/ac (given a 20% probability of occurring in 2015).
A. USDA “New Crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand & Price Projection
For “new crop” MY 2015/16, this USDA projection reflects the likelihood of a 1.398 ma reduction in U.S.
corn planted acreage in 2015, and how the USDA projects that a possible return to lower U.S. corn yields in
2015 of 166.8 bu/ac along with a moderation of 2015 U.S. corn production would likely affect U.S. corn supply‐
demand balances and prices in the coming “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year, i.e., September 1, 2015
through August 31, 2016 (Table 1).
A Kansas State University assumption that the percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage in 2015 will equal the
2007‐2014 average of 91.6% combined with the USDA’s preliminary 2015 U.S. corn yield projection of 166.8
bu/ac leads to an adjusted USDA forecast of 2015 U.S. corn production of 13.629 bb. Following this
projection of corn production for “new crop” MY 2015/16, U.S. total corn supplies are projected to be 15.481
bb (with the adjustment for 1.827 bb in U.S. corn beginning stocks), while U.S. total corn usage is still
estimated to be 13.750 bb (Table 1).
Consequently, U.S. corn ending stocks are projected to be 1.731 bb in this adjusted USDA projection for
“new crop” MY 2015/16, with % ending stocks‐to‐use of 12.60%. The adjusted forecast of U.S. corn average
prices (according to KSU estimates) would be $3.85 /bu for “new crop” MY 2015/16, up marginally from
“current crop” MY 2014/15 (Table 1 and Figures 8‐9).
Page | 9
Adjusted USDA Scenario for “New Crop” MY 2015/16 U.S. Corn S/D & Prices
1.398 million acres planted & 166.8 bu/ac yields
‐ 2015 U.S. Planted Acres …
June 1, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Ending Stocks
Page | 11
Figure 8 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas State
University. Assuming 2.83 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn, these calculations indicate that the
equivalent projected annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current” MY 2015/16 has
ranged from 5.060‐5.526 bb on a weekly basis during the week ending April 29, 2016. The largest amounts of
U.S. ethanol production and subsequent corn use to date in the “current” MY 2015/16 marketing year have
occurred during the weeks ending November 20th (5.526 bb marketing year corn use rate), December 11th,
2015 (5.482 bb), January 8th (5.499 bb), and March 11th, 2016 (5.477 bb). For the week ending May 20th U.S.
ethanol production was using U.S. corn at a rate equal to 5.183 bb for the marketing year.
Figure 8. Weekly U.S. Oxygenate Plant Production of Fuel Ethanol & Estimated Corn Use
To date in the “current” 2015/16 marketing year, corn usage for ethanol production has been on pace to
reach approximately 5.245 to 5.303 bb – down 5 mb to 53 mb greater than the USDA’s May 10, 2016 WASDE
report estimate of 5.250 bb of corn to be used for ethanol production during this current marketing year. As a
result of these calculations, projected Kansas State University use of U.S. corn for ethanol production in “next
crop” 2016/17 under Scenario A (i.e., full production of 13.908 bb) is 5.250 bb – down 50 mb from the USDA
May 10th WASDE forecast of 5.300 bb for “next crop” MY 2016/17 (Table 1).
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is provided in Figure 9 – which shows the estimated
amount of a) DDGS corn equivalent U.S. domestic livestock feeding, and b) DDGS corn equivalent exports as
well as other categories of U.S. corn usage since MY 1989/90.
DDGS Feed Use: This analysis assumes 16.00 pounds of distillers dried grains and solubles (DDGS) per 56
pound bushel of corn used in ethanol production – following from recent ethanol industry surveys. According
to these KSU estimates, since MY 2010/11 an average of approximately 1.051 bbeqwt (billion bushels of
equivalent bushel‐weights of U.S. corn) with a range of 0.992‐1.130 bbeqwt of DDGS are projected either to
have already been or are to be fed to U.S. livestock during each marketing year.
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Rate of Ethanol Production (1,000 Barrels / day …
February 11, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Total Supply
Page | 8
This analysis assumes 16.00 pounds of distillers dried grains and solubles (DDGS) per 56 pound bushel of
corn used in ethanol production – following from recent ethanol industry surveys. According to these KSU
estimates, since MY 2010/11 approximately 0.992‐1.130 bbeqwt (billion bushels of equivalent bushel‐weights of
of U.S. corn) of DDGS are projected either to have already been or are to be fed to U.S. livestock during each
marketing year – i.e., 1.108 bbeqwt in DDGS corn‐weight equivalents in MY 2010/11, 1.130 bbeqwt in MY
2011/12, 1.004 bbeqwt in MY 2012/13, 0.992 bbeqwt in MY 2013/14, 1.034 bbeqwt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and
1.037 bbeqwt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, with a projection of 1.032 bbeqwt in “next crop” MY 2015/16.
Over the five most recent marketing years, DDGS exports in million bushels of corn equivalent weights
(mbeqwt) are estimated to range from 299 to 472 mbeqwt – i.e., 326 mbeqwt in DDGS corn‐weight equivalents in
MY 2010/11, 299 mbeqwt in MY 2011/12, 322 mbeqwt in MY 2012/13, a record high 472 mbeqwt in MY 2013/14,
454 mbeqwt in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 455 mbeqwt in “new crop” MY 2015/16, and a projection of 453
mbeqwt in “next crop” MY 2016/17.
U.S. Corn Exports: Projected U.S. corn exports of 1.650 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are down 50 mb
from January USDA projections, and are down from 1.864 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and 1.920 bb in MY
2013/14, but are still up sharply from 730 mb in MY 2012/13 – the 41 year low (i.e., since MY 1975/76) (Table
1, Figures 7 and 8).
According to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) weekly export data (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/export‐
sales/esrd1.html), as of February 4th, through the first 22 weeks of “new crop” MY 2015/16 (22 of 52 weeks), 490.1
mb of U.S. corn had been physically shipped for export – equal to 29.7% of the USDA’s projection of 1.650 bb
for “new crop” MY 2015/16 with 42.3% (22/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed. An additional 479.6
mb of U.S. corn had been pre‐sold for future export shipments during the remainder of “new crop” 2015/16
marketing year – ending August 31, 2016 (the end of “new crop” MY 2015/16).
Adding together 490.1 mb in past shipments plus 479.6 mb in forward sales amounts to 969.7 mb, or
58.8% of the USDA’s 1.650 bb U.S. corn export target for “new crop” MY 2015/16 in the December 9th USDA
WASDE report with 42.3% (22/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed. United States’ corn export
shipments will need to average 38.7 mb per week for the remaining 30 weeks of the “new crop” 2015/16
marketing year to achieve the USDA’s 1.650 bb projection. For the weeks ending January 28th and February
4th, U.S. corn export shipments of 26.0 mb and 20.8 mb occurred, respectively, behind the pace needed to
fulfill the USDA’s February 9th export projection.
Non‐Ethanol FSI: Forecast non‐ethanol food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of 1.370 bb in “new crop” MY
2015/16 – unchanged from January. Non‐ethanol FSI usage of 1.370 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is projected
to be greater than 1.359 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and compares to 1.369 bb in MY 2013/14, and 1.397 bb
in MY 2012/13 (Table 1, Figures 7 and 9).
Feed and Residual Use: Forecast U.S. feed and residual use of 5.300 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is
unchanged from January. Feed and residual use of 5.300 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is down from 5.315 bb
for “old crop” MY 2014/15, but up from 5.040 bb in MY 2013/14, 4.315 bb in MY 2012/13, and 4.519 bb in MY
2011/12 (Table 1, Figures 7 and 9). These levels of corn use for livestock feeding are somewhat correlated
with the amounts of energy feeds per grain consuming animal units (GCAUs) reported by the USDA over the
same time period as illustrated in the following information.
In the USDA January 14th Feed Outlook Report (http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/FDS/FDS‐01‐14‐2016.pdf)
indicates that over the MY 2013/14 through “new crop” MY 2015/16 time period, the total amount of Energy
Page | 9
Feeds in the U.S. – including corn, sorghum, barley, oats and wheat – is estimated to have been 134.8 million
metric tons (mmt) in MY 2013/14 (95.0% corn), and 143.4 mmt in “old crop” MY 2014/15 (94.1% corn), and is
forecast to be 145.2 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 (92.6% corn). Over this same 3 year period, total U.S.
Grain Consuming Animal Units (GCAUs) are estimated to have been 90.4 million in MY 2013/14, and 92.6
million in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and are forecast to be 93.4 million in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
As a result, U.S. Energy Feeds per Grain Consuming Animal Unit is estimated to have been 1.491 metric
tons per animal unit (mt/au) in MY 2013/14, and 1.549 mt/au in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and is projected to be
1.554 mt/au in “new crop” MY 2015/16. As the availability of feed grain and other energy feeds has increased
or is expected to increase from the drought stricken “short crop” year of MY 2012/13 to the successive record
“large crop” years of MY 2013/14, “old crop” MY 2014/15, and now into the expected third consecutive large
crop year in “new crop” MY 2015/16 for corn and other aggregated feedgrains, the amount of energy feeds
fed per animal unit and total feed use of U.S. corn has risen – contributing to downward pressure on the prices
of U.S. corn and other feedgrains.
Total Use of U.S. Corn for “new crop” MY 2015/16 is projected to be a near record 13.545 bb (down 25 mb
from January) (Table 1 and Figures 7 and 9). This amount of total U.S. corn use is down from the previous
record high of 13.748 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15. United States’ total corn use has varied widely in recent
marketing years – following changes in available U.S. corn supplies. Corn use in the U.S. over time has changed
from 12.737 bb in MY 2007/08, to 12.008 bb in MY 2008/09, 13.041 bb in MY 2009/10, 13.033 bb in MY
2010/11, 12.482 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.083 bb in MY 2012/13, the one time record high of 13.454 bb in MY
2013/14, the record high amount of 13.748 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and now the 2nd highest amount on
record of 13.545 bb in “new crop” MY 2015/16. The USDA has preliminarily projected “next crop” MY 2016/17
total use of U.S. corn to be a record high 13.935 bb.
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks‐to‐Use, & Prices
U.S. corn ending stocks for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be 1.837 bb (up 35 mb from January)
(Table 1 & Figures 7 and 9). Since MY 2004/05 U.S. corn ending stocks of 2.114 bb, ending stocks have been
1.967 bb in MY 2005/06, 1.304 bb in MY 2006/07, 1.624 bb in MY 2007/08, 1.673 bb in MY 2008/09, 1.708 bb
in MY 2009/10, 1.128 bb in MY 2010/11, 989 mb in MY 2011/12, 821 mb in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13,
1.232 bb in MY 2013/14, and 1.731 bb in “old crop” MY 2014/15, and now are forecast to be 1.837 bb in “new
crop” MY 2015/16, with a preliminary forecast of 1.832 bb in “next crop” MY 2016/17.
Projected percent (%) ending stocks‐to‐use of 13.56% in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are up from 13.28% in
January (Table 1 and Figures 10 and 11). On a year‐by‐year basis, U.S. corn % ending stocks‐to‐use trended
downward from 12.75% in MY 2007/08 and 13.94% in MY 2008/09, to 13.10% in MY 2009/10, 8.65% in MY
2010/11, 7.92% in MY 2011/12, and then down to 7.41% in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13. Then U.S. corn
ending stocks‐to‐use increased for the first time in six (6) years to 9.16% in MY 2013/14, and then increased
again to 12.59% in “old crop” MY 2014/15 – with a projected increase to 13.56% in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Preliminary projections are for U.S. corn ending stocks‐to‐use to be 13.15% in “next crop” MY 2016/17.
U.S. average corn prices for “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be in the range of $3.35‐$3.85 bu/ac
(midpoint = $3.60) – with the midpoint of $3.60 unchanged from January but down from a projection of $3.50‐
$4.10 ($3.80 midpoint) by the USDA in the earlier October 9, 2015 WASDE report (Table 1 and Figures 10 and
11). Since the beginning of the rapid expansion in U.S. ethanol production in 2006, U.S. corn prices have
moved from $3.04 /bu in MY 2006/07, to $4.20 in MY 2007/08, $4.06 in MY 2008/09, $3.55 in MY 2009/10,
Page | 10
$5.18 in MY 2010/11, $6.22 in MY 2011/12, and then up to the record high of $6.89 in “drought stricken” MY
2012/13. However, if the February 9th WASDE projection holds true, prices will now have declined year‐by‐
year since the $6.89 record high in MY 2012/13, down to $4.46 in MY 2013/14, $3.70 in “old crop” MY
2014/15, and now to a projected range of $3.35‐$3.85 (midpoint = $3.60) in “new crop” MY 2015/16. The
USDA’s preliminary projection for “next crop” MY 2016/17 is $3.60 /bu.
Figure 7. U.S. Corn Use & Ending Stocks since MY 2004/05 as of February 9, 2016
Figure 8. Weekly U.S. Oxygenate Plant Production of Fuel Ethanol & Estimated Corn Use
6.135 …
May 28, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
DA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2015/16 Projections
On May 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2015 World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean supply‐
demand and price projections for the 2013/14, “current” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16
marketing years. The “new crop” 2015/16 U.S. corn marketing year will begin on September 1, 2015 and will
last through August 31, 2016.
In the May 12th WASDE report the USDA released projections for the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year
for corn, grain sorghum, wheat, soybeans and other major crops. Projections of 2015 crop size for soybeans
are based on WAOB estimates of crop acreage and yields. However, the first projection of 2015 U.S. soybean
production by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) that will be based on actual farmer
surveys and field trials will be in the August 12, 2015 NASS Crop Production and WAOB WASDE reports.
I‐B. Updated Comments on Predominant Soybean Market Trends
The activities of the World soybean market in over the last 3 to 5 years can be better understood if a
person recognizes several “predominant trends” that have been occurring in production and export/import
trade among major countries and regions of the World involved in the soybean trade. The primary countries
involved in these predominant trends have been China on the demand side and South American countries
(Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and others) and the United States on the supply side.
Uptrends in Chinese Soybean Usage & Imports
Growing Chinese domestic use and imports of soybeans have been the key market demand “driver” in
World soybean markets in recent years. Chinese soybean domestic usage is has increased from 76.18 million
metric tons (mmt) in MY 2012/13 (29.1% of World use), up to 80.3 mmt in MY 2013/14 (29.2% of World use),
to 85.78 mmt in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (29.4% of World use), and further up to a projected level of 89.25
mmt (29.3% of World use) in “new crop” MY 2015/16. Chinese soybean domestic usage of 89.25 mmt in “new
crop” MY 2015/16 is projected to be up 4.1% over 85.78 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15, and up 11.1% over
80.3 mmt two years ago.
Chinese domestic production of soybeans was 13.05 mmt in MY 2012/13 (17.1% of total use), 12.2 mmt in
MY 2013/14 (15.2% of usage), 12.35 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15 (14.4% of use), and is projected to be 11.5
mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 (12.9% of use). With domestic production declining as a proportion of total
use over the last three marketing years with more declines expected in “new crop” MY 2015/16, China is
forced to rely even more heavily on sizable amounts of soybean imports to fill domestic use needs.
Chinese soybean imports were estimated to be 59.9 mb in MY 2012/13 (62.4% of World soybean imports),
70.4 mb in MY 2013/14 (63.2% of the World total), and 73.5 mb in “current crop” MY 2014/15 (64.4% of the
World total), while being projected at 77.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 (64.8% of the World total).
Chinese soybean imports of 77.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be up 5.4% over “current”
MY 2014/15, and up 10.1% over two years ago.
Page | 3
Recent Trends in Major South American Country’s Soybean Production & Exports
There have been three successively larger record years of combined Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay
soybean production of 139.5 mmt in MY 2012/13, 148.4 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 161.5 mmt in “current crop”
MY 2014/15, with a fourth successive increase projected up to 162.8 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Soybean production from these three key South American countries amounted to 51.9% of World production
in MY 2012/13, 52.4% in MY 2013/14, and 50.9% in “current” MY 2014/15, and is projected to be 51.3% of the
World total in MY 2015/16. Projected combined Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay soybean production of 162.8
mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is estimated to be up 0.8% over “current” MY 2014/15, up 9.7% over MY
2013/14, and up 16.7% over MY 2012/13.
South American soybean exports have grown in a manner similar to production over this same period.
Overall, combined Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay soybean exports have trended higher in recent years –
starting with 55.16 mmt in MY 2012/13, then up to 59.47 mmt in MY 2013/14, and 58.45 mmt in “current” MY
2014/15, with an increase projected up to 62.85 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16. Total soybean exports from
these three key South American countries as a proportion of World exports has actually trended lower in
recent years, amounting to 54.9% in MY 2012/13, to 52.7% in MY 2013/14, and 49.7% of the World total in
“current” MY 2014/15, with a projection of 51.5% of World soybean exports in “new crop” MY 2015/16.
Projected combined Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay soybean exports of 62.85 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16
are projected to be up 7.5% from 58.45 mmt in “current” MY 2013/14, up 5.7% from 59.471 mmt in MY
2013/14, and up 13.9% from 55.16 mmt in MY 2012/13. The short term marginal decline in combined Brazil,
Argentina and Paraguay exports as a proportion of World soybean trade in “current” MY 2014/15 has been
caused by increases in United States’ exports.
Uptrends in United States’ Soybean Production & Exports
The growth in United States’ soybean production and exports compares to that in South America over this
same three period, with 82.8 mmt of U.S. soybean production in MY 2012/13 (30.8% of World total), 91.4 mmt
in MY 2013/14 (32.3% of World total), 108.0 mmt in “current” MY 2014/15 (34.0% of the World total), and a
projected level of 104.8 mmt in MY 2015/16 (33.0% of World total). Projected U.S. soybean production of
104.8 mmt (3.850 billion bushels or ‘bb’) in “new crop” MY 2015/16 is projected to be down 3.0% from 108.0
mmt (3.969 bb) in “current” MY 2014/15, but up 10.8% from 91.4 mmt (3.358 bb) in MY 203/14.
United States’ soybean exports have grown from 35.85 mmt in MY 2012/13 (35.7% of World total), to 44.8
mmt (1.647 bb) in MY 2013/14 (39.7% of World total), to 49.0 mmt (1.800 bb) in “current” MY 2014/15 (41.7%
of the World total), with a projection of 48.3 mmt (1.775 bb) in “new crop” MY 2015/16. Projected U.S.
soybean exports of 48.3 mmt in “new crop” MY 2015/16 are projected to be down 1.4% from “current” MY
2014/15, but up 7.8% from MY 2013/14.
The Necessity to the Soybean Market of Continued Strength in Chinese Import Demand
It is widely acknowledged by soybean market analysts that continued growth and/or at least “level
sustainability” of Chinese soybean imports at current and projected levels is necessary for continuance of the
historically high World soybean market prices that have occurred since the 2012/13 marketing year. The USDA
has continued to project that strong growth would occur in Chinese soybean imports in “new crop” MY
2015/16 and beyond. If this recent upward trend in Chinese soybean imports and import demand were to
falter, it would unquestionably have a substantial negative impact on U.S. and World soybean market prices.
Page | 4
As a result of a record large fall harvest of soybeans in the United States in 2014 and another anticipated
large crop in 2015, spot cash soybean prices at Farmers Grain Coop in Hutchinson, Kansas (Hutchinson being a
major grain market hub in the south central part of the state) had fallen to as low as $8.44 per bushel on
September 26, 2015, before moving above $9.00 on October 24, 2015. Cash soybean prices at this location
have traded in the range of $8.86 (on May 26, 2015) to $9.93 (on November 11, 2014 and January 6, 2015)
since then, with a cash spot price of $8.86 ($0.36 under basis) offered on Wednesday, May 26th.
Soybean forward contract prices for fall harvest in October 2015 in the Hutchinson, Kansas area on
Wednesday, May 27th were in the range of $8.29 / bu. ($0.78 under basis November 2015 CME Soybean
Futures) to $8.56 ($0.51 under basis). “New crop” NOV 2015 soybean futures were trading at $9.15 per bushel
that day at the time of these new crop forward contract bids on May 27th.
Given that the USDA projections for “current crop” MY 2014/15 and “new crop” MY 2015/16 indicate that
a) Chinese soybean imports will continue to be strong, and b) South American soybean production to be
harvested in early‐mid 2015 will again be record high, there is no indication yet that any change is expected in
these projected trends in production, exports or imports in the broader World soybean market. The
possibility of weather‐related soybean production problems in the United States during the summer‐fall of
2015 could impact these trends. However, until and unless such potential production problems actually do
occur, the World soybean market will likely assume that these “predominant adequate supply trends” will
continue into the foreseeable future.
I‐C. Soybean Futures and U.S. Dollar Index Trends
“Current crop” JULY 2015 soybean futures contract prices responded in a negative manner to the
information in the May 12th USDA reports (Figure 1). On the day of the reports CME JULY 2015 futures prices
opened at $9.73 ½ /bu, and traded as high as $9.81 ½ and as low as $9.55 during the session, before settling at
$9.55 ½ – down $0.18 ½ for the day. Since then JULYY 2015 soybean futures prices have traded within the
range from a high of $9.64 ½ on May 18th, to a low of $9.22 ½ on May 26th, before closing at $9.27 on
Wednesday, May 27th.
Figure 1. JULY 2015 and NOV 2015 CME Soybean Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …
May 19, 2015
Grain Market Outlook
I‐A. May USDA Reports & “New Crop” MY 2015/16 Projections
On May 9th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its May 2015 World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World wheat supply‐demand and price
projections for the 2013/14, “current” 2014/15, as well as the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing years. The
“current” 2014/15 marketing year for U.S. wheat will end on May 31, 2015, while the “new crop” 2015/16 U.S.
wheat marketing year will begin on June 1, 2015 and will last through May 31, 2016.
In the May 12th WASDE report the USDA released projections for the “new crop” 2015/16 marketing year
for corn, grain sorghum, wheat, soybeans and other major crops. Projections of 2015 crop size for wheat are
based on actual farmer surveys and field trials conducted from April 24th to May 7th by the USDA National
Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
I‐B. CME Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures & U.S. Dollar Index Trends
Since market highs of $7.03 ¾ per bushel on December 18, 2014, the CME JULY 2015 Kansas hard red
winter wheat futures contract trended sharply lower – falling to a low of $5.37 on February 2, 2015. Then
after rising to a high of $5.86 on February 17, 2015, JULY 2015 futures fell again to $5.22 ¾ on March 6th.
Another round of an upward price trend to above $5.90 in early April was followed by a decline to below $$.90
in early May, and then a rise to $5.49 ½ on May 15, 2015.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) JULY 2015 Kansas HRW Wheat futures prices responded to the
release of the May 12th USDA reports by trading sideways‐to‐lower for the day. JULY 2015 HRW wheat
efutures prices opened at $5.09 on Tuesday, May 12th. The USDA reports were released at midday (i.e., 11
a.m., central time). That day prices traded as low as $5.05 ¼ and as high as $5.18 ¾ per bushel during the
session before closing $0.01 lower for the day at $5.07 ¾ /bu (Figure 1).
Figure 1. MAY 2015 & JULY 2015 CME Kansas Wheat Futures Price Charts (electronic trade) …