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September 27, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Harvested/Planted
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Corn Belt in spring 2016 may also have “pushed” what were intended to be U.S. corn plantings toward
soybeans.
Consideration of the FSA corn acreage data could cause 2016 U.S. soybean production and supply‐demand
balance estimates to change in the coming October 12th USDA reports. Specifically, formal consideration of
USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) crop acreage data in USDA 2016 soybean acreage estimates will begin with
the October 2016 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Crop Production report and the
accompanying October WASDE report by the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB).
U.S. Soybean Yield
The USDA has forecast 2016 U.S. soybean average yields at what would be a new record high of 50.6
bu/ac – up from 48.9 bu/ac in August, but still up markedly from the July 2016 projection of 46.7 bu/ac. This
September 2016 USDA forecast of 50.6 bu/ac is up from 48.0 bu/ac in 2015 (the current highest on record),
47.5 ma in 2014 (2nd highest), and 44.0 bu/ac in 2013 (tied for 3rd highest with 2009) (Table 1 and Figure 5).
Figure 5 shows the 1990‐2016 U.S. soybean yield trend with a 2016 U.S. soybean yield trend projections
for comparison. The USDA’s September 12th forecast of 2016 U.S. soybean yield is estimated by the USDA
National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) based on objective yield and farmer operator surveys
conducted between August 24th and September 7th – which were intended to represent 2016 U.S. soybean
yield prospects on September 1st.
This USDA projection of 2016 U.S. soybean yields is given a 100% probability of occurring with no
alternative Kansas State University 2016 U.S. soybean acreage, yield, and production scenario presented (KSU
Extension Ag Economist Daniel O’Brien).
Figure 5. U.S. Soybean Yields: 1990‐2016, As of September 12th USDA NASS Crop Production and WASDE
reports, & KSU Trend‐Line Yield projection
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December 29, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
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I. U.S. Soybean Market Situation and Outlook
I‐a. December 12th USDA Crop Production & WASDE Reports
On December 12th the USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) released its December 2017
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report – containing U.S. and World soybean
supply‐demand and price projections for the 2015/16, “old crop” 2016/17, and “new crop” 2017/18 marketing
years (MY). The “new crop” MY 2017/18 for U.S. soybeans began on September 1, 2017 and will last through
August 31, 2018. Monthly USDA WASDE estimates of U.S. crop and livestock supply‐demand and prices can
be found at the following web address: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
On the same day the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its December 2017
Crop Production report. This report can be found at the following web address:
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd‐12‐12‐2017.pdf
The next survey‐based report of U.S. soybean production results for 2017 will be released in the USDA
Annual Crop Production Summary and Crop Production reports on January 12, 2018. The same U.S. on‐farm
soybean plots which were sampled for the August, September, October, and November USDA NASS Crop
Production reports will revisited for the January 2018 report – with final 2017 production results reported.
On November 28, 2017 the USDA released its Long Term Agricultural Projections through year 2027.
United States’ soybean supply‐demand and price projections were included, along with corn, wheat, grain
sorghum cotton and other major crops. These Long Term Agricultural Projections can be found at the
following website: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/
I‐b. CME JANUARY & NOVEMBER 2018 Soybean Futures Trends
JANUARY 2018 CME Soybean Futures
Following a low of $9.15 ¼ on June 23, 2017, JANUARY 2018 Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) soybean
futures prices trended up sharply to a high of $10.54 ¼ on July 11, 2017 (Figure 1). JAN 2018 soybean futures
then had declined to a low of $9.29 ¼ by August 16th – before trending upward again to a high of $10.13 by
October 13th. After first declining to a low of $9.67 on November 14th and then again trending upward to a
high of $10.15 on December 5th, JAN 2018 soybeans dropped to a low of $9.46 ½ on December 22nd. Since
then, prices have traded in a range of $9.53 ½ to $9.64 ¾ before closing at $9.45 ¾ /bu on December 28th. The
close of $9.45 ¾ for JAN 2018 CME Soybean futures on December 28th was down 10.3% from the July 11th
(early summer 2017) price high of $10.54 ¼ /bu.
NOVEMBER 2018 CME Soybean Futures
In a similar trading pattern to JAN 2018 soybean futures, Following a low of $9.23 ½ on June 23, 2017,
NOVEMBER 2018 soybean futures prices trended up sharply to a high of $10.28 ¾ on July 12, 2017 (Figure 1).
NOV 2018 soybean futures then had declined to a low of $9.34 ½ by August 16th – before trending upward
again to highs of $10.13 by October 13th and $10.15 on November 9th. After first declining to a low of $9.80 ½
on November 14th and then again trending upward to a high of $10.24 on December 5th, NOV 2018 soybeans
dropped to a low of $9.70 on December 21st . Since then, prices have traded in a range of $9.70 to $9.87 ¼
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before closing at $9.72 ¾ /bu on December 28th. The close of $9.72 ¾ for NOV 2018 CME Soybean futures on
December 28th was down 5.4% from the July 12th (early summer 2017) price high of $10.28 ¾ /bu.
Figure 1. JANUARY 2018 & NOVEMBER 2018 CME Daily Soybean Futures Price Charts
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August 1, 2011
Land Buying and Valuing
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August 20, 2013
Land Buying and Valuing
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April 17, 2024
Hog Pricing
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December 27, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
Since 1992 there have been negative correlations of ‐0.777 and ‐0.795 between the U.S. Trade Weighted
dollar index and the Texas Gulf HRW Wheat and Kansas City, Missouri Wheat cash prices for Ordinary protein
levels, respectively. This indicates that cash prices of U.S. wheat – denominated or “priced” in U.S. dollars –
have a strong negative or inverse relationship with the value of the U.S. dollar over this time‐period.
U.S. Wheat Production Acreage, Yield & Production
U.S. Wheat Planted Acreage
In the December 12th Crop Production report, the USDA projected 2017 U.S. wheat planted acreage to be
46.012 million acres (ma) – down 4.107 ma (‐8.2%) from 50.119 million acres (ma) in 2016, down 8.987 ma (‐
16.3%) from 54.999 ma in 2015, and down 19.05% from 56.841 ma in 2014 (Table 1 and Figures 3 & 4). KSU
projections for All U.S. Wheat Planted Acres in 2017 equal those of the USDA.
U.S. Winter Wheat Planted Acres in 2017: The December 12th USDA Crop Production report
estimated U.S. winter wheat planted acres for harvest in 2017 to be 32.839 ma (Table 1 and Figures 3 & 4).
Winter wheat seedings of 32.696 ma in 2017 (seeded in fall 2016 for harvest in 2017) were down 3.456 ma (‐
9.6%) to 36.152 ma in 2016, down 6.985 ma (‐17.6%) from 39.681 ma in 2015, down 9.713 ma (‐22.9%) from
42.409 ma in 2014, and down 10.534 ma (‐24.4%) from 43.230 ma in 2013.
With continued low winter wheat prices in Kansas, associated low profitability prospects, and intensive
localized infestations in 2017 of debilitating diseases such as wheat streak mosaic in some parts of the state, it
is likely that seeded acreage of Kansas hard red winter wheat will trend lower in 2018. Hard red winter (HRW)
wheat in Kansas is typically seeded in during the mid‐September through October time‐period. The initial
survey estimates of U.S. and Kansas winter wheat seeded acres will be given in the USDA Winter Wheat and
Canola Seedings report to be released on January 12, 2018.
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