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December 21, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
… left unchanged its projections of a) projected
yields up to a record high of 175.4 bu/ac (vs the previous record of 174.6 in 2016), and b) 2017 U.S. corn
production up to 14.578 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016. The also USDA left unchanged
its forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to 16.922 bb – down marginally (20 mb) from last year’s
record high. Total use is forecast at 14.485 bb – raised 50 mb from November on higher ethanol use, but still
down 162 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are projected to be a 2.437 bb (16.8% S/U) – up from
2.295 bb (15.7% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17. United States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.20 /bu
(range of $2.85‐$3.55). This is down $0.16 /bu from $3.36 /bu from “old crop” MY 2016/17. This scenario is
given an 80% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Agricultural Economist D. O’Brien.
5. Alternative KSU Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2017/18
Two alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and prices are presented for “new crop” MY
2017/18. These projections are to show how varying corn export outcomes could affect the USDA’s projection
in the December 9, 2017 WASDE report.
A ‐ KSU “Higher Exports” MY 2017/18 Scenario: “2.250 bb Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes:
90.348 ma planted, 82.890 ma harvested, 175.4 bu/ac trend yield, 14.539 bb production, 16.884 bb total
supplies, 2.250 bb exports, 14.785 bb total use, 2.099 bb ending stocks, 14.20% S/U, & $3.55 /bu U.S. corn
average price;
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B ‐ KSU “Lower Exports” MY 2017/18 Scenario: “1.800 bb Exports” Scenario (10% probability) assumes:
90.348 ma planted, 82.890 ma harvested, 175.4 bu/ac trend yield, 14.539 bb production, 16.884 bb total
supplies, 1.800 bb exports, 14.360 bb total use, 2.524 bb ending stocks, 17.58% S/U, & $3.20 /bu U.S. corn
average price;
6. USDA Supply‐Demand & Price Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2018/19
In the November 28th Long Term Baseline projections, the USDA forecast for “next crop” MY 2018/19 that
2018 U.S. corn planted and harvested acres would equal 91.0 million acres (ma) and 83.7 ma, respectively,
both up from 90.429 ma planted and 83.119 ma harvested in 2017. Corn yields in 2018 are forecast at 173.5
bu/ac, down from the record high of 175.4 bu/ac in 2017. U.S. corn production is 2018 is projected to be
14.520 bb – down from 14.578 bb now projected for 2017.
The USDA forecast “new crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies to 17.007 bb – adjusted for changes in the
December WASDE report in MY 2017/18 ending stocks. Total use is forecast at 14.450 bb – down 35 mb from
this current marketing year. Ending stocks are projected to be a 2.557 bb (17.7% S/U) – up from 2.437 bb
(16.8% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18. United States’ corn prices are projected to average $3.30 /bu – up
from $3.20 /bu in “new crop” MY 2017/18.
5. World Corn Supply‐Demand – With & Without China
World corn production of 1,044.8 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down
2.9% from the record of 1,074.8 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but still up 7.3% from 973.5 mmt in MY
2015/16. World corn total supplies of 1,272.1 mmt are down marginally from the record high 1,290.5 mmt in
“old crop” MY 2016/17, but up from 1,183.2 mmt in MY 2015/16.
World corn exports of a 151.6 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2017/18, down 7.6% from the record
high of 164.1 mmt in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and up 26.7% from 119.7 mmt in MY 2015/16. Projected World
corn ending stocks of 204.1 mmt (19.1% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from the record high 227.3
mmt (21.4% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 214.9 mmt (22.2% S/U) in MY 2015/16. Projected
Foreign (Non‐U.S.) corn ending stocks of 142.2 mmt (16.5% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18 are down from
169.0 mmt (19.8% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and from 170.8 mmt (23.1% S/U) in MY 2015/16.
An alternative view of the World corn supply‐demand is presented if Chinese corn usage and ending stocks
are isolated from the World market. “World‐Less‐China” corn ending stocks are projected to be 124.5 mmt
(15.0% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2017/18, down from 126.6 mmt (15.2% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2016/17, but up
from 104.1 mmt (13.9% S/U) in MY 2015/16. These figures show that World stocks‐to‐use of corn less China’s
direct influence are projected to be approximately 21% lower (i.e., 15.0% S/U for the “World‐Less‐China”
versus 19.1% S/U for the “World” overall in “new crop” MY 2017/18).
At the same time, these figures also show that Chinese ending stocks of corn as proportion of the World
total are declining – down from 51.5% in MY 2015/16, to 44.3% in “old crop” MY 2016/17, and down to 39.0%
in “new crop” MY 2017/18. The deliberate actions in recent years ‐ taken by the Chinese government to
reduce feedgrain stockpiles – is impacting the relative amount of World total corn stocks they hold. These
actions may increase Chinese import demand for both U.S. corn and grain sorghum.
…
June 15, 2026
International Grain Markets
bushels, up 10
percent from the previous year.
In contrast to corn …
July 1, 2011
Financial Management
result. It is an update of previous research, however, this version … in this paper.
As in previous versions of this paper (see … because random localized events, such as weather or pest …
October 16, 2018
Grain Market Outlook
Negative U.S. Corn Market Factors
U.S. Corn Production in 2018: The most important negative market factor is the projected size of the 2018 U.S.
corn crop at 14.778 billion bushels (bb) – forecast to be the second highest on record behind 15.148 bb in
2016, but up from 14.601 bb in 2017 (Table 1 & Figures 5‐7).
Total U.S. Corn Supplies in “new crop” MY 2018/19: In addition, the USDA projects total supplies of U.S. corn
in the “new crop” 2018/19 marketing year (MY) starting 9/1/2018 to be a record high 16.968 bb –
maintaining downward pressure on U.S. corn prices. Total supplies of U.S. corn in MY 2016/17 were a
previous record high of 16.942 bb, and were only marginally lower at 16.934 bb in “old crop” MY 2017/18
which ended on August 31, 2018 (Table 1 & Figure 7).
…
June 9, 2012
Tonsor)
2
Events Summary
• State-by-State …
December 1, 2016
KFMA Research
1
Likelihood of Kansas Farm Financial Persistence
Jayce Stabel (jstabel@ksu.edu), Terry Griffin (twgriffin@ksu.edu) and Greg Ibendahl (ibendahl@ksu.edu)
Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics – December 2016
Do some farms consistently (persist) outperform their peers?
Persistence: Firm or obstinate continuance in a course of action in spite of difficulty or opposition.
Executive Summary
Often times farmers and agricultural lenders alike seek the ability to identify ways to improve farm
operations’ stability and profitability. Seeking these characteristics has been the goal of many research studies
previously. More often than not, luck was credited for contributing the majority of one farm’s success relative to their
competitors. The goal of this study was to evaluate that assumption and give producers a concrete answer to the
question of one farm’s ability to maintain their stability weathering even the sharpest market downturns and the
worst growing conditions.
Farmers across the United States are subject to many uncontrollable variables leaving them vulnerable to
agricultural downturns, such as the one that began in 2014. The unique nature of farms and their profitability creates
a difficult situation for farmers and agricultural lenders alike. Identifying and estimating the likelihood of financial
instability has become an area of interest for farmers, their advisors, and their financial lenders. Currently,
agricultural lenders are bound by traditional loan assessment techniques, such as net present values and loss‐based
methods. These techniques fail to account for the unique and often long‐term investment nature of farming. If an
additional method for identifying at‐risk farms or at least understanding the likelihood of instability in farm
profitability could be found, it would provide an insight into the riskiness of loaning to a farm.
Considering the difficulty associated with predicting farm default rates due to the complexity of the market
place, a secondary approach is possible. The dynamic nature of farm financials and the ever changing variables of
farming limit traditional statistical methods. This study utilized a new approach in determining farm financial stability
Kansas State University Department Of Agricultural Economics Extension Publication …
November 10, 2016
2016 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
which have experienced events
preventing farming in a single year, less than 5 years of tax
history are required.
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25 … Change to STAX provisions, not WFRP
– Previously, STAX automatically self‐cancelled if WFRP was
purchased
• …
September 5, 2018
Price Risk Publications
Daily implied volatilities can be calculated for each contract month, assuming there is volume trading in the
option market. In this fact sheet we compute daily implied volatilities for a four‐month deferred contract. For
instance, the corn IV calculated for March 1, 2018 would be the implied volatility of the July 2018 Corn contract on
March 1, 2018. We use a four‐month deferred measure instead of a nearby so the IV represents volatility into the
future, as opposed to volatility in a front month that is nearing expiration and may exhibit erratic changes as positions
are being offset or rolled forward. Also, it is not always possible to calculate an IV for an exact four‐month deferred
contract. For instance, corn trading in February would require an IV corresponding to a June Corn contract, which
does not exist. In these instances, the implied volatility values were determined by counting forward four months and
using the next succeeding contract. For example, the previously mentioned corn trading in February would have IV
values corresponding to the July Corn contract.
…
August 1, 2019
Breakout Sessions
Cannot deduct contributions required in exchange for seating preference at college events (Ahearn Fund)
Limitation on cash contributions increased to 60% of AGI (from 50%)
… the table gives the tax due on the amount that spills over to the 24% bracket in the previous example
38
Worksheet 2 accounts for itemized deductions that exceed standard deduction (standard deduction is built into withholding tables)
Also accounts for “above the line” deductions
…
June 16, 2023
Livestock Insurance
includes more growing seasons; previously only 4 growing seasons
were … yield, yet a large rainfall event on the last day of the period …