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January 29, 2021
Monthly Meat Demand Monitor (Prior Years)
Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act was …
May 1, 2024
Meat Demand Research Studies
pointing to notably different
economic impacts of anything altering … Specifically, we set up economic
models to use variation … Competition,’’ in The
Economics of New Goods, Studies in …
October 20, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
Kansas Wheat Seasonal Average Cash Price Trends
Seasonal average price index trends for Kansas wheat over the last 17 marketing years indicate definite
seasonal impacts or trend in cash wheat prices (Figure 2). Since the 1999/2000 marketing year Kansas hard
red winter wheat cash prices have typically been weakest during the harvest month of July, with an average
seasonal price index of 98.4% of the unweighted marketing year average Kansas wheat cash price for the June
through May marketing year. However, Kansas cash wheat prices have then tended to trend higher after
harvest through September‐October, then trended sideways from November through January, with moderate
seasonal strength in February‐March – followed by a sideways‐to‐lower trend during April and May.
The projected U.S. average cash price for U.S. hard red winter wheat in the “current crop” 2016/17
marketing year exhibits a pronounced price low in August‐September 2016 with monthly prices climbing
steadily from October through January 2017 – with a sideways to declining trend during February, followed by
a trend higher in April‐May (Figure 2). “Current crop” MY 2016/17 for U.S. wheat began on June 1, 2016 and
will conclude on May 31, 2017. If this projected price pattern were to become reality, it would signal the
JULY 2017 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
August 20, 2015 – October 19, 2016
Close = $4.64 ¾ on 10/19/2016
DEC 2016 CME KS HRW Wheat Futures
August 20, 2015 – October 19, 2016
Close = $4.25 ¼ on 10/19/2016
Page | 5
likelihood of returns to storage for Kansas wheat over the October 2016 harvest through January 2017 period.
These projections are taken from the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) wheat futures price forecast
model, available online at the following web address:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx
According to historic price patterns, most of the post‐harvest increase in Kansas wheat prices is usually
realized from July through October, with movement being mostly sideways through the remainder of the
marketing year. The most variability around these monthly indices have occurred during June‐July and the
period when the Kansas hard red winter wheat crop breaks winter dormancy (i.e., February‐March), with
accompanying production uncertainty in late spring (i.e., May).
Figure 2. Kansas Wheat Seasonal Price Index – Last 17 Marketing Years (MY 1999/00 – MY 2015/16)
plus “current crop” MY 2016/17 USDA projection (Source: KSU www.AgManager.info & USDA)
U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index & Global Wheat Prices
Since 1973 the monthly average trade‐weighted index value of the U.S. dollar relative to the currencies
of U.S. trading partner countries has averaged 94.3680 with a median value of 93.1623 – indicating some
positive skewness in U.S. dollar index values (i.e., a few very high values pulling up the average) (Figure 3).
The historic low in the U.S. dollar trade weighted index since 1973 was 69.0247 – occurring in August 2011.
The historic high of 143.9059 occurred in March 1985. Over the January 1973 through September 2016 period
the U.S. dollar index has declined at a rate of ‐0.0609 per month …
July 19, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
2017/18 ($5.14)
Page | 6
“Old crop” MY 2016/17 for U.S. wheat began on June 1, 2016 and concluded on May 31, 2017. The
projected U.S. average cash price for U.S. hard red winter wheat exhibited a pronounced price low in August‐
September 2016 with monthly prices climbing irregularly from October through March 2017 – with a sideways
to declining trend during April‐May (Figure 2).
USDA price model projections for “new crop” MY 2017/18 indicate that the final U.S. wheat season
average price will be $5.14 per bushel. These projections are taken from the USDA Economic Research Service
(ERS) wheat futures price forecast model, available online at the following web address:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data‐products/season‐average‐price‐forecasts.aspx
This projection of $5.14 per bushel is up $0.34 per bushel from the July 12th USDA WASDE midpoint
projection of $4.80, and nearly equal to the upper end of the USDA forecast range of $4.40‐$5.20 per bushel.
The seasonal price patterns presented in Figure 2 are calculated as a percent of an adjusted USDA’s futures‐
based price model season average price for “new crop” MY 2017/18 of $5.14 per bushel. This projection
reflects higher projected cash prices (i.e., from deferred futures prices and basis projections) for the June 1,
2017 through May 31, 2018 period (i.e., for “new crop” MY 2017/18) than have actually occurred over the June
1, 2016 through May 31, 2017 time‐frame (i.e., in “old crop” MY 2016/17).
U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index & Global Wheat Prices
Since 1973 the monthly average trade‐weighted index value of the U.S. dollar relative to the currencies
of major U.S. trading partner countries has averaged 94.3604 with a median value of 93.4719 – indicating
some positive skewness in U.S. dollar index values (i.e., a few higher values pulling up the average) (Figure 3).
The historic low in the U.S. dollar trade weighted index since 1973 was 69.0639 – occurring in August 2011.
The historic high of 143.9059 occurred in March 1985 – coinciding with the U.S. farm crisis period. Since
January 1973 the U.S. dollar index has declined on average at a rate of ‐0.0580 per month …
Executive Summary
Department of Agricultural Economics Department of AgriculturalEconomics
kherbel@ksu.edu dikemanm@ksu.edu … important in the current economic, and production, risk environment …
February 16, 2014
Land Leasing
Forms
payment will approximate the economic
depreciation during the … developed to help evaluate
the economic consequences of leasing … Leasing In Agriculture:
An Economic Analysis.” North Central …
March 1, 2009
Animal Well-Being
Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics
Michigan State University
State-Wide …
January 1, 2002
Basis
Agricultural
and Resource Economics (23) 1998:294-307.
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10/3 …
January 1, 1999
Price Risk Management
Risk
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
Origin of Futures
Trading
Futures …
January 1, 1998
Price Risk Management
Risk
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
Cash Marketing
Basis is …