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June 18, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
“New crop” DEC 2014 corn futures contract prices also responded in a volatile and ultimately negative
manner to the information in the June 11th USDA reports. On the day of the report CBOT DEC 2014 corn
futures prices opened at $4.45 per bushel, and traded as high as $4.48 ½ and as low as $4.39 during the
session, before settling at $4.41 ¾ – down $0.03 ¼ for the day (Figure 1). Since then DEC 2014 corn futures
JULY 2014 CME eCorn Futures
Oct. 17, 2013 – June 17, 2014
Close = $4.38 ¾ on 6/17/2014
DEC 2014 CME eCorn Futures
Oct. 17, 2013 – June 17, 2014
Close = $4.39 ½ on 6/17/2014
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prices have traded first higher and then lower – ranging from a high of $4.49 ¾ on Friday, June 13th to a low of
$4.36 ½ on Tuesday, June 17th before closing at $4.39 ½ on the same day.
I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand
U.S. Corn Acreage, Yield & Production
The USDA left unchanged its projection of 2014 U.S. corn planted and harvested acreage, U.S. average
yield, and U.S. corn production. Updated estimates of U.S. corn planted and harvested acreage will be given in
the USDA NASS Acreage report to be released on Monday, June 30, 2014. Any changes in projected U.S. corn
acreage will likely be included in the upcoming July 11th World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
Report.
Following the results of March 31st USDA NASS Prospective Plantings Report, the USDA projected that
2014 U.S. corn total planted acreage would be 91.691 million acres (ma), down from 95.365 ma in 2013,
97.155 ma in 2012, and 91.936 ma in 2011 (Table 1 and Figures 1‐2). No adjustments have been made in this
projection in the April‐May‐June USDA Crop Production or WASDE reports. In addition, the USDA projected
2014 U.S. corn harvested acreage to be 84.3 ma, down from 87.668 ma in 2013, and 87.365 ma in 2012, but up
from 81.446 ma in 2011.
The forecast 2014 proportion of harvested‐to‐planted acreage for all U.S. corn is projected to be 91.9%,
equal to 2013, but up from 89.9% in 2012 and 91.4% in 2011. The U.S. average and median (i.e., the 50th
percentile or “middle”) corn percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage over the years of 2000‐2013 has been
91.0% and 91.2% , with a high of 92.4% in 2010 and a low of 87.9% in 2002. Using the 2000‐2013 average
percent harvested‐to‐planted acreage proportion of 0.91 would lead to a projection of U.S. 2014 harvested
acres of 83.439 million acres – approximately 860,200 acres less than the USDA’s projection of 84.3 million
acres harvested.
The projected 2014 U.S. average corn yield of 165.3 bushels per acre (bu/ac) would be a record high, up
from 158.8 bu/ac in 2013, the drought affected 2012 yield of 123.4 bu/ac., and the historic high of 164.7 bu/ac
in 2009 (Table 1 and Figure 3). Based on these 2014 acreage and yield forecasts, the USDA projected 2014
U.S. corn production to be a record high 13.935 billion bushels (bb) – which is up marginally from 13.925 bb in
2013, 10.780 bb in 2012, 12.360 bb in 2011, 12.447 in 2010, and 13.092 bb in 2009and (Table 1).
U.S. Corn Total Supplies
The USDA estimates that total supplies of U.S. corn for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are 15.111 bb – resulting
from beginning stocks of 1.146 bb, projected 2014 production of 13.935 bb, and projected imports of 30 mb
(Table 1). Total supplies of 15.111 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 would be a record high, comparable to
14.362 bb in MY 2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09, 14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd largest), 14.182 bb in MY
2010/11 (4th largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.932 bb in MY 2012/13, and 14.781 bb in “current year” MY
2013/14. Beginning stocks of 1.146 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are up sharply from 821 mb in “current
year” MY 2013/14, and are comparable to the low of 426 mb occurring in MY 1996/97.
U.S. Corn Use by Category & Total Use
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.050 bb in
“new crop” MY 2014/15 is equal to 5.050 bb in “current year” MY 2013/14, while being up from 4.648 bb in
MY 2012/13, and 5.000 bb in MY 2011/12. Figure 5 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel
Page | 4
ethanol as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of
corn use developed by Kansas State University. Assuming 2.75 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn,
these calculations indicate that the equivalent projected annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production
for “current” MY 2013/14 has ranged from 4.638‐5.262 bb on a weekly basis since early September 2013 ‐ the
beginning of the “current” 2013/14 marketing year.
Over the period of from September 1, 2013 through May 2, 2014, corn usage for ethanol production has
been on pace to reach 5.027 bb in “current” MY 2013/14, with the period of June 7th through August 31st yet to
occur. This estimate of 5.027 bb is less than the USDA’s June 2014 WASDE report estimate of 5.050 bb of corn
to be used for ethanol production during “current” MY 2013/14.
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is provided in Figure 6 – which shows estimated a) DDGS
corn equivalent U.S. domestic livestock feeding, and b) DDGS exports as well as other categories of U.S. corn
usage since MY 1989/90.
This analysis assumes 16.00 pounds of distillers dried grains and solubles (DDGS) per 56 pound bushel of
corn used in ethanol production – following from recent ethanol industry surveys. By these estimates since
MY 2010/11, approximately 1.05‐1.14 bb of U.S. corn equivalent bushel‐weights of DDGS are projected either
to have already been or are to be fed to U.S. livestock during each marketing year– i.e., 1.108 bb in DDGS corn‐
weight equivalents in MY 2010/11, 1.130 bb in MY 2011/12, 1.051 bb in MY 2012/13, and 1.142 bb projected
for “current” MY 2013/14 and in “new crop” MY 2014/15. Over the same five most recent marketing years,
DDGS exports in corn equivalent weights are estimated to range from 277 to 326 mb, with approximately 301
bb of DDGS‐corn equivalents in the two most recent U.S. corn marketing years.
U.S. Corn Exports: Projected U.S. corn exports of 1.700 in “new crop” MY 2014/15 are down from the
estimate of 1.900 bb in “current year” MY 2013/14, but up sharply from 731 mb in MY 2012/13 – the 40 year
low since MY 1975/76. As of June 5th, with 40 of 52 weeks (76.9%) of “current” MY 2013/14 complete, 1.372
bb of U.S. corn had been shipped for export – equal to 72.2% of the USDA’s updated projection for “current”
MY 2013/14 of 1.900 bb. An additional 460 mb of U.S. corn had been sold for future export sales in “current”
2013/14 marketing year – prior to August 31, 2014 (the end of “current” MY 2013/14).
Adding together 1.372 bb in past shipments plus 460 mb in forward sales amounts to 1.832 bb, or 96.4% of
the USDA’s 1.900 bb U.S. corn export target for “current” MY 2013/14 in the June 11th USDA WASDE report
with 76.9% (40/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed. The strong pace of combined shipments and
sales motivated the USDA to increase its U.S. corn export projection by 150 mb from 1.750 bb to 1.900 bb back
in the May 9th WASDE report.
Non‐Ethanol FSI: Forecast non‐ethanol food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of 1.385 bb in “new crop” MY
2014/15 is equal to 1.385 bb in “current year” MY 2013/14, and compares to 1.403 bb in “last year’s” MY
2012/13, and 1.428 bb in MY 2011/12.
Feed and Residual Use: Forecast U.S. feed and residual use of 5.250 bb in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is down
50 mb from 5.300 bb for “current” MY 2013/14, and up from 4.329 bb in MY 2012/13. These levels of corn use
for livestock feeding are somewhat correlated with the amounts of energy feeds per grain consuming animal
units over the same time period.
In its June Feed Outlook Report (http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/fds‐feed‐outlook/fds‐14e.aspx)
the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) indicates that over the MY 2012/13 through “new crop” MY
Page | 5
2014/15 time period, the total amount of Energy Feeds in the U.S. – including corn, sorghum, barley, oats and
wheat – was estimated to be 125.7 million metric tons (mmt) in MY 2012/13 (87.5% corn), 141.4 mmt in
“current” MY 2013/14 (95.2% corn), and 142.5 mmt in “new crop” MY 2014/15 (93.6% corn). Over this same
three year period, total U.S. Grain Consuming Animal Units were estimated to be 91.8 million in MY 2012/13,
89.7 million in “current” MY 2013/14, and 90.1 million in “new crop” MY 2014/15.
As a result, U.S. Energy Feeds per Grain Consuming Animal Unit was 1.369 metric tons per animal unit
(mt/au) in MY 2012/13, and is estimated to be 1.576 mt/au in “current” MY 2013/14, and 1.582 mt/au in “new
crop” MY 2014/15. As the availability of feed grain and other energy feeds has increased or is expected to
increase from the drought stricken “short crop” year of MY 2012/13 to “current” MY 2013/14, and into “new
crop” MY 2014/15, the amount of energy feeds fed per animal unit and total feed use of U.S. corn has and is
expected to also increase.
Total Use of U.S. Corn for “new crop” MY 2014/15 is projected to be 13.385 bb – down from the record
high of 13.635 bb in “current” MY 2013/14, but up from 11.111 bb in drought affected MY 2012/13 (Table 1
and Figures 4 & 6). United States’ total corn use has varied based on available U.S. corn supplies in recent
years, trending from 12.737 bb in MY 2007/08, 12.056 bb in MY 2008/09, 13.066 bb in MY 2009/10 (3rd
highest), 13.055 bb in MY 2010/11 (4th highest), 12.528 bb in MY 2011/12, 11.111 bb in MY 2012/13, the
record high of 13.635 bb in “current” MY 2013/14, and the projected amount of 13.385 bb in “new crop” MY
2014/15 (2nd highest).
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks‐to‐Use, & Prices
U.S. corn ending stocks for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be 1.726 bb, up from 1.146 bb in
“current year” MY 2013/14 (Table 1 & Figure 4). “Current” MY 2013/14 U.S. corn ending stocks of 1.146 bb
are less than 1.673 bb of U.S. corn ending stocks for MY 2008/09, and 1.708 bb in MY 2009/10 – but at least
marginally larger than the recent down‐trending ending stocks figures of 1.128 bb in MY 2010/11, 989 mb in
MY 2011/12, and 821 mb in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13.
Projected percent (%) ending stocks‐to‐use of 12.9% in “new crop” MY 2014/15 is up significantly from
8.4% in “current” MY 2013/14 (Table 1 & Figures 7‐8). United States’ corn % ending stocks‐to‐use declined
from 13.9% in MY 2008/09, to 13.1% in MY 2009/10, 8.6% in MY 2010/11, 7.9% in MY 2011/12, 7.4% in
“drought stricken” MY 2012/13, before increasing for the first time in six (6) years to 8.4% in “current” MY
2013/14, and now to a projected level of 12.9% in “new crop” MY 2014/15.
U.S. average corn prices for “new crop” MY 2014/15 are projected to be $3.85‐$4.55 bu/ac (midpoint =
$4.20) (Table 1 & Figures 9‐10). Since the beginning of the rapid expansion in U.S. ethanol production in 2006,
U.S. corn prices have moved higher, then lower and higher again, from $3.04 /bu in MY 2006/07, to $4.20 in
MY 2007/08, $4.06 in MY 2008/09, $3.55 in MY 2009/10, $5.18 in MY 2010/11, $6.22 in MY 2011/12, up to the
record high of $6.89 in “drought stricken” MY 2012/13. But if the June 11th WASDE projection holds true,
prices will now have declined for two consecutive years since the $6.89 record high in MY 2012/13, down to
$4.45‐$4.65 (midpoint = $4.55) in “current” MY 2013/14, and again to $3.85‐$4.55 (midpoint = $4.20) in “new
crop” MY 2014/15. The USDA’s price projection for “current” MY 2013/14 is down from $4.50‐$4.80 (midpoint
= $4.65 in May 2014).
Page | 6
I‐D. KSU U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand Scenarios for “New Crop” MY 2014/15
There seems to be a tendency for early season forecasts by both the USDA and University grain market
economists to project full production scenarios. Looking back, a combination of drought, excessive moisture,
and resulting poor crop development conditions lead to lower than originally expected U.S. corn production in
2010, 2011, and 2012. And although the 2013 U.S. corn crop has ended up being record large, still it is
markedly lower than original early 2013 production forecast of 14.5+ bb.
Projections for 2014 U.S. corn production by the USDA and Kansas State University may very well follow
this same pattern of being overly optimistic – implicitly discounting the possibility of 2014 U.S. corn crop
production problems. For example, KSU forecasts provided here are decidedly conservative in terms of
projected U …
March 19, 2014
Grain Market Outlook
I‐C. U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand for the “Current” 2013/14 Marketing Year
U.S. Corn 2013 Acres, Yield & Production
The USDA again left unchanged its projection of 2013 U.S. corn production of 13.925 billion bushels (bb),
up from a drought‐affected short crop of 10.780 bb in 2012. This USDA projection is based on record high
planted acreage of 95.365 million acres (ma), and harvested acreage of 87.668 ma (Table 1 and Figure 2). The
USDA also maintained its projection of an average U.S. corn yield of 158.8 bushels per acre (bu/ac). The
January‐March USDA 2014 projection of 158.8 bu/ac in average 2013 U.S. corn yields is down from the USDA’s
projection at the February 22, 2013 USDA Outlook Forum of 163.6 bu/ac (Table 1 and Figure 3).
Projected 2013 U.S. corn production of 13.925 bb remains a record high, being up 3.145 bb ( 29%) from
10.780 bb in 2012, and up 13% from 12.360 bb in 2011 (Table 1). If further changes are eventually made by
the USDA in its projection of 2013 U.S. corn production, they are unlikely to occur until the 2014 Crop
Production Summary is released in January 2015 if the USDA follows its usual procedures.
U.S. Corn Total Supplies in “Current” MY 2013/14
The USDA estimates that total supplies of U.S. corn for “current” MY 2013/14 are 14.781 bb – resulting
from beginning stocks of 821 mb, projected 2013 production of 13.925 bb, and projected imports of 35 mb
(Table 1). Total supplies of 14.781 bb in MY 2013/14 would be a record high, comparable to 14.362 bb in MY
2007/08, 13.729 bb in MY 2008/09, 14.774 bb in MY 2009/10 (2nd largest), 14.182 bb in MY 2010/11 (3rd
largest), 13.517 bb in MY 2011/12, and 11.932 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13. Beginning stocks of 821 mb are
the lowest since 426 mb in MY 1996/97, and substantiate the tightness of U.S. corn supplies during June‐
August 2013.
U.S. Corn Total Use & Use by Category in “Current” MY 2013/14
Total Use of U.S. Corn for “current” MY 2013/14 is projected to be 13.325 bb – up 25 mb from February,
up 175 from January, up 275 mb from the December WASDE, and up 375 mb from November, while being up
19.9% from 11.111 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13 (Table 1 and Figures 4 & 6). United States’ total corn use of
13.325 bb in “current” MY 2013/14 would be the highest on record, comparable to 12.737 bb in MY 2007/08
(4th highest), 12.056 bb in MY 2008/09, 13.066 bb in MY 2009/10 (2nd highest), 13.055 bb in MY 2010/11 (3rd
highest), 12.528 bb in MY 2011/12, and 11.111 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13.
U.S. Ethanol Production and Corn Usage: Projected U.S. corn use for ethanol production of 5.000 bb in
“current” MY 2013/14 is up from 4.648 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, while being equal to 5.000 bb in MY
MAY 2014 CME eCorn Futures
July 18, 2013 – March 18, 2014
Close of $4.86 ¼ on Fri., March 18th
December 2014 CME eCorn Futures
July 18, 2013 – March 18, 2014
Close of $4.87 ¾ on Fri., March 18th
Page | 4
2011/12. Figure 5 shows weekly U.S. oxygenated plant production of fuel ethanol as reported by the U.S.
Energy Information Administration (www.eia.gov) with a calculated estimate of corn use developed by Kansas
State University. Assuming 2.75 gallons of ethanol produced per bushel of corn, these calculations indicate
that the equivalent projected annual rate of U.S. corn used for ethanol production for “current” MY 2013/14
has ranged from 4.637‐5.262 bb on a weekly basis since early September 2013 ‐ the beginning of the “current”
2013/14 marketing year – averaging a projection of 4.993 bb for “current” MY 2013/14 over the September
2013 – March 7, 2014 time period. This projection of 4.993 bb is consistent to USDA’s March 2014 WASDE
report estimate of 5.000 bb of corn to be used for ethanol production during “current” MY 2013/14.
U.S. Corn Use as Distillers Grains: An estimate of the U.S. corn equivalent amounts of distillers grains
(DDGS) use for direct livestock feeding and exports is provided in Figure 6 – which shows estimated a) DDGS
corn equivalent U.S. domestic livestock feeding, and b) DDGS exports as well as other categories of U.S. corn
usage since MY 1989/90.
This analysis assumes 16.00 pounds of distillers dried grains and solubles (DDGS) per 56 pound bushel of
corn used in ethanol production – following from recent ethanol industry surveys. By these estimates since
MY 2010/11, approximately 1.05‐1.13 bb of U.S. corn equivalent bushel‐weights of DDGS are projected either
to have been or are to be fed to U.S. livestock during each marketing year– i.e., 1.108 bb in DDGS corn‐weight
equivalents in MY 2010/11, 1.130 bb DDGS corn‐weight equivalents in MY 2011/12, 1.051 bb in MY 2012/13,
and 1.130 bb projected for “current” MY 2013/14. Over the same four most recent marketing years, DDGS
exports in corn equivalent weights are estimated to range from 277 to 326 mb.
U.S. Corn Exports: Projected U.S. corn exports of 1.625 in “current” MY 2013/14 are up 25 million bushels
(mb) from February, up 175 mb from January, and up 122.2% from 731 mb a year ago in MY 2012/13 – the 39
year low since MY 1975/76. As of March 6st, with 31 of 52 weeks (59.6%) of “current” MY 2013/14 complete,
757.5 mb of U.S. corn had been shipped for export – equal to 46.6% of the USDA’s updated projection for
“current” MY 2013/14 of 1.625 bb. An additional 746.7 mb of U.S. corn had been sold for future export sales
in “current” 2013/14 marketing year.
Adding together 757.5 mb in past shipments plus 746.7 mb in forward sales amounts to 1.504 bb, or 92.6%
of the USDA’s 1.625 bb U.S. corn export target for “current” MY 2013/14 in the March 10th USDA WASDE
report with 59.6% (31/52 weeks) of the marketing year completed. The strong pace of combined shipments
and sales motivated the USDA to increase its U.S. corn export projection by 25 mb to 1.625 bb in the March
10th WASDE report.
Non‐Ethanol FSI: Forecast non‐ethanol food, seed and industrial (FSI) use of 1.400 bb in “current” MY
2013/14 compares to 1.396 bb in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, and 1.428 bb in MY 2011/12.
Feed and Residual Use: Forecast U.S. feed and residual use of 5.300 bb for “current” MY 2013/14 is
unchanged from January‐February, but up 100 mb from November‐December and up 200 mb from August‐
September WASDE projections. Feed and residual use of 5.300 bb is up 22.3% from 4.335 bb in “last year’s”
MY 2012/13, while being up 16.3% from 4.557 bb in MY 2011/12.
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks, % Ending Stocks‐to‐Use, & Prices in “Current” MY 2013/14
U.S. corn ending stocks for “current” MY 2013/14 are projected to be 1.456 bb, down 25 mb from
February, down 175 mb from January, down 336 mb from December, and down 431 mb from November 2013.
However, the March 2014 projection of 1.456 bb is still up 635 mb (+77%) from 821 mb ending stocks in “last
year’s” MY 2012/13 (Table 1 & Figure 4). “Current” MY 2013/14 U.S. corn ending stocks of 1.456 bb are
comparable to 1.673 bb of U.S. corn ending stocks for MY 2008/09, and 1.708 bb in MY 2009/10 – and above
the recent down‐trending ending stocks of 1.128 bb in MY 2010/11, 989 mb in MY 2011/12, and 821 mb in MY
2012/13.
Page | 5
Projected percent (%) ending stocks‐to‐use of 10.9% in “current” MY 2013/14 is down from the February
WASDE projection of 11.1%, from 12.4% in January, the December 2013 WASDE projection of 13.7%, and also
down from the September‐November 2013 forecasts of 14.6%‐14.7%. However, the March 2014 projection of
10.9% S/U for “current” MY 2013/14 is still up significantly from 7.4% in “last year’s” MY 2012/13 (Table 1 &
Figures 7‐8). United States’ corn % ending stocks‐to‐use declined from 13.9% in MY 2008/09, to 13.1% in MY
2009/10, 8.6% in MY 2010/11, 7.9% in MY 2011/12, and 7.4% in “last year’s” MY 2012/13, before being
projected now for the first time in five (5) years to increase to 10.9% in “current” MY 2013/14.
U.S. average corn prices for “current” MY 2013/14 are projected to be $4.25‐$4.75 bu/ac (midpoint =
$4.50) – narrowing $0.05 on both ends of the range from February, but down from the record high of $6.89
/bu in “last year’s” MY 2012/13 (Table 1 & Figures 9‐10). Since the beginning of the rapid expansion in U.S.
ethanol production in 2006, U.S. corn prices have moved higher, then lower and higher again, from $3.04 /bu
in MY 2006/07, to $4.20 in MY 2007/08, $4.06 in MY 2008/09, $3.55 in MY 2009/10, $5.18 in MY 2010/11,
$6.22 in MY 2011/12, up to the record high of $6.89 in “last year’s” MY 2012/13 – with a decline now forecast
to the price range midpoint projection of $4.50 in “current” MY 2013/14.
I‐E. USDA and KSU U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand Scenarios for “Next Crop” MY 2014/15
There seems to be a tendency for early season forecasts by both the USDA and University grain market
economists to project full production scenarios. This has been especially true since the winter of 2010 during
which time preseason U.S. pre‐season corn production forecasts have been markedly larger than what final
U.S. corn crop production totals have ended up as each year. A combination of drought and poor crop
development conditions lead to lower than originally expected U.S. corn production in 2010, 2011, and 2012.
And although the 2013 U.S. corn crop has ended up being record large, still it is markedly lower than original
early 2013 production forecast of 14.5+ bb.
Projections for 2014 U.S. corn production by the USDA and Kansas State University may very well follow
this same pattern of being overly optimistic – implicitly discounting the possibility of 2014 U.S. corn crop
production problems. For example, KSU forecasts provided here are decidedly conservative in terms of
projected U …