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May 26, 2022
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Ferry
Ports of the Danube
Railway
AutoSource: *the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine
Ukrainian export … 1
Source: *the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine
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Source: *the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine
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Corn …
August 31, 2016
Grain Market Outlook
… gy, and other
commodity markets – such as unanticipated U.S. financial policy announcements by the U.S. Federal Reserve
affecting U.S. interest rates, or geo‐political events that could “shock” World energy markets.
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: With USDA projections of 2016 U.S. corn
plantings of 94.148 ma (up 6.149 ma from 2015), harvested acres of 86.550 ma (up 5.801 ma from 2015),
record high projected yields of 175.1 bu/ac (vs 168.4 bu/ac in 2015 and the current record high of 171.0 bu/ac
in 2014), 2016 U.S. corn production is forecast to be a record high 15.153 bb – up from 13.601 bb in 2015, the
current record of 14.216 bb in 2014, and 13.829 bb in 2013.
With forecast “new crop” MY 2016/17 total supplies of 16.909 bb (record high), total use of 14.500 bb (record
high), and projected ending stocks of 2.409 bb (16.61% S/U) – up from 1.706 bb (12.46% S/U) in “old crop” MY
2015/16 and the highest since 4.259 bb (54.90% S/U) in MY 2004/05 – U.S. corn prices are projected by the
USDA to be in the range of $2.85‐$3.45 (midpoint = $3.15 /bu) – being down from the $3.60 /bu midpoint
estimate for “current” MY 2015/16. This scenario is given a 20% likelihood of occurring by KSU.
KSU Forecasts for “New Crop” MY 2016/17: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐demand and
prices are presented for “new crop” MY 2016/17, with each assuming a lower U.S. corn yields and production
than the August 12th USDA WASDE report.
Page | 2
KSU Scenario A) “Minor Crop Problems – 14.9 bb” Scenario (35% probability) assumes: 94.148 ma planted,
86.550 ma harvested, 172.0 bu/ac yield, 14.887 bb production, 16.743 bb total supplies, 14.450 bb total use,
2.293 bb ending stocks, 15.87% S/U, & $3.25 /bu U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY 2016/17;
KSU Scenario B) “Moderate Crop Problems – 14.5 bb” Scenario (35% probability) assumes: 94.148 ma
planted, 86.550 ma harvested, 168.0 bu/ac yield, 14.540 bb production, 16.396 bb total supplies, 14.344 bb
total use, 2.052 bb ending stocks, 14.31% S/U, & $3.45 /bu U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY
2016/17;
KSU Scenario C) “More Serious Crop Problems – 14.2 bb” Scenario (10% probability) assumes: 94.148 ma
planted, 86.550 ma harvested, 164.0 bu/ac yield, 14.194 bb production, 16.137 bb total supplies, 14.239 bb
total use, 1.898 bb ending stocks, 13.33% S/U, & $3.60 /bu U.S. corn average price for “new crop” MY
2016/17;
World Corn Supply‐Demand: World corn production of 1,028.4 million metric tons (mmt) is projected for “new
crop” MY 2016/17, up from 959.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,013.6 mmt in MY 2014/15.
World corn total supplies of 1,237.7 mmt are projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 1,170.0 mmt in
“old crop” MY 2015/16, and up from 1,188.9 mmt in MY 2014/15. World corn exports of 137.25 mmt are
projected for “new crop” MY 2016/17, up from 119.7 mmt in “old crop” MY 2015/16, but down from 141.7
mmt in MY 2014/15. Projected World corn ending stocks of 220.8 mmt (21.7% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17
are up from 209.3 mmt (21.9% S/U) in “old crop” MY 2015/16, and from 208.3 mmt (21.2% S/U) in MY
2014/15.
Brazilian corn production in MY 2015/16 (produced in early‐mid 2016) is estimated to be 68.5 mmt, down 16.5
mmt (down 19.5%) from MY 2014/15. This shortfall in Brazilian corn production in 2016 has provided some
support for U.S. corn exports and even ethanol production (via exports). But expectations of a record large
2016 U.S. corn crop have had a predominant negative impact on U.S. corn prices. Brazilian corn production is
forecast by the USDA to rebound back to 80 mmt in MY 2016/17 (2017 production).
…
March 2, 2017
Grain Market Outlook
e following. First, the pace and timing of
U.S. farmer marketing of the 2016 corn crop – much of which had been placed in storage after fall harvest and
likely has been held for sale through the winter into at least early spring 2017. Second, anticipation of
continued strong use of 2016 crop U.S. corn for domestic U.S. ethanol production and livestock feeding
through spring‐summer 2017. Third, at least moderate continued strength in U.S. corn exports – driven partly
by the availability of exportable corn supplies from South America through spring 2017. And fourth, the
always present possibility of broader U.S. and Foreign economic and/or financial system disruptions that could
impact grain, energy, and other commodity markets in 2017. World geo‐political events could provide an
unanticipated “shock” to U.S. and World energy and grain markets – with the impact on the direction of U.S.
and World corn markets being difficult to anticipate.
USDA Supply‐Demand Forecast for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18. With early USDA projections of 2017 U.S. corn
plantings of 90.000 million acres or ‘ma’ (down 4.004 ma), harvested acres of 82.400 ma (down 4.348 ma),
projected yields of 170.7 bu/ac (vs the record high of 174.6 in 2016), 2017 U.S. corn production is forecast to
be 14.065 bb – down from the record high of 15.148 bb in 2016.
The USDA forecast “next crop” MY 2017/18 total supplies of 16.435 bb – down 505 mb from last year’s record
high). Total use is forecast at 14.220 bb – down 400 mb from last year’s record high. Ending stocks are
projected to be 2.215 bb (15.58% S/U) – down from 2.320 bb (15.87% S/U) in “current” MY 2016/17. United
States’ corn prices are projected by the USDA to average $3.50 /bu – up from a midpoint estimate of $3.40 /bu
from a year ago – but within the range of $3.20‐$3.60 /bu for “current” MY 2016/17. This scenario is given a
55% likelihood of occurring by KSU Extension Ag Economist D. O’Brien.
Alternative KSU Forecasts for “Next Crop” MY 2017/18: Three alternative KSU‐Scenarios for U.S. corn supply‐
demand and prices are presented for “next crop” MY 2017/18. Each forecast scenario presents the likelihood
Page | 2
of alternative, lower U.S. corn yields and production than projected by the USDA in the February 23‐24, 2017
Agricultural Outlook Forum for “next crop” MY 2017/18.
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #1) “167.3 bu/ac – 13.786 bb” Scenario (25% probability) assumes:
90.000 ma planted, 82.400 ma harvested, 167.3 bu/ac trend yield, 13.786 bb production, 16.156 bb total
supplies, 14.185 bb total use, 1.971 bb ending stocks, 13.89% S/U, & $3.65 /bu U.S. corn average price for
“next crop” MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #2) “165.0 bu/ac – 13.596 bb” Scenario (15% probability) assumes:
90.000 ma planted, 82.400 ma harvested, 165.0 bu/ac yield, 13.596 bb production, 15.966 bb total supplies,
14.080 bb total use, 1.886 bb ending stocks, 13.39% S/U, & $3.70 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop”
MY 2017/18;
KSU “Next Crop” MY 2017/18 Scenario #3) “150.0 bu/ac – 12.360 bb” Scenario (5% probability) assumes:
90.000 ma planted, 82.300 ma harvested, 150.0 bu/ac yield, 12.3605 bb production, 14.680 bb total supplies,
13.460 bb total use, 1.220 bb ending stocks, 8.92% S/U, & $4.55 /bu U.S. corn average price for “next crop” MY
2017/18;
World Corn Supply‐Demand: Record high World corn production of 1,040.2 million metric tons (mmt) is
projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 8.3% from 960.7 mmt in MY 2015/16, and up 2.4% from 1,015.6 mmt
in MY 2014/15. Record high World corn total supplies of 1,250.6 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17,
up from 1,170.5 mmt in MY 2015/16, and from 1,190.3 mmt in MY 2014/15.
World corn exports of 149.0 mmt are projected for “current” MY 2016/17, up 23.0% from 121.1 mmt in MY
2015/16, and up 4.8% from 142.2 mmt in MY 2014/15. Projected record high World corn ending stocks of
217.6 mmt (21.1% S/U) in “new crop” MY 2016/17 are up from 210.4 mmt (21.9% S/U) in MY 2015/16, and
from 209.8 mmt (21.4% S/U) in MY 2014/15.
Although World corn ending stocks are projected to be a record high in “current” MY 2016/17 at 217.6 mmt,
World corn percent ending stocks‐to‐use are forecast to actually decline marginally to 21.1%. Strong World
demand for corn at low prices is expected to continue – especially in the United States, Argentina, Mexico,
Southeast Asia, China, Ukraine, and other Former Soviet Union countries (less Ukraine). Ongoing, strong
demand could cause sharply increased corn market volatility in the summer of 2017 IF any threats to the 2017
U.S. crop emerge.
…
June 7, 2017
KFMA Research
will try to get a second
policy for their spouse and divide … insurance.
If public policy were to eliminate the HPO … or
feed those bushels to livestock; i.e. selling their corn …
January 1, 1999
Price Risk Management
price. The volume of grain or
livestock covered by a futures contract … useful when marketing grain or
livestock because they can be used … Extension Service
It is the policy of Kansas State University …
July 20, 2015
Animal Health
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/AnimalHealth/FMD_Vaccination.pdf
Introduction … animal
health officials and policy makers concerning alternate … study region was comprised of livestock in KS, NE, CO, SD, WY,
northern …
Price Risk Publications
price. The volume of grain or
livestock covered by a futures contract … useful when marketing grain or
livestock because they can be used … Extension Service
It is the policy of Kansas State University …
August 1, 2017
Breakout Sessions
was raised on a grain and livestock farm in south central
Nebraska … have affected state’s livestock feed markets. Future prospects … discussion of
U.S. energy policy directions and their likely …
October 15, 2018
2018 Crop Insurance Workshop Presentations
B/yr over 2019-2023
EQIP livestock share of 60%
CSP up to 10 … over 2019-23
Eliminates EQIP livestock share
Reduces EQIP authority … over 2019-23
Reduces EQIP livestock share to 55%
Reduces CSP …
September 15, 2021
Fed Cattle Pricing
Government determination or policy. The authors acknowledge … market participants and
policy makers about industry structure … manage
risk; and inform policy and regulatory deliberations …