Risk and Profit Conference

2023 Breakout Sessions [Topics marked (***) are also online from August 21-25]

In-Person Schedule

Online Schedule

***1. Domestic, Absentee, and Foreign Ownership of Kansas Agricultural Land

Robin Reid

Ownership of Kansas agricultural land has been changing over time as land changes hands due to sales or inheritance.  Research has been conducted to study where landowners are located in relation to the land they own, and how this has been changing in recent years.  As the baby-boomer generation of farmers is currently transitioning their land, ownership of Kansas land outside of the state is increasing.  Foreign investment into agricultural land in Kansas will also be specifically focused on, with recent attention to this issue because of international tensions.

***2. Kansas Farmland Turnover Trends

Jenny Ifft, Alan Hinds

Farmland markets are widely considered to have low turnover, but analysis of turnover rates and determinants in Kansas and the U.S. is limited. In this study, we use Kansas farmland turnover data from 1985 to analyze trends in turnover over time and regionally. We also use statistical models to analyze the degree to which turnover is associated with (1) commodity prices and farm income, (2) macroeconomic conditions and local nonfarm income, and (3) farm demographics. 

***3. Ag Production, Trade and Stocks in the Context of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Antonina Broyaka

Ukraine was always known as the world’s “breadbasket”. Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused not only humanitarian, economic, and ecological crises in the country, but also increased food insecurity globally. In addition, the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric station has caused irreparable damage, not only to Ukrainian lands, but also to all the countries of the Black Sea basin. All of this has disrupted logistics channels, increased inputs costs, and created an insufficient supply of fertilizers. The mining of a significant number of territories has also led to a reduction in production and, as a consequence, a reduction in the exports of Ukrainian agricultural products. This has directly affected the structure of the world ag markets and provoked food inflation. Despite the sanctions, Russia is trying to seize leadership in the world grain and sunflower oil markets, thereby increasing its political influence on import-dependent countries. The lifting of the ban on the export of agricultural products to five European countries, as well as the extending and uninterrupted execution of the Black Sea Grain Initiative are currently important prerequisites for the stability of world grain markets.

***4. Agricultural Finance Situation

Allen Feathestone

The current agricultural finance situation will be discussed. The net farm income from 2022 fell by roughly 50% from the record high that occurred in 2021.  Information will be provided on past, recent, and future developments regarding the agricultural finance situation with information on the income situation, the financial health of farm operations, and land market trends throughout the U.S.

***5. Drought and Farm Management - Recent Research Findings

Jenny Ifft

Kansas producers are no strangers to drought and the past two years have been particularly difficult. This presentation will share the findings of how drought or extreme heat impacts farm management and profitability in three key areas: (1) Hay prices; (2) Farm income; and (3) Farm lending structure.  The first study looks in-depth at the relationship between drought and hay prices across several state and within the region (districts in Colorado, Kansas, and Texas). The second study considers the impact of extreme heat on Kansas farm income. The third study considers how lender choice is influenced by extreme heat.

6. Farm Bill Conservation Programs

Nathan Hendricks, Micah Cameron-Harp

This session will discuss issues related to programs in the conservation title (Title II) of the Farm Bill. We will also discuss funding for conservation programs through the Inflation Reduction Act and how this will affect funding for different programs over time. The session will examine how much funding has historically been spent on each program in Title II and each practice. We will also examine the evolution of CRP over time and the changes in general sign-up acres. There will also be a discussion about what changes in Title II could occur in the next Farm Bill.

7. Analysis of ARC, PLC, and SCO payouts for Kansas Producers from 2015-2022

Sylvanus Gaku, Jenny Ifft, Francis Tsiboe, Robin Reid

There are several tools available to help producers compare the likelihood of ARC (Agricultural Risk Coverage) and PLC (Price Loss Coverage) payouts. If a producer selects PLC, they also have the option to purchase Supplement Coverage Option (SCO) insurance as an endorsement to their underlying crop insurance policy. SCO use, although low, has been increasing in Kansas and there will likely be substantial payouts for many producers in 2022.  This presentation will show the results of an analysis of hypothetical historical payouts for ARC vs. PLC/SCO for typical producers in Kansas counties, for corn, soybeans, wheat, and sorghum (when available). The presentation will conclude with a forward-looking analysis of ARC vs PLC/SCO guarantees.

***8. Macroeconomic Outlook and Interest Rates

Brian Briggeman

Rising interest rates have significantly impacted the agricultural industry. In an effort to combat rising inflation, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates at a historically rapid rate. Now, inflation has cooled somewhat, which raises various questions. Will interest rates hold steady or decrease? Is a U.S. recession still on the horizon? What are the factors that could influence these events? We will discuss these questions as well as address your questions on the future of the macroeconomy and how it could affect agriculture.

***9. Farm Expenses and Prospects for Net Farm Income Next Year

Gregg Ibendahl, Dan O'Brien

2022 saw a drop in Net Farm Income and in 2023 NFI could fall even more. This has added to the uncertainty that farmers face. Accurate predictions about net farm income could help many with their long term plans and help guide machinery and other input purchases. This session will attempt to predict Kansas net farm income for 2023 and 2024. KFMA farm data from the last several years is used to set a baseline and then projections about yields and prices are used to estimate revenue while projections about major expenses are used to estimate farm expenses. In addition to the overall net farm income projections, this presentation will also analyze expected changes to fertilizer and fuel and also provide more general guidance about other farm expenses.

10. Does Investing in New Equipment Actually Reduce Repair Costs?

Chelsea Plummer, Bob Kohman

Rising interest rates have significantly impacted the agricultural industry. In an effort to combat rising inflation, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates at a historically rapid rate. Now, inflation has cooled somewhat, which raises various questions. Will interest rates hold steady or decrease? Is a U.S. recession still on the horizon? What are the factors that could influence these events? We will discuss these questions as well as address your questions on the future of the macroeconomy and how it could affect agriculture.

***11. Transition Planning in Kansas: Learning from Experience

Ashlee Westerhold

After a year in the role of Director of the Office of Farm and Ranch Transition, Ashlee has met with over 30 families to discuss transition planning. She will go through my findings of biggest roadblocks facing Kansas farms and ranches during the transition process. She will discuss the tools used, how they have played out, and the lessons learned.  Lastly, she will discuss some of the best practices in the transition planning process and how to keep moving forward.

12. Global Livestock Production and Trade

Allen Featherstone

Trade is an important driver in Kansas farm profitability.  This session will provide a longer view on the relative importance of livestock production and trade for beef, hogs, milk, and chicken.  Understanding the current situation along with an historical context provides a framework for thinking about some of the importance of livestock trade in the future.

13. Grazing Management Plan Adoption in the Beef Industry

Dustin Pendell

This research examines the adoption of Grazing Management Practices (GMPs) and prioritization of environmental or economic objectives among U.S. cow-calf operations. Data from a 2020-2021 survey were analyzed and findings reveal regional variations in GMP adoption, with a higher likelihood among operations with less privately-owned land, a succession plan, and larger grazing lands. Younger producers and operations with smaller herd sizes tended to prioritize environmental benefits. The study provides insights for policies promoting GMP adoption and sustainability in the U.S. beef sector.

14. Economic Impacts and Sustainability of Grazing Beef Cattle in the Great Plains

Merri Beth Day, Dustin Pendell

The objective was to determine the impact of combinations of management practices on sustainability of rangelands in different ecoregions across the Great Plains. Six study sites were selected in Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Montana, and South Dakota encompassing the Flint Hills, High Plains, and Sandhills ecoregions. Twelve rangeland management scenarios were developed from combinations of stocking density (light, moderate, heavy), grazing management (continuous, rotational), and fire regime (no burn, spring burn) along with a no management scenario. Each scenario was simulated at each site using established computer models: Agricultural Policy eXtender model, Integrated Farm System Model, and economic input/output model (IMPLAN). A sustainability index was developed to encompass indicators of environmental, economic, and social sustainability pillars into a single value. Unmanaged rangelands generally had less soil, nitrogen, and phosphorus losses, although this was not consistent across ecoregions, and similar or greater soil carbon deposition than grazed rangelands. There was an interaction among stocking density, grazing management, fire regime, and ecoregion for many indicators of soil health, greenhouse gas emissions, economic activity, and human-edible nutrient conversion. The scenarios with the greatest overall sustainability index value had moderate to high index values for each of the 3 pillars (people, planet, profit). In conclusion, the response to rangeland management practices was inconsistent across ecoregions indicating the need for local evaluation of management practices to develop the most sustainable rangeland management system.

***15. International Grain Market Threats and Opportunities

Guy Allen, Dan O'Brien

Fears that U.S. soybean production may be short in fall 2023 have helped to support international grain and oilseed markets.  With August being a key month for U.S. soybean development, international markets will be focused on U.S. crop prospects through at least September 2023 for a sense of market direction.  Then their attention will switch to South American planting and crop development prospects in the last few months of the year – heading into spring.  By the release of the August 11^th USDA WASDE report, the market will have more information on U.S. and other world crop prospects to work with, but uncertainty and volatility are likely to “carry on” for the forseeable future until world grain and oilseed stocks rebuild and reduce the uncertainty and “living on the edge” situation faced across the major grains and oilseeds.

Both foreign and domestic U.S. grain markets need to be watchful for the questions that have to be answered in the August 11^th and September 12^th, 2023 USDA WASDE reports – as there is still potential for great U.S. oilseed market volatility heading into the fall of 2023 and winter-spring 2024 as South American crops develop.

16. 2023 Farm Income Tax Update

Mark Dikeman

This session will review changes related to farm income tax for 2023 as well as look at some of the income tax planning tools that agricultural producers have at their disposal.

17. Agriculture and Wildfire: Farmer Perceptions, Preparedness and Impacts

Jason Bergtold, Marcellus Caldas, Audrey Joslin, Wyatt Cheney, David Wesseler

Wildfires have become a significant concern in recent years due to increases in frequency and intensity across the U.S. While much research has been done on wildfires, there is a lack of research about wildfires on agricultural landscapes, especially in the U.S., especially in the Great Plains. The purpose of this presentation is to provide insights and observations about the interaction of wildfire and agriculture, especially farmer and ranchers’ perceptions, preparedness and experiences related to wildfire events. We hope to provide insight for agricultural producers, emergency response agencies, and policymakers about the challenges and experiences of agricultural producers during major wildfire events across the Great Plains of the U.S. based on farmer and rancher interviews and damage assessments in the southern Great Plains.

18. Predicting Corn and Soybean Yields and Total Grain Production for Kansas and the U.S.

Gregg Ibendahl

The USDA collects weekly crop conditions throughout the growing season. The crop is rated as either: very poor, poor, fair, good, or excellent. These crop condition reports can be used in a model to help forecast yields and total grain production. The advantage of this model is that producers don't have to wait for the USDA crop reports to get an estimate of yield plus the model is able to generate a confidence interval around the estimate.

***19. Uncertainty, Risk, and Strategic Alliances

Vincent Amanor-Boadu

A five-day weather forecast can be accurate about 90% of the time, a seven-day forecast about 80 percent of the time, and a 10-day forecast is only right about half the time. This is according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). What, therefore, is the likelihood of a 100-year climate projection being accurate? The best naïve answer is that 50:50, i.e., it is either accurate or it is not. Unfortunately, numerous policies have been or are being implemented as if these projections are 100% accurate. It seems the climate debate has already been won, and it is imperative for agri-food stakeholders to shift from defense into opportunity creation and profit making. In this conversation, we explore strategies that could allow agri-food sector stakeholders to thrive in the unfolding environment by creating value innovations that yield good profits.