Risk and Profit Conference
K-State Alumni Center
1720 Anderson Ave.Manhattan , KS
IN-PERSON: In-Person Schedule
Tuesday, August 16
Lunch: 11:30 am - 12:15 pm
General Session I: 12:15 pm - 1:30 pm (Via Zoom from Washington, D.C.).
"Washington Farm Policy Update"
Dr. John Newton, Chief Economist, U.S. Senate Committee Agricuture, Nutrition and Forestry
Breakout sessions: A) 1:40-2:30; B) 2:40-3:30; C) 3:40-4:30; D) 4:40-5:30.
Social and cash bar: 5:30 - 6:00 pm.
Dinner: 6:00-6:45 pm
Remarks from K-State President Richard Linton: 6:45-7:15 pm
General Session II: Conversation with a Kansas Farmer - 7:15-8:15 pm.
Heath Boy and Terry Boy, Syracuse, KS.
Wednesday, August 17
Rolls and juice: 7:45-8:15 am.
General Session III: 8:15-9:15 am. Grain Market Outlook - Daniel O'Brien
Breakout sessions: E) 9:30-10:20; F) 10:30-11:20; G) 11:30-12:20.
Lunch: 12:45 - 1:30 pm.
General Session IV: 1:30-2:45 pm.
Current Issues in the Livestock and Meat Sectors - Brian Coffey
Macroeconomy and Interest Rates - Brian Briggeman
Final wrap-up: 2:45-3:00 pm.
ONLINE: Online Schedule
Monday through Friday, August 22-26
Two live breakout sessions daily from 12:00 - 1:30 pm.
Recordings from general sessions from in-person meeting also available, as well as from these sessions.
Dr. John Newton, Chief Economist, U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry
(Ranking Member, John Boozman)
Dr. John Newton serves as Chief Economist for the United States Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition & Forestry for Ranking Member John Boozman of Arkansas. As Chief Economist, Newton is responsible for advising the Ranking Member on the economic implications of policy proposals to the agricultural, nutrition, and forestry sectors.
Newton has served agriculture in a number of capacities including with the U.S. Department of Agriculture as an agricultural economist and as a two-time award-winning faculty member at the University of Illinois. Most recently, prior to joining the committee, Dr. Newton served as the Chief Economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation. While at Farm Bureau, Newton was a lead developer of Dairy Revenue Protection, the largest federal crop insurance policy for dairy farmers. In 2021, Newton received the distinguished alumni award from The Ohio State University.
Newton is a Kentucky native and holds two Master’s degrees and a Ph.D. from The Ohio State University. Newton, his wife, and their daughter live in Washington, DC.
Dr. Richard Linton, President, Kansas State University
Dr. Richard H. Linton serves as the 15th president of Kansas State University. He holds a bachelor’s degree in biology, a master’s degree in food science and a doctorate in food science, all from Virginia Tech University. He participated in the Food Systems Leadership Institute from 2009-2011 and completed the Harvard Graduate School’s Institutional Educational Management Program in 2018.
Before coming to K-State in February 2022, Linton served as dean of the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at North Carolina State University from 2012-2022, as department chair of food science and technology at The Ohio State University from 2011-2012, and as a faculty member of the department of food science at Purdue University from 1994-2011. While at Purdue, Linton also served as the founder and director of the Center for Food Safety Engineering and as the associate director of agricultural research programs.
As dean of the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, or CALS, at NC State, Linton led a college of over 300 faculty, with more than 3,000 undergraduate students and 1,000 graduate students. Under his direction, the college developed a new strategic plan focused on building people, programs and partnerships. Collaboration with industry and government were critical to the mission of the college, and Linton’s dedication was demonstrated through the NC Plant Sciences Initiative and the NC Food Processing and Manufacturing Initiative, two endeavors that have the potential to create jobs, find solutions to global challenges in agriculture and foster support for local growers. During his tenure at NC State, competitive research for CALS reached $100 million a year and his college raised $482 million for the NC State Capital Campaign.
Linton held many important leadership roles in addition to serving as dean. He continues to serve as a member of the Food and Drug Administration’s Science Advisory Board, as well as the chair for the Binational — Israel/U.S. — Ag Research and Development Fund, a role to which he was appointed in 2018 by the U.S. secretary of agriculture. He also previously chaired the North Carolina Governor’s Task Force on Food Manufacturing and the APLU-Healthy Food Systems, Healthy People Steering Committee.
President Linton and his wife, Sally, an ADHD/executive function life coach, have two children: a daughter, Lily, and a son, Chris.
Terry and Aggie Boy | Heath and Michele Boy
Gordon and Lois Boy began farming in Hamilton County in the mid-1940s. Lois graduated from K-State in 1943. Of their four children, it was Terry that saw farming in his future. After marrying Aggie they returned to Hamilton County where he focused his efforts on farming. Aggie was his essential teammate and partner. She drove the grain truck at harvest and was a substitute teacher as well. After having their two children, Nichole and Heath, she was the ultimate farm homemaker. She enjoyed cooking and sewing her children’s clothes and her own and became heavily involved in 4-H.
Heath had farming in his blood. He knew since he was eight years old that farming was the life for him. He saved his first sale money from his 4-H swine project to purchase stock. After graduating SHS, Heath completed his degree at K-State in agricultural economics with a minor in animal science. When he returned to the farm, he picked up right where he left off. Little did he know his wife to be would be leaving New York City to choose a different way of life. Michele had worked in television news and was tired of city life. All her vacation money was spent leaving. She decided to head out and see the country. On her journey, she met a soon-to-be lifelong friend in Arizona who happened to be from Syracuse, Kansas. As she traveled around she stopped through Syracuse. She took some jobs and got involved in the community, but then was heading out of town when she met Heath. It was a Relay for Life event that brought them together. He introduced himself and they were inseparable since. They married in 2005 and their daughter Mia was born in 2011.
Today Terry and Aggie continue to farm but at a slower pace. Terry continues to serve on the First National Bank Board of Directors. Terry served over 30 years on the local Co-op board. Heath has taken over much of the management and day-to-day labor of their fieldwork and cattle operation. He serves on the Hamilton County Fair Board and the Kansas Farm Management Association. Michele works in town as the owner and editor of the Syracuse Journal, a weekly newspaper, serves on the City Council and Economic Development board. She also helps Mia get from 4-H project meetings to piano lessons to her sheep project and to basketball games.
Breakout Sessions [Topics marked (**) are also online from August 22-26]
**1. A Heterodox (Not Unorthodox) Perspective on the Unfolding Economic Environment
The economy is teetering on the brink of something we have seen, but have not seen before. Labor market is tight in the midst of a rising inflation and public policymakers and business leaders are trying to use tools they are familiar with to address a problem they have not seen before. The good news is that heterodox economics has a radical solution to situations like this – praxeology. People always do what is in their best interest, even if they miscalculate what their best interest is. This conversation seeks to provoke a dialogue about the role of government when the unfamiliar happens, drawing from lessons learned (or unlearned) from previous unfamiliar situations and how actions contributed to often unintended outcomes.
**2. Ukraine Update
The Russian aggression in Ukraine has had a great impact on the economy of Ukraine, neighboring countries and the world, especially in the grain markets. The significant reduction of the grain harvest in Ukraine and the limitation of its export potential raises very serious questions for the world about food security and food inflation. Despite all negative background, in 2021/22MY, Ukraine produced a record 86 million metric tons (MMT) of grain and legumes, including 32.2 MMT of wheat. However, the inability to ship all planned grain exports resulted in formation of high carry-over stocks at 17.3 MMT, up three times compare to previous year. There are 480 thousand tons of grains and vegetable oils loaded onto ships that are still in the ports of Pivdennyi, Odesa and Chornomorsk. About 1 million tons of grain is stored at port terminals and warehouses. Unblocking Black Sea ports can bring Ukraine up to $1 billion in additional export revenue per month and add 5% to GDP. In addition, global food inflation will slow down and the threat of famine in import-dependent countries will decrease.
**3. Agricultural Finance Situation
The current agricultural finance situation shows that net farm income from 2021 marked the 6th increase in a row. Information will be provided on past, recent, and future developments regarding the agricultural finance situation with information on the income situation, the financial health of farm operations, and land market trends throughout the U.S.
4. Kansas Net Farm Income Projections for 2022/2023
2021 saw a dramatic rise in both grain and input prices. This has added to the uncertainty that farmers face. Accurate predictions about net farm income could help many with their long term plans and help guide machinery and other input purchases. This session will attempt to predict Kansas net farm income for 2022 and 2023. KFMA farm data from the last several years is used to set a baseline and then projections about yields and prices are used to estimate revenue while projections about major expenses are used to estimate farm expenses. In addition to the overall net farm income projections, this presentation will also analyze expected changes to fertilizer and fuel and also provide more general guidance about other farm expenses.
5. Key International Grain Market Factors in 2022/2023
Guy Allen, Dan O'Brien
World grain markets are now characterized by tight and tightening global supply-demand balances, high and volatile international grain prices, and vulnerability to geopolitical conflicts and crop production shortfalls. In this session we will examine the current “squeeze” on global grain stocks and the resulting high price scenario that now exists. This discussion will examine both “Total World” and “World-Less-China” perspectives for wheat, coarse grains (corn, sorghum, etc.) and oilseeds (soybeans, canola / rapeseed, and sunflowers).
We also discuss the countries that are most vulnerable to grain / food / energy shortages and associated political unrest in the coming year. Key 2023 grain market-related issues will be discussed, concerning a) China (i.e., domestic political risk, grain supply-demand uncertainty, potential trade flow disruptions), b) South America (i.e., inflation and economic risks in Brazil and Argentina, as well as availability of fertilizer for crop production in 2023), and c) the Ukraine-Russia conflict (i.e., international grain market supply-demand and trade flow implications & risks).
Finally, the impact on global and domestic U.S. grain markets from dynamic events in world financial markets will be examined. These include 1) the changing value of the U.S. Dollar and associated foreign exchange rates, 2) trends in global and U.S. inflation rates, and 3) U.S. monetary policy actions in response to these widespread financial problems.
**6. Kansas Land Values and Trends
Kansas land values have been rapidly increasing over the past two years as commodity prices have increased, government payments have provided increased capital, interest rates have been low, and non-ag. investors have taken an interest in farm ground. Most areas of Kansas have currently surpassed the peak value of farm ground seen in 2014 (before the downturn in the farm economy), setting new records in land value. This session will look at trends in ag. land value over recent years and discuss what we are seeing in ag. land sales for the first half of 2022.
7. Lending Trends for Kansas Farms, 2013-2020
Sylvanus Gaku, Jenny Ifft
In this session, we analyze trends in the number and type of lenders used by Kansas farms in the past decade. US and Kansas farms use credit from many lender types: input suppliers, implement dealers, commercial banks and the farm credit system, among others. Increasing sources of credit means more opportunity for agricultural producers and businesses but may also increase financial risk. However, the phenomenon of “multiple borrowing” is not well understood and is difficult to research due to data availability. Using novel lender classifications recently added to KFMA data, this presentation aims to provide an overview of the extent of multiple borrowing in Kansas while achieving the following objectives: (1) identify characteristics of farms engaged in multiple borrowing; (2) provide insights on market share of lender types; and (3) provide an overview of multiple borrowing behavior in high- and low-income periods. The presentation will conclude with implications for potential continued inflation and a general economic downturn.
**8. Planning for the Future of the Farm
Introducing the Office of Farm and Ranch Transition. This session discusses the importance of succession planning and how to get started. We will discuss structured family meetings, successful transition plans, and how the Office is here to support Kansas farmers and ranchers in their efforts.
9. Insights from the Meat Demand Monitor Dashboard
Justin Bina, Glynn Tonsor
The Meat Demand Monitor is a monthly, national survey focused on domestic meat demand with separate consideration of retail and food service decision making. We create a publicly available dashboard to communicate data obtained from the survey and to showcase state-level comparisons.
**10. Beef and Pork Marketing Margins and Their Implications
Jaime Luke, Glynn Tonsor
Marketing margins and “farmer’s-share-of-the-retail-dollar” statistics have been widely-cited in discussions about the status of the U.S. meat-livestock sector, but these measures may be misleading and incorrect. By utilizing scanner-based transaction data from grocery stores across the country, we can establish a different, perhaps more accurate, view of what consumers are truly paying for meat by accounting for sales and promotions that are typically not captured in traditional retail price series. This presentation will walk through how using scanner-based data changes marketing margins and what that could mean for the meat-livestock industry going forward.
**11. Cow-Calf Herd Size: How Has the Industry Responded to Elevated Uncertainty?
Amber Oerly, Glynn Tonsor
The beef cow herd in the United States has been in a state of contraction since 2020 (USDA NASS, 2022). Changes in the beef industry, such as costs, structure, technology, producer and operation demographics, climate events, and barriers to entry and asset fixity, impact cow-calf producer herd expansion and contraction decisions. This presentation will address what factors impact herd expansion and contraction decisions and what the future of the beef cow herd will look like across the United States, given increased economic, environmental, and social uncertainty in the industry.
12. Drought Management for Cattle Producers: Forage Prices and the Role of Insurance
Cordon Rowley, Jenny Ifft
Cattle producers take many actions to manage drought, including maintaining forage inventories, increasing culling rates, and formal insurance products. In this presentation, we will show trends in hay prices and weather. We will then discuss the financial impacts of different drought management strategies and the potential role of formal insurance and FSA programs.
**13. Using Margin Protection Insurance to Manage High Input Costs in 2023: Considerations for Kansas Producers
Margin Protection insurance is available for Kansas soybean and corn farmers and protects against an unexpected decline in the different between county level revenue and costs, including fertilizer, diesel, and interest rates. This is a relatively complicated product that hasn't been widely used in Kansas, but producers may be interested this year due to high input costs and the ability to set a revenue guarantee for 2023 based on current futures prices. After a brief description of MP, this presentation will cover (1) potential expected revenue based on current futures, (2) how well MP input cost estimates match KS corn and soybean input costs and (3) how input cost increases could trigger an indemnity under MP.
**14. Pasture, Rangeland, and Forage Insurance and Conservation Reserve Program
In this presentation, we discuss two US farm programs that are relevant to pastureland, the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) and Pasture, Rainfall, and Forage Rainfall Index Insurance (PRF-RI). We first illustrate these two programs in terms of the program structure, enrollment eligibility, and process. We then analyze the competition between these two programs using county-level enrollment and availability data. We find that the introduction of PRF-RI reduces the enrollment in CRP. This interaction is potentially forcing environmentally sensitive farmland back into production.
15. Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Returns to US Field Crop Production
Jiyeon Kim, Jisang Yu
The economic conditions of US field crop production has experienced various changes in market forces and policy changes. For example, corn acreage has increased in response to growth in biofuel demand and soybean acreage has also risen due to international demand. In this presentation, we will discuss spatial and temporal patterns of returns to US field crop production. We first show changes in the major field crop production, such as crop yields, planted acres, costs, price, and returns at the county level from 1980 to 2020. We then discuss the over-time changes and spatial variations in the average returns and the variability of the returns.
**16. Fall Income Tax Management and Planning
With both commodity and input prices at high levels, year-end tax planning will be important for agricultural producers in 2022. This presentation will provide an introduction to some of the tools and techniques that farms and ranches have at their disposal when it comes to income tax planning and management.
17. A Dynamic Pro-Forma Tool for Kansas Farmer Cooperatives
Gerald Mashange, Brian Briggeman
The Arthur Capper Cooperative Center has developed a dynamic pro-forma tool for farmer cooperatives. The purpose of the tool is to provide users a high degree of control in order to report the future outlook of the cooperative that is in line with management’s expectations.
18. Building Strong Relationships...Producing Excellence -- A History of the Kansas Farm Management Association at Kansas State University
Since 1931 the farm families of Kansas and the agriculture industry have benefited from the education and service delivered by the Department of Agricultural Economics at Kansas State University through the Kansas Farm Management Association (KFMA) program. This session will take a look at that history: explaining how the KFMA program began; exploring some of the successful, difficult and interesting events during the nine decades of program history; and, reviewing some of the data that provides a snapshot of a 90-year history of Kansas agriculture. Throughout the program’s history and continuing today, the KFMA motto, “Building Strong Relationships…Producing Excellence,” is achieved as KFMA Economists work to provide farm-specific financial management information to KFMA members through one-on-one advising relationships, and as an extensive database is made available for use in Agricultural Economics research, teaching and extension programs.
19. Hiring H2A Workers
Jonie James, LaVell Winsor
This session will be an introduction to resources needed when considering hiring H-2A workers. Securing H-2A employees is a complicated process involving many steps and considerations. Due to the complexities, many farmers will have an agency help them navigate the process. During this session, an agency representative will briefly walk through the steps involved in hiring an H-2A employee. Then a family farm will share their experiences of hosting foreign employees, what they learned, what they wished they would have known, and other tips to making an H-2A experience successful.
To Manhattan, Kansas and the K-State Alumni Center (17th & Anderson):
From the east: I-70 to exit 313. North on Hwy 177 to Ft. Riley Blvd then west to 17th Street. North (right) on 17th to Anderson Ave.
From the west: I-70 to exit 303. North on Hwy K114/K18 (Ft. Riley Blvd) to 17th St. North (left) on 17th to Anderson.
From the north: Hwy 77 south to Seth Child Rd (Hwy 113). South on Seth Child to Anderson Ave. East (left) on Anderson to 17th St.
|Holiday Inn - Campus|
Manhattan, KS 66502
Conference Rate: $99.95 + tax / night
Single or Double
Rates valid August 15-17, 2022
Cut-Off Date: July 30, 2022
Use Group Code: RIS
|Four Points, By Sheraton|
530 Richards Dr
Manhattan, KS 66502
K-State Rate: $80 + tax / night
Single or Double
No Cut-Off Date: Ask for K-State Rate
There is limited parking available at the Alumni Center. If spots are available, you can park there. You will need an Alumni Center pass, which will be available as you arrive.
A campsus parking permit is included in the registration fee, for either the lot west of Old Stadium, or for the parking garage. Permits will be available on Thursday morning at the Alumni Center driveway and at the entrance to the parking lot west of the Old Stadium or at the registration table throughout the conference. You MUST obtain your conference parking permit before parking your vehicle on campus. Hang this permit on your rearview mirror, facing the front of your vehicle. This permit is not valid in metered lots.
Parking is permitted only in areas designated for parking
Parking is not permitted on campus streets or drives
Please observe HANDICAP, RESERVED and NO PARKING zones; these are TOW ZONES and violators will be towed.
Limited parking is available in the Alumni Parking. Be sure to get an Alumni Center parking tag from the registration desk.
More parking is available in the lot west of Old Stadium (across Denison Avenue), north of the Catholic Church, using the parking permit, or in the parking garage.